Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.

Ichthyofauna of the Selvagens Islands. Do small coastal areas show high species richness in the northeastern Atlantic?

The Selvagens Islands are located in the northeastern Atlantic between the Canary Islands and Madeira Island. As a result of their small size, remote location and harsh sea conditions only a few studies have been conducted to describe their marine species diversity. We were able to identify 29 new coastal fish species, an increase of 33% in the ichthyofauna described for these islands (n = 88). There is a prevalence of species with tropical affinities and only 2.3% (n = 2) are endemic to Macaronesia. Considered a stepping-stone colonization vector from the nearest continental shore, as proposed by other authors for this region, the Selvagens Islands host 34.1% of the ichthyofauna described for the much larger Canary Islands (nspecies = 258, submerged area nSelvagensIs. = 2.3%) and 47.3% of the ichthyofauna described for the more distantly located Madeira Island (nspecies = 186, submerged area nSelvagensIs. = 17.9%). Interestingly, 6.8% (n = 6) of the species failed to bridge the gap between the Selvagens Islands and Madeira Island. Data collected so far showed no trend toward an increasing number of species with high dispersal capability. The Selvagens Islands are an example of a high coastal species diversity occurring even in very small areas of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Small area estimation for the price of habitation transaction: comparison of different uncertainty measures of temporal EBLUP

Local level planning requires statistics for small areas, but normally due to cost or logistic constraints, sample surveys are often planned to provide reliable estimates only for large geographical regions and large subgroups of a population.

Analysis of size spectra off northwest Africa: a useful indicator in tropical areas?

Changes in the size spectra of demersal fish communities off Cape Verde (1988, 1994), Guinea (1985-1995), and Mauritania (1987-2001) were studied. Intercepts and slopes showed opposite trends for Guinea and Mauritania, but were relatively stable in spite of a strong increase in landings per unit area. For Cape Verde, there were marked changes in size structure, seemingly inconsistent with the more moderate fishing pressure there. Changes in size structure do not seem to be suitable indicators of the effects of fishing in areas characterized by faster growth rates, small sizes, high species diversity, and complex interrelationships, such as the tropics. (c) 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can small MPAs protect local populations of a coastal flatfish, Solea senegalensis?

The benefits of protection of a small (4.3 km(2)) marine protected area (MPA) for Senegalese sole, Solea senegalensis, were investigated through experimental fishing trials and long-term (up to 293days) passive acoustic telemetry. A total of 106 trammel net sets were carried out between 2007 and 2011. Significant differences in abundance and biomass of sole between bottom types/depths (sandy bottoms between 12 and 20m deep vs muddy bottoms between 35 and 45m deep) were found, but no significant differences were attributable to the implementation of the no-take area. Passive acoustic telemetry revealed that most Senegalese sole spent a large part of their time between first and last detections (average residency index=69%) inside a relatively small area (average 95%=1.2km(2)), during which they preferred sandy bottoms, the most common habitat inside the MPA. Results also demonstrated that Senegalese sole do regular excursions beyond reserve boundaries, eventually emigrating from the MPA. The results suggest that small coastal MPAs providing adequate habitat may protect individuals of this species while allowing for moderate levels of adult spillover to neighbouring areas.

Discards from experimental trammel nets in southern European small-scale fisheries

Trammel net discards in four southern European areas were considerable, with a total of 137 species (79.7% of the total) discarded 65, 105, 46 and 32 species in the Basque country (Spain), Algarve (Portugal), Gulf of Cadiz (Spain) and Cyclades islands (Greece), respectively. The overall discard rate in terms of catch numbers ranged from 15% for the Cyclades to 49% for the Algarve, with the high discard rate for the latter due largely to small pelagic fishes. Discards in the four areas consisted mainly of Trisopterus luscus (Basque country), Scomber japonicus (Algarve), Torpedo torpedo (Cadiz) and Sardina pilchardus (all three areas), and Diplodus annularis in the Cyclades. Strong seasonal variation in discarding was found, reflecting differences in metiers and the versatility of trammel nets as a gear. Discarding, both in terms of numbers of species and individuals decreased with increasing inner panel mesh size. The main reasons for discarding were: (1) species of no or low commercial value (e.g. Scomber japonicus; Torpedo torpedo), (2) commercial species that were damaged or spoiled (e.g. Merluccius merluccius), (3) undersized commercial species (e.g. Lophius piscatorius), and (4) species of commercial value but not caught in sufficient quantities to warrant sale (e.g. Sardina pilchardus). A decrease in soak time together with the appropriate choice of mesh sizes could contribute to a reduction in discarding and to improved sustainability and use of scarce resources in the small-scale, inshore multi-species fisheries of southern Europe. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early reserve effects linked to small home ranges of a commercial fish, Diplodus sargus, Sparidae

Studies that combine both the ecological responses of marine species and protection measures with movement patterns and habitat use are of major importance in order to better understand the performance of marine protected areas (MPA) and how species respond to their implementation. However, few studies have assessed MPA performance by relating local individual movement patterns and the observed reserve effects. In this study, we combined acoustic telemetry with abundance estimates to study the early effects of a recently established small coastal MPA on the local populations of white seabream. The results show that even small, recently established coastal MPAs can increase the abundance and biomass of commercial fish species, provided that target species have small home ranges and exhibit high site fidelity.

