Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performance

Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudoabsence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study showsthat ifwe do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions.

On-line operation of an intelligent seismic detector

This study describes the on-line operation of a seismic detection system to act at the level of a seismic station providing similar role to that of a STA /LTA ratio-based detection algorithms. The intelligent detector is a Support Vector Machine (SVM), trained with data consisting of 2903 patterns extracted from records of the PVAQ station, one of the seismographic network's stations of the Institute of Meteorology of Portugal (IM). Records' spectral variations in time and characteristics were reflected in the SVM input patterns, as a set of values of power spectral density at selected frequencies. To ensure that all patterns of the sample data were within the range of variation of the training set, we used an algorithm to separate the universe of data by hyper-convex polyhedrons, determining in this manner a set of patterns that have a mandatory part of the training set. Additionally, an active learning strategy was conducted, by iteratively incorporating poorly classified cases in the training set. After having been trained, the proposed system was experimented in continuous operation for unseen (out of sample) data, and the SVM detector obtained 97.7% and 98.7% of sensitivity and selectivity, respectively. The same type of ANN presented 88.4 % and 99.4% of sensitivity and selectivity when applied to data of a different seismic station of IM. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.