Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.

Successional dynamics in inland dune shrub communities drive changes in functional diversity

Communities can be defined as assemblages of species coexisting under particular environments. The relationship between environment and species are regulated by both environmental requirements –which ultimately determine the species capacity to establish and survive in a particular environment– and the ecological interactions occurring during assembly processes –which also determine community composition by conditioning species coexistence. In this context, plant functional traits are attributes that represent ecological strategies and determine how plants respond to environmental factors and interact with other species. Therefore, the analysis of how traits vary through the dynamics of communities, such as along successions, can give insights about how environmental requirements and species interactions may determine the composition and functional structure of these communities. The xerophytic shrub communities inhabiting inland sand dunes in SW Portugal are characterized by successional processes that are mainly driven by local (edaphic gradients and human disturbance) and regional (climate) processes. Therefore, they constitute an appropriate system for studying species interactions and environmentcommunity co-variations based on functional terms. Using these communities as a model, we evaluate the hypothesis that successional community changes in species composition of xerophytic shrub communities can result in concurrent changes in functional diversity