Size selectivity of trammel nets in southern European small-scale fisheries

Trammel net size selectivity was studied for the most important metiers in four southern European areas: the Cantabrian Sea (Atlantic, Basque Country, Spain), the Algarve (Atlantic, southern Portugal), the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic, Spain) and the Cyclades Islands (Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Greece). These metiers were: cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and soles (Solea senegalensis, Microchirus azevia, Synaptura lusitanica) in the Algarve and the Gulf of Cadiz, sole (Solea solea) in the Cantabrian Sea and mixed fin-fish in the Cyclades. In each area, experimental trammel nets of six different types (combinations of two large outer panel mesh sizes and three small inner panel meshes) were constructed. Fishing trials were carried out on a seasonal basis (four seasons in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve and Cyclades and two seasons in the Gulf of Cadiz) with chartered commercial fishing vessels. Overall, size selectivity was estimated for 17 out of 28 species for which sufficient data were available. Trammel nets generally caught a wide size range of the most important species, with length frequency distributions that were skewed to the right and/or bi-modal. In many cases the length frequency distributions of the different nets were highly overlapped. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test also showed that the large outer panel meshes generally had no effect in terms of size selectivity, while the opposite was true for the small inner panel ones. Six different selectivity models (normal scale, normal location, gamma, log-normal, bi-modal and gamma semi-Wileman) were fitted to data for the most abundant species in the four areas. For fish, the bi-modal model provided the best fits for the majority of the data sets, with the uni-modal models giving poor fits in most cases. For Sepia officinalis, where trammelling or pocketing was the method of capture in 100% of the cases, the logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood was judged to be more appropriate for describing the size selective properties of the trammel nets. Our results, which are among the first ones on trammel net selectivity in European waters, will be useful for evaluating the impacts of competing gear for the socio-economically important small-scale static gear fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Toward adaptive management of coastal MPAs: The influence of different conservation targets and costs on the design of no-take areas

There is still much discussion on the most appropriate location, size and shape of marine protected areas (MPAs). These three factors were analyzed for a small coastal MPA, the Luiz Saldanha Marine Park (LSMP), for which a very limited amount of local ecological information was available when implemented in 1998. Marxan was used to provide a number of near-optimal solutions considering different levels of protection for the various conservation features and different costs. These solutions were compared with the existing no-take area of the LSMP. Information on 11 habitat types and distribution models for 3 of the most important species for the local artisanal fisheries was considered. The human activities with the highest economic and ecological impact in the study area (commercial and recreational fishing and scuba diving) were used as costs. The results show that the existing no-take area is actually located in the best area. However, the no-take area offers limited protection to vagile fish and covers a very small proportion of some of the available habitats. An increase in the conservation targets led to an increase in the number of no-take areas. The comparative framework used in this study can be applied elsewhere, providing relevant information to local stakeholders and managers in order to proceed with adaptive management. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental influence on commercial fishery landings of small pelagic fish in Portugal

Small pelagic fishes are particularly abundant in areas with high environmental variability (zones of coastal upwelling and areas of tidal mixing and river discharge), and because of this, their abundance suffers large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations. In Portugal, the most important species in terms of landings are European sardine, Atlantic horse mackerel and Atlantic chub mackerel. Small pelagic fish landings account for 62.8 % of the total fish biomass and represent 32.7 % of the economical value of all catches. We have investigated trends in landings of these small pelagic fishes and detected the effects of environmental factors in this fishery. In order to explain the variability of landings of small pelagic fishes, we have used official landings (1965-2012) for trawling and purse seine fisheries and applied generalized linear models, using the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) (annual and winter NAO index), sea surface temperature (SST), wind data (strength and North-South and East-West wind components) and rainfall, as explanatory variables. Regression analysis was used to describe the relationship between landings and SST. The models explained between 50.16 and 51.07 % of the variability of the LPUE, with the most important factors being winter NAO index, SST and wind strength. The LPUE of European sardine and Atlantic horse mackerel was negatively correlated with SST, and LPUE of Atlantic chub mackerel was positively correlated with SST. The use of landings of three important species of small pelagic fishes allowed the detection of variations in landings associated with changes in sea water temperature and NAO index.