Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Environmental impacts of freshwater use and suspended solids in life cycle assessment

Perturbation of natural ecosystems, namely by increasing freshwater use and its degradative use, as well as topsoil erosion by water of land-use production systems, have been emerging as topics of high environmental concern. Freshwater use has become a focus of attention in the last few years for all stakeholders involved in the production of goods, mainly agro-industrial and forest-based products, which are freshwater-intensive consumers, requiring large inputs of green and blue water. This thesis presents a global review on the available Water Footprint Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based methods for measuring and assessing the environmental relevance of freshwater resources use, based on a life cycle perspective. Using some of the available midpoint LCA-based methods, the freshwater use-related impacts of a Portuguese wine (white ‘vinho verde’) were assessed. However, the relevance of environmental green water has been neglected because of the absence of a comprehensive impact assessment method associated with green water flows. To overcome this constraint, this thesis helps to improve and enhance the LCA-based methods by providing a midpoint and spatially explicit Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) method for assessing impacts on terrestrial green water flow and addressing reductions in surface blue water production caused by reductions in surface runoff due to land-use production systems. The applicability of the proposed method is illustrated by a case study on Eucalyptus globulus conducted in Portugal, as the growth of short rotation forestry is largely dependent on local precipitation. Topsoil erosion by water has been characterised as one of the most upsetting problems for rivers. Because of this, this thesis also focuses on the ecosystem impacts caused by suspended solids (SS) from topsoil erosion that reach freshwater systems. A framework to conduct a spatially distributed SS delivery to freshwater streams and a fate and effect LCIA method to derive site-specific characterisation factors (CFs) for endpoint damage on aquatic ecosystem diversity, namely on algae, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrates organisms, were developed. The applicability of this framework, combined with the derived site-specific CFs, is shown by conducting a case study on E. globulus stands located in Portugal as an example of a land use based system. A spatially explicit LCA assessment was shown to be necessary, since the impacts associated with both green water flows and SS vary greatly as a function of spatial location.