Modelling antropogenic impact on primary production of sado estuary

The assessment of human impact on complex estuarine systems is a multidisciplinary task that is highly demanding in terms of measurements and fieldwork. Nowadays the use of inexpensive and reliably modeling tools can substantially reduce the amount of measurements needed to characterize a system. These tools are also a convenient way to forecast the future evolution of the system and to study the impact of different scenarios of human influence. In this communication a modeling system composed by hydrodynamic, transport and ecological models is used to assess the current trophic state of Sado Estuary (Portugal) and to predict the future trends of the system based on different scenarios of human intervention. Special care is taken to the impact of changing riverine nutrient loads. Sado estuary is a large European estuary that has been considered until now in good trophic conditions with eutrophication appearing only in some isolated spots. Nevertheless in recent years some studies point out that the situation is changing. Sado estuary is a system with strong environmental opposing interests. It hosts a major industrial and urban center around the city of Setúbal and the upper reaches are used to intensive cultures such as rice. On the other hand the estuary possess an important ecological value since it is used by several important species of fish as a spawning and nursery area and it’s wetlands are used by many species of birds as winter shelters. Due to it’s importance the majority of Sado Estuary is considered as Natural Reserve.