Economic optimization of wind farms in function of the cost of energy produced

Esta tese apresenta um estudo sobre otimização económica de parques eólicos, com o objetivo de obter um algoritmo para otimização económica de parques eólicos através do custo da energia produzida. No estudo utilizou-se uma abordagem multidisciplinar. Inicialmente, apresentam-se as principais tecnologias e diferentes arquiteturas utilizadas nos parques eólicos. Bem como esquemas de funcionamento e gestão dos parques. São identificadas variáveis necessárias e apresenta-se um modelo dimensionamento para cálculo dos custos da energia produzida, tendo-se dado ênfase às instalações onshore e ligados a rede elétrica de distribuição. É feita uma análise rigorosa das características das topologias dos aerogeradores disponíveis no mercado, e simula-se o funcionamento de um parque eólico para testar a validade dos modelos desenvolvidos. Também é implementado um algoritmo para a obtenção de uma resposta otimizada para o ciclo de vida económico do parque eólico em estudo. A abordagem proposta envolve algoritmos para otimização do custo de produção com multiplas funções objetivas com base na descrição matemática da produção de eletricidade. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de otimização linear, que estabelece a ligação entre o custo económico e a produção de eletricidade, tendo em conta ainda as emissões de CO2 em instrumentos de política energética para energia eólica. São propostas expressões para o cálculo do custo de energia com variáveis não convencionais, nomeadamente, para a produção variável do parque eólico, fator de funcionamento e coeficiente de eficiência geral do sistema. Para as duas últimas, também é analisado o impacto da distribuição do vento predominante no sistema de conversão de energia eólica. Verifica-se que os resultados obtidos pelos algoritmos propostos são similares às obtidas por demais métodos numéricos já publicados na comunidade científica, e que o algoritmo de otimização económica sofre influência significativa dos valores obtidos dos coeficientes em questão. Finalmente, é demonstrado que o algoritmo proposto (LCOEwso) é útil para o dimensionamento e cálculo dos custos de capital e O&M dos parques eólicos com informação incompleta ou em fase de projeto. Nesse sentido, o contributo desta tese vem ser desenvolver uma ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão de um gestor, investidor ou ainda agente público em fomentar a implantação de um parque eólico.

Assessing the combined effect of land management and wildfire on runoff and soil erosion in north central Portugal

Strong and sometimes extreme responses in runoff and soil erosion following wildfires have been reported worldwide. However, in the case of North-Central Portugal, little research had been carried out regarding the hydrologic and erosive impacts of several land management activities in recently burnt areas (such as ground preparation, post-fire logging or post-fire mitigation treatments). This study aims to assess post-fire runoff and soil erosion response on Eucalypt and Maritime pine plantations during the first, second and third years following wildfires. The effect of several pre-fire ground preparation operations (ploughed down-slope, contour ploughed and inclined terraces), post-fire logging activities (on both the eucalypt and pine plantations), as well as the application of hydromulch (a post-fire emergency treatment) on overland flow and soil erosion were compared to burnt but undisturbed and untreated areas. The intensive monitoring of runoff, soil erosion and selected soil properties served to determine the main factors involved in post-fire runoff and soil erosion and their spatial and temporal variation. Soil water repellency deserved special attention, due to its supposed important role for overland flow generation. Repeated rainfall simulation experiments (RSE’s), micro-scale runoff plots and bounded sediment fences were carried out and/or installed immediately after the wildfire on seven burnt slopes. Micro-scale runoff plots results under natural rainfall conditions were also compared to the RSE’s results, which was useful for assessing the representativeness of the data obtained with artificial rainfall. The results showed comparable runoff coefficient (20-60%) but lower sediment losses (125-1000 g m-2) than prior studies in Portugal, but especially outside Portugal. Lower sediment losses were related with the historic intensive land use in the area. In evaluating these losses, however, the shallowness and stoniness of the soils, as well as the high organic matter fraction of the eroded sediments (50%) must not be overlooked. Sediment limited erosion was measured in all the ploughed sites, probably due to the time since ploughing (several years). The disturbance of the soil surface cover due to post-fire logging and wood extraction substantially increased sediment losses at both the pine and eucalypt sites. Hydromulch effectiveness in reducing the runoff (70%) and sediment losses (83%) was attributed to the protective high coverage provided by hydromulch. The hydromulch significantly affected the soil cover and other soil properties and these changes also reduced the soil erosion risk. The rainfall amount was the main factor explaining the variance in runoff. However, a shift from rainfall amount to rainfall intensity was detected when either the surface cover or the infiltration capacity (hydrophilic conditions) increased. Sediment losses were controlled by rainfall intensity and surface cover. The role of soil water repellency on runoff generation was not consistent; the overall repellency levels alone were not enough to assess its hydrological impact. Soil water repellency explained runoff generation in the specific-sites model better than in the overall model. Additionally, soil moisture content was a better predictor for soil water repellency than antecedent rainfall. The natural rainfall results confirmed that RSE’s were able to capture the specific sediment losses and its organic matter content as well as the differences between the ploughed and unploughed sites. Repeated RSE’s also captured the seasonal variations in runoff and sediment losses attributed to soil water repellency. These results have implications for post-fire soil erosion modelling and soil conservation practices in the region, or areas with the same land use, climate and soil characteristics. The measured sediment loss, as well as the increasing frequency of ploughing in recently burnt and unburnt eucalypt stands, suggests ploughing is not an effective as a soil conservation measure. Logging activities with less impact are recommended in order to maintain the forest litter protecting the soil surface. Due to its high effectiveness in reducing runoff and soil erosion, hydromulch is recommended for highly sensitive and vulnerable areas.

