Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

Combining multispecies home range and distribution models aids assessment of MPA effectiveness

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are today's most important tools for the spatial management and conservation of marine species. Yet, the true protection that they provide to individual fish is unknown, leading to uncertainty associated with MPA effectiveness. In this study, conducted in a recently established coastal MPA in Portugal, we combined the results of individual home range estimation and population distribution models for 3 species of commercial importance and contrasting life histories to infer (1) the size of suitable areas where they would be fully protected and (2) the vulnerability to fishing mortality of each species. Results show that the relationship between MPA size and effective protection is strongly modulated by both the species' home range and the distribution of suitable habitat inside and outside the MPA. This approach provides a better insight into the true potential of MPAs in effectively protecting marine species, since it can reveal the size and location of the areas where protection is most effective and a clear, quantitative estimation of the vulnerability to fishing throughout an entire MPA.