Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

Landscape metrics as indicators of coastal morphology and its use in ecological niche modelling of seagrass species

Dependence of some species on landscape structure has been proved in numerous studies. So far, however, little progress has been made in the integration of landscape metrics in the prediction of species associated with coastal features. Specific landscape metrics were tested as predictors of coastal shape using three coastal features of the Iberian Peninsula (beaches, capes and gulfs) at different scales. We used the landscape metrics in combination with environmental variables to model the niche and find suitable habitats for a seagrass species (Cymodocea nodosa) throughout its entire range of distribution. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We provided the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche and distribution of C. nodosa throughout its range. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the most relevant variables. We identified areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. We also present some preliminary results of testing historical biogeographical hypotheses derived from distribution predictions under Last Glacial Maximum conditions and genetic diversity data.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.