Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Plutonismo granítico varisco no Centro Norte de Portugal

O complexo batolítico das Beiras está localizado na Zona Centro Ibérica (ZCI), no centro norte de Portugal. É predominantemente composto por rochas granitóides instaladas em metassedimentos de idade Neoproterozóica - Câmbrica Inferior, Ordovícica e Carbonífera Superior, durante ou após a última fase de deformação dúctil varisca (D3). No seu conjunto, as rochas granitóides do Batólito das Beiras cobrem um amplo espectro de idades (sin-, tardi- e tardi-pós-D3) e tipologias (tipo S e transicionais I-S). Neste trabalho apresentam-se dados petrográficos, mineralógicos, geoquímicos e isotópicos para estas intrusões e discutem-se os principais processos envolvidos na sua génese.

New tools for cognitive and motor rehabilitation: development and clinical validation

Nervous system disorders are associated with cognitive and motor deficits, and are responsible for the highest disability rates and global burden of disease. Their recovery paths are vulnerable and dependent on the effective combination of plastic brain tissue properties, with complex, lengthy and expensive neurorehabilitation programs. This work explores two lines of research, envisioning sustainable solutions to improve treatment of cognitive and motor deficits. Both projects were developed in parallel and shared a new sensible approach, where low-cost technologies were integrated with common clinical operative procedures. The aim was to achieve more intensive treatments under specialized monitoring, improve clinical decision-making and increase access to healthcare. The first project (articles I – III) concerned the development and evaluation of a web-based cognitive training platform (COGWEB), suitable for intensive use, either at home or at institutions, and across a wide spectrum of ages and diseases that impair cognitive functioning. It was tested for usability in a memory clinic setting and implemented in a collaborative network, comprising 41 centers and 60 professionals. An adherence and intensity study revealed a compliance of 82.8% at six months and an average of six hours/week of continued online cognitive training activities. The second project (articles IV – VI) was designed to create and validate an intelligent rehabilitation device to administer proprioceptive stimuli on the hemiparetic side of stroke patients while performing ambulatory movement characterization (SWORD). Targeted vibratory stimulation was found to be well tolerated and an automatic motor characterization system retrieved results comparable to the first items of the Wolf Motor Function Test. The global system was tested in a randomized placebo controlled trial to assess its impact on a common motor rehabilitation task in a relevant clinical environment (early post-stroke). The number of correct movements on a hand-to-mouth task was increased by an average of 7.2/minute while the probability to perform an error decreased from 1:3 to 1:9. Neurorehabilitation and neuroplasticity are shifting to more neuroscience driven approaches. Simultaneously, their final utility for patients and society is largely dependent on the development of more effective technologies that facilitate the dissemination of knowledge produced during the process. The results attained through this work represent a step forward in that direction. Their impact on the quality of rehabilitation services and public health is discussed according to clinical, technological and organizational perspectives. Such a process of thinking and oriented speculation has led to the debate of subsequent hypotheses, already being explored in novel research paths.