Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.

Chemical and microbial changes during the natural fermentation of strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) fruits

Aguardente de medronho is the name given in Portugal to a spirit made from the fermented fruit of Arbutus unedo (strawberry tree), a plant grown in the Mediterranean region. In order to gain a better understanding of the fermentation process, as it is performed in the farms, a natural fermentation with wild microbiota was carried out during 36 days, and some physicochemical and microbiological parameters were studied. The microbial parameters analyzed were total viable, lactic and acetic acids bacteria, and yeast counts. The physicochemical parameters monitored were sugars, minerals, ethanol, organic acids and pH. Yeasts were the main responsible for the fermentation of the fruits, as the lactic and acetic acids bacteria are absent. As the fermentation progressed, the sugars increased during the first 2 days and gradually decreased along the fermentation period. Maintaining the good quality of the product could contribute to the preservation and valorization of traditional resources that are of great importance to prevent their disappearance.