Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Grounding human vocabulary in robot perception through interaction

This thesis addresses the problem of word learning in computational agents. The motivation behind this work lies in the need to support language-based communication between service robots and their human users, as well as grounded reasoning using symbols relevant for the assigned tasks. The research focuses on the problem of grounding human vocabulary in robotic agent’s sensori-motor perception. Words have to be grounded in bodily experiences, which emphasizes the role of appropriate embodiments. On the other hand, language is a cultural product created and acquired through social interactions. This emphasizes the role of society as a source of linguistic input. Taking these aspects into account, an experimental scenario is set up where a human instructor teaches a robotic agent the names of the objects present in a visually shared environment. The agent grounds the names of these objects in visual perception. Word learning is an open-ended problem. Therefore, the learning architecture of the agent will have to be able to acquire words and categories in an openended manner. In this work, four learning architectures were designed that can be used by robotic agents for long-term and open-ended word and category acquisition. The learning methods used in these architectures are designed for incrementally scaling-up to larger sets of words and categories. A novel experimental evaluation methodology, that takes into account the openended nature of word learning, is proposed and applied. This methodology is based on the realization that a robot’s vocabulary will be limited by its discriminatory capacity which, in turn, depends on its sensors and perceptual capabilities. An extensive set of systematic experiments, in multiple experimental settings, was carried out to thoroughly evaluate the described learning approaches. The results indicate that all approaches were able to incrementally acquire new words and categories. Although some of the approaches could not scale-up to larger vocabularies, one approach was shown to learn up to 293 categories, with potential for learning many more.