Counting Crime: an explanation of falling crime rates

The current crime decrease is defying traditional criminological theories such as those espoused by Bonger (1916) who researched the relationship between crime and economic conditions and stated that when unemployment rises so does crime. In both the USA and the UK crime has dropped dramatically while unemployment has risen. Both the USA and the UK have been in a deep recession since 2008 but the crime rate has decreased dramatically in both countries. Over the past 20 years it has halved in England and Wales. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Crime is down across the West but more so in Britain (see Figure 1). In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year (2013). Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate in the UK is at its lowest since 1978; in 2013, 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4million incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4million. (The Economist 20/4/13). According to the most recent annual results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), crime is at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981; the most recent annual figures from the survey, Latest figures from the CSEW show there were an estimated 7.3 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over) in England and Wales for the year ending March 2014. This represents a 14% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981.

Trends in Crime

There appears to be a paradox in crime figures according to two reports issued recently by the Home Office in April 2015. The recent crime figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a rise in crime in the UK triggered by a rise in violent crime while the figures released by the the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) (which is based on interviews with members of the public about their experiences of crime) estimated a 7 per cent fall in overall crime to 6.9 million incidents last year. The CSEW, which questions 35,000 people in England and Wales, estimates that crime is now at its lowest level since the study began in 1981.So why have we seen this apparent discrepancy in figures? In reality the ONS figures reflect new reporting practices by the Police and it stated it could no longer approve figures recorded by the police because they were unreliable, prompting major revisions of how each force handles its figures. The renewed focus on the quality of crime recording is thought to have led to improved compliance with national recording standards, leading to proportionally more crimes reported to the police being recorded by them. Improved compliance with recording standards is thought to have particularly affected the way the police recorded crime categories of violence against the person (up 21%) and public order offences (up 14%). These rises were largely off-set by falls in the number of recorded theft offences (down 5%). In contrast to the CSEW, there was a 2% increase in police recorded crime compared with the previous year, with 3.8 million offences recorded in the year ending December 2014 (see Figure 1)