Modelling the Minho river plume intrusion into the rias baixas

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician Coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). This discharge is important to determine the hydrological patterns adjacent to its mouth, particularly close to the Galician coastal region. The buoyancy generated by the Minho plume can flood the Rias Baixas for long periods, reversing the normal estuarine density gradients. Thus, it becomes important to analyse its dynamics as well as the thermohaline patterns of the areas affected by the freshwater spreading. Thus, the main aim of this work was to study the propagation of the Minho estuarine plume to the Rias Baixas, establishing the conditions in which this plume affects the circulation and hydrographic features of these coastal systems, through the development and application of the numerical model MOHID. For this purpose, the hydrographic features of the Rias Baixas mouths were studied. It was observed that at the northern mouths, due to their shallowness, the heat fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are the major forcing, influencing the water temperature, while at the southern mouths the influence of the upwelling events and the Minho River discharge were more frequent. The salinity increases from south to north, revealing that the observed low values may be caused by the Minho River freshwater discharge. An assessment of wind data along the Galician coast was carried out, in order to evaluate the applicability of the study to the dispersal of the Minho estuarine plume. Firstly, a comparative analysis between winds obtained from land meteorological stations and offshore QuikSCAT satellite were performed. This comparison revealed that satellite data constitute a good approach to study wind induced coastal phenomena. However, since the numerical model MOHID requires wind data with high spatial and temporal resolution close to the coast, results of the forecasted model WRF were added to the previous study. The analyses revealed that the WRF model data is a consistent tool to obtain representative wind data near the coast, showing good results when comparing with in situ wind observations from oceanographic buoys. To study the influence of the Minho buoyant discharge influence on the Rias Baixas, a set of three one-way nested models was developed and implemented, using the numerical model MOHID. The first model domain is a barotropic model and includes the whole Iberian Peninsula coast. The second and third domains are baroclinic models, where the second domain is a coarse representation of the Rias Baixas and adjacent coastal area, while the third includes the same area with a higher resolution. A bi-dimensional model was also implemented in the Minho estuary, in order to quantify the flow (and its properties) that the estuary injects into the ocean. The chosen period for the Minho estuarine plume propagation validation was the spring of 1998, since a high Minho River discharge was reported, as well as favourable wind patterns to advect the estuarine plume towards the Rias Baixas, and there was field data available to compare with the model predictions. The obtained results show that the adopted nesting methodology was successful implemented. Model predictions reproduce accurately the hydrodynamics and thermohaline patterns on the Minho estuary and Rias Baixas. The importance of the Minho river discharge and the wind forcing in the event of May 1998 was also studied. The model results showed that a continuous moderate Minho River discharge combined with southerly winds is enough to reverse the Rias Baixas circulation pattern, reducing the importance of the occurrence of specific events of high runoff values. The conditions in which the estuarine plume Minho affects circulation and hydrography of the Rias Baixas were evaluated. The numerical results revealed that the Minho estuarine plume responds rapidly to wind variations and is also influenced by the bathymetry and morphology of the coastline. Without wind forcing, the plume expands offshore, creating a bulge in front of the river mouth. When the wind blows southwards, the main feature is the offshore extension of the plume. Otherwise, northward wind spreads the river plume towards the Rias Baixas. The plume is confined close to the coast, reaching the Rias Baixas after 1.5 days. However, for Minho River discharges higher than 800 m3 s-1, the Minho estuarine plume reverses the circulation patterns in the Rias Baixas. It was also observed that the wind stress and Minho River discharge are the most important factors influencing the size and shape of the Minho estuarine plume. Under the same conditions, the water exchange between Rias Baixas was analysed following the trajectories particles released close to the Minho River mouth. Over 5 days, under Minho River discharges higher than 2100 m3 s-1 combined with southerly winds of 6 m s-1, an intense water exchange between Rias was observed. However, only 20% of the particles found in Ria de Pontevedra come directly from the Minho River. In summary, the model application developed in this study contributed to the characterization and understanding of the influence of the Minho River on the Rias Baixas circulation and hydrography, highlighting that this methodology can be replicated to other coastal systems.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Economic optimization of wind farms in function of the cost of energy produced

Esta tese apresenta um estudo sobre otimização económica de parques eólicos, com o objetivo de obter um algoritmo para otimização económica de parques eólicos através do custo da energia produzida. No estudo utilizou-se uma abordagem multidisciplinar. Inicialmente, apresentam-se as principais tecnologias e diferentes arquiteturas utilizadas nos parques eólicos. Bem como esquemas de funcionamento e gestão dos parques. São identificadas variáveis necessárias e apresenta-se um modelo dimensionamento para cálculo dos custos da energia produzida, tendo-se dado ênfase às instalações onshore e ligados a rede elétrica de distribuição. É feita uma análise rigorosa das características das topologias dos aerogeradores disponíveis no mercado, e simula-se o funcionamento de um parque eólico para testar a validade dos modelos desenvolvidos. Também é implementado um algoritmo para a obtenção de uma resposta otimizada para o ciclo de vida económico do parque eólico em estudo. A abordagem proposta envolve algoritmos para otimização do custo de produção com multiplas funções objetivas com base na descrição matemática da produção de eletricidade. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de otimização linear, que estabelece a ligação entre o custo económico e a produção de eletricidade, tendo em conta ainda as emissões de CO2 em instrumentos de política energética para energia eólica. São propostas expressões para o cálculo do custo de energia com variáveis não convencionais, nomeadamente, para a produção variável do parque eólico, fator de funcionamento e coeficiente de eficiência geral do sistema. Para as duas últimas, também é analisado o impacto da distribuição do vento predominante no sistema de conversão de energia eólica. Verifica-se que os resultados obtidos pelos algoritmos propostos são similares às obtidas por demais métodos numéricos já publicados na comunidade científica, e que o algoritmo de otimização económica sofre influência significativa dos valores obtidos dos coeficientes em questão. Finalmente, é demonstrado que o algoritmo proposto (LCOEwso) é útil para o dimensionamento e cálculo dos custos de capital e O&M dos parques eólicos com informação incompleta ou em fase de projeto. Nesse sentido, o contributo desta tese vem ser desenvolver uma ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão de um gestor, investidor ou ainda agente público em fomentar a implantação de um parque eólico.