Small area estimation using linear mixed models with heterogeneous covariance structures of random effects

The problem of Small Area Estimation is about how to produce reliable estimates of domain characteristics when the sample sizes within the domain is very small ou even zero.

Small Area Estimation of the Mean Price of the Habitation Transaction in Portugal: Methodological and Practical Issues

The Portuguese National Statistical Institute intends to produce estimations for the mean price of the habitation transation.

Small area estimation for the price of habitation transaction: comparison of different uncertainty measures of temporal EBLUP

Local level planning requires statistics for small areas, but normally due to cost or logistic constraints, sample surveys are often planned to provide reliable estimates only for large geographical regions and large subgroups of a population.

Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.

Can small MPAs protect local populations of a coastal flatfish, Solea senegalensis?

The benefits of protection of a small (4.3 km(2)) marine protected area (MPA) for Senegalese sole, Solea senegalensis, were investigated through experimental fishing trials and long-term (up to 293days) passive acoustic telemetry. A total of 106 trammel net sets were carried out between 2007 and 2011. Significant differences in abundance and biomass of sole between bottom types/depths (sandy bottoms between 12 and 20m deep vs muddy bottoms between 35 and 45m deep) were found, but no significant differences were attributable to the implementation of the no-take area. Passive acoustic telemetry revealed that most Senegalese sole spent a large part of their time between first and last detections (average residency index=69%) inside a relatively small area (average 95%=1.2km(2)), during which they preferred sandy bottoms, the most common habitat inside the MPA. Results also demonstrated that Senegalese sole do regular excursions beyond reserve boundaries, eventually emigrating from the MPA. The results suggest that small coastal MPAs providing adequate habitat may protect individuals of this species while allowing for moderate levels of adult spillover to neighbouring areas.

Size selectivity of trammel nets in southern European small-scale fisheries

Trammel net size selectivity was studied for the most important metiers in four southern European areas: the Cantabrian Sea (Atlantic, Basque Country, Spain), the Algarve (Atlantic, southern Portugal), the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic, Spain) and the Cyclades Islands (Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Greece). These metiers were: cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and soles (Solea senegalensis, Microchirus azevia, Synaptura lusitanica) in the Algarve and the Gulf of Cadiz, sole (Solea solea) in the Cantabrian Sea and mixed fin-fish in the Cyclades. In each area, experimental trammel nets of six different types (combinations of two large outer panel mesh sizes and three small inner panel meshes) were constructed. Fishing trials were carried out on a seasonal basis (four seasons in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve and Cyclades and two seasons in the Gulf of Cadiz) with chartered commercial fishing vessels. Overall, size selectivity was estimated for 17 out of 28 species for which sufficient data were available. Trammel nets generally caught a wide size range of the most important species, with length frequency distributions that were skewed to the right and/or bi-modal. In many cases the length frequency distributions of the different nets were highly overlapped. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test also showed that the large outer panel meshes generally had no effect in terms of size selectivity, while the opposite was true for the small inner panel ones. Six different selectivity models (normal scale, normal location, gamma, log-normal, bi-modal and gamma semi-Wileman) were fitted to data for the most abundant species in the four areas. For fish, the bi-modal model provided the best fits for the majority of the data sets, with the uni-modal models giving poor fits in most cases. For Sepia officinalis, where trammelling or pocketing was the method of capture in 100% of the cases, the logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood was judged to be more appropriate for describing the size selective properties of the trammel nets. Our results, which are among the first ones on trammel net selectivity in European waters, will be useful for evaluating the impacts of competing gear for the socio-economically important small-scale static gear fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Small MPAs do not protect cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis)

Marine reserves have been widely implemented as tools for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, amongst other goals. A large number of empirical studies have focused on their effects on reef fish populations. Yet, few studies have looked at their effectiveness on semelparous species such as cephalopods, in spite of their commercial importance in many coastal regions across the globe. In this study we combine behavioural (biotelemetry) and demographic (experimental fishing) data to understand the effects of the Luiz Saldanha Marine Park (LSMP) on local populations of cuttlefish, Sepia officinalis. We used a beyond-BACI design to analyze the possible effect of the implementation of a no-take area on the abundance and biomass of this species and acoustic telemetry data to assess its site fidelity and movements within the study area. Results indicate that there was no detectable effect of the implementation of the no-take area on the abundance or biomass of cuttlefish. We found evidence that acoustically tagged adult cuttlefish leave the reserve a few days or weeks after tagging. The fact that cuttlefish have low site fidelity inside the reserve and large movements across and beyond the study area explains why there is no increase in the population inside the MPA. These results suggest that small coastal marine reserves such as the LSMP are not effective in providing long term protection to cuttlefish populations and, probably, those of other short-lived, highly mobile cephalopods. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ichthyofauna of the Selvagens Islands. Do small coastal areas show high species richness in the northeastern Atlantic?

The Selvagens Islands are located in the northeastern Atlantic between the Canary Islands and Madeira Island. As a result of their small size, remote location and harsh sea conditions only a few studies have been conducted to describe their marine species diversity. We were able to identify 29 new coastal fish species, an increase of 33% in the ichthyofauna described for these islands (n = 88). There is a prevalence of species with tropical affinities and only 2.3% (n = 2) are endemic to Macaronesia. Considered a stepping-stone colonization vector from the nearest continental shore, as proposed by other authors for this region, the Selvagens Islands host 34.1% of the ichthyofauna described for the much larger Canary Islands (nspecies = 258, submerged area nSelvagensIs. = 2.3%) and 47.3% of the ichthyofauna described for the more distantly located Madeira Island (nspecies = 186, submerged area nSelvagensIs. = 17.9%). Interestingly, 6.8% (n = 6) of the species failed to bridge the gap between the Selvagens Islands and Madeira Island. Data collected so far showed no trend toward an increasing number of species with high dispersal capability. The Selvagens Islands are an example of a high coastal species diversity occurring even in very small areas of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

A comparison of monofilament gillnet and small hook longline selectivity in a multispecies artisanal fishery in the Algarve, Southern Portugal

As part of ongoing studies concerned with the small-scale fisheries of the South of Portugal, experimental fishing was carried out with monofilament gillnets and small hook longlines within the same area. Sixty-two species were caught, of which 20 were common to both gears. Pronounced differences in terms of the relative importance of different species in the catches were observed. Size selection patterns also differed, with highly overlapped hook catch distributions and few species showing evidence for size selectivity. In contrast, strong selectivity was characteristic of species which tend to be "wedged" in gillnets. Whereas smaller stretched mesh sizes (particularly 40 and 50 mm) caught significant numbers of illegal sized fish, this was minimal in the longlines. Some implications for management are discussed.