Soil erosion mitigation following forest wildfires

This study aims to measure the effectiveness of four post-fire emergency techniques for reducing overland flow and soil erosion on the central-Portugal typical forest. The selection and development of these techniques was based on the review of the scientific background, but specially after checking throughout field rainfall simulation experiments which factors were the key for runoff and soil erosion on the specific case of high repellent soils. The forest residue mulch, a new treatment never tested before, was highly effective in reducing runoff and soil erosion in recently burnt eucalypt forest. The logging slash mulch had no obvious effect, but it was attributed to the small amounts of runoff and sediments that the untreated plots produced due to the extensive needle cast following a low severity fire. The hydromulch, a mixture of water, organic fibres, seeds, nutrients and a surfactant used in cutted slopes rehabilitation was also highly successful and was specially indicated for especially sensible areas. The utilization of polyacrylamides, a chemical agent with good performance in agricultural erosion, was not successful in post-fire runoff and soil erosion control, once that did not alter the most important key factor for soil erosion: the ground cover. The development of a new fibre optic turbidity sensor was a successful development on the soil erosion determination methodology, and its patent is being processed in the mean time.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Understanding and modelling hydrological and soil erosion processes in burnt forest catchments

Forest fires implications in overland flow and soil erosion have been researched for several years. Therefore, is widely known that fires enhance hydrological and geomorphological activity worldwide as also in Mediterranean areas. Soil burn severity has been widely used to describe the impacts of fire on soils, and has being recognized as a decisive factor controlling post-fire erosion rates. However, there is no unique definition of the term and the relationship between soil burn severity and post-fire hydrological and erosion response has not yet been fully established. Few studies have assessed post-fire erosion over multiple years, and the authors are aware of none which assess runoff. Small amount of studies concerning pre-fire management practices were also found. In the case of soil erosion models, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (MMF) are well-known models, but not much information is available as regards their suitability in predicting post-fire soil erosion in forest soils. The lack of information is even more pronounced as regards post-fire rehabilitation treatments. The aim of the thesis was to perform an extensive research under the post fire hydrologic and erosive response subject. By understanding the effect of burn severity in ecosystems and its implications regarding post fire hydrological and erosive responses worldwide. Test the effect of different pre-fire land management practices (unplowed, downslope plowed and contour plowed) and time-since-fire, in the post fire hydrological and erosive response, between the two most common land uses in Portugal (pine and eucalypt). Assess the performance of two widely-known erosion models (RUSLE and Revised MMF), to predict soil erosion rates during first year following two wildfires of distinctive burn severity. Furthermore, to apply these two models considering different post-fire rehabilitation treatments in an area severely affected by fire. Improve model estimations of post-fire runoff and erosion rates in two different land uses (pine and eucalypt) using the revised MMF. To assess these improvements by comparing estimations and measurements of runoff and erosion, in two recently burned sites, as also with their post fire rehabilitation treatments. Model modifications involved: (1) focusing on intra-annual changes in parameters to incorporate seasonal differences in runoff and erosion; and (2) inclusion of soil water repellency in runoff predictions. Additionally, validate these improvements with the application of the model to other pine and eucalypt sites in Central Portugal. The review and meta-analysis showed that fire occurrence had a significant effect on the hydrological and erosive response. However, this effect was only significantly higher with increasing soil burn severity for inter-rill erosion, and not for runoff. This study furthermore highlighted the incoherencies between existing burn severity classifications, and proposed an unambiguous classification. In the case of the erosion plots with natural rainfall, land use factor affected annual runoff while land management affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts significantly. Time-since-fire had an important effect in erosion amounts among unplowed sites, while for eucalypt sites time affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts. At all studied sites runoff coefficients increase over the four years of monitoring. In the other hand, sediment concentration in the runoff, recorded a decrease during the same period. Reasons for divergence from the classic post-fire recovery model were also explored. Short fire recurrence intervals and forest management practices are viewed as the main reasons for the observed severe and continuing soil degradation. The revised MMF model presented reasonable accuracy in the predictions while the RUSLE clearly overestimated the observed erosion rates. After improvements: the revised model was able to predict first-year post-fire plot-scale runoff and erosion rates for both forest types, these predictions were improved both by the seasonal changes in the model parameters; and by considering the effect of soil water repellency on the runoff, individual seasonal predictions were considered accurate, and the inclusion of the soil water repellency in the model also improved the model at this base. The revised MMF model proved capable of providing a simple set of criteria for management decisions about runoff and erosion mitigation measures in burned areas. The erosion predictions at the validation sites attested both to the robustness of the model and of the calibration parameters, suggesting a potential wider application.