Model comparison for temperature estimation inside buildings

This paper presents a comparison between a physical model and an artificial neural network model (NN) for temperature estimation inside a building room. Despite the obvious advantages of the physical model for structure optimisation purposes, this paper will test the performance of neural models for inside temperature estimation. The great advantage of the NN model is a big reduction of human effort time, because it is not needed to develop the structural geometry and structural thermal capacities and to simulate, which consumes a great human effort and great computation time. The NN model deals with this problem as a “black box” problem. We describe the use of the Radial Basis Function (RBF), the training method and a multi-objective genetic algorithm for optimisation/selection of the RBF neural network inputs and number of neurons.

Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.