1 resultado para Monte Carle Simulation
em SAPIENTIA - Universidade do Algarve - Portugal
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Resumo:
The deep-sea lantern shark Etmopterus spinax occurs in the northeast Atlantic on or near the bottoms of the outer continental shelves and slopes, and is regularly captured as bycatch in deep-water commercial fisheries. Given the lack of knowledge on the impacts of fisheries on this species, a demographic analysis using age-based Leslie matrices was carried out. Given the uncertainties in the mortality estimates and in the available life history parameters, several different scenarios, some incorporating stochasticity in the life history parameters (using Monte Carlo simulation), were analyzed. If only natural mortality were considered, even after introducing uncertainties in all parameters, the estimated population growth rate (A) suggested an increasing population. However, if fishing mortality from trawl fisheries is considered, the estimates of A either indicated increasing or declining populations. In these latter cases, the uncertainties in the species reproductive cycle seemed to be particularly relevant, as a 2-year reproductive cycle indicated a stable population, while a longer (3-year cycle) indicated a declining population. The estimated matrix elasticities were in general higher for the survivorship parameters of the younger age classes and tended to decrease for the older ages. This highlights the susceptibility of this deep-sea squaloid to increasing fishing mortality, emphasizing that even though this is a small-sized species, it shows population dynamics patterns more typical of the larger-sized and in general more vulnerable species. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.