Modelling the Minho river plume intrusion into the rias baixas

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician Coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). This discharge is important to determine the hydrological patterns adjacent to its mouth, particularly close to the Galician coastal region. The buoyancy generated by the Minho plume can flood the Rias Baixas for long periods, reversing the normal estuarine density gradients. Thus, it becomes important to analyse its dynamics as well as the thermohaline patterns of the areas affected by the freshwater spreading. Thus, the main aim of this work was to study the propagation of the Minho estuarine plume to the Rias Baixas, establishing the conditions in which this plume affects the circulation and hydrographic features of these coastal systems, through the development and application of the numerical model MOHID. For this purpose, the hydrographic features of the Rias Baixas mouths were studied. It was observed that at the northern mouths, due to their shallowness, the heat fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are the major forcing, influencing the water temperature, while at the southern mouths the influence of the upwelling events and the Minho River discharge were more frequent. The salinity increases from south to north, revealing that the observed low values may be caused by the Minho River freshwater discharge. An assessment of wind data along the Galician coast was carried out, in order to evaluate the applicability of the study to the dispersal of the Minho estuarine plume. Firstly, a comparative analysis between winds obtained from land meteorological stations and offshore QuikSCAT satellite were performed. This comparison revealed that satellite data constitute a good approach to study wind induced coastal phenomena. However, since the numerical model MOHID requires wind data with high spatial and temporal resolution close to the coast, results of the forecasted model WRF were added to the previous study. The analyses revealed that the WRF model data is a consistent tool to obtain representative wind data near the coast, showing good results when comparing with in situ wind observations from oceanographic buoys. To study the influence of the Minho buoyant discharge influence on the Rias Baixas, a set of three one-way nested models was developed and implemented, using the numerical model MOHID. The first model domain is a barotropic model and includes the whole Iberian Peninsula coast. The second and third domains are baroclinic models, where the second domain is a coarse representation of the Rias Baixas and adjacent coastal area, while the third includes the same area with a higher resolution. A bi-dimensional model was also implemented in the Minho estuary, in order to quantify the flow (and its properties) that the estuary injects into the ocean. The chosen period for the Minho estuarine plume propagation validation was the spring of 1998, since a high Minho River discharge was reported, as well as favourable wind patterns to advect the estuarine plume towards the Rias Baixas, and there was field data available to compare with the model predictions. The obtained results show that the adopted nesting methodology was successful implemented. Model predictions reproduce accurately the hydrodynamics and thermohaline patterns on the Minho estuary and Rias Baixas. The importance of the Minho river discharge and the wind forcing in the event of May 1998 was also studied. The model results showed that a continuous moderate Minho River discharge combined with southerly winds is enough to reverse the Rias Baixas circulation pattern, reducing the importance of the occurrence of specific events of high runoff values. The conditions in which the estuarine plume Minho affects circulation and hydrography of the Rias Baixas were evaluated. The numerical results revealed that the Minho estuarine plume responds rapidly to wind variations and is also influenced by the bathymetry and morphology of the coastline. Without wind forcing, the plume expands offshore, creating a bulge in front of the river mouth. When the wind blows southwards, the main feature is the offshore extension of the plume. Otherwise, northward wind spreads the river plume towards the Rias Baixas. The plume is confined close to the coast, reaching the Rias Baixas after 1.5 days. However, for Minho River discharges higher than 800 m3 s-1, the Minho estuarine plume reverses the circulation patterns in the Rias Baixas. It was also observed that the wind stress and Minho River discharge are the most important factors influencing the size and shape of the Minho estuarine plume. Under the same conditions, the water exchange between Rias Baixas was analysed following the trajectories particles released close to the Minho River mouth. Over 5 days, under Minho River discharges higher than 2100 m3 s-1 combined with southerly winds of 6 m s-1, an intense water exchange between Rias was observed. However, only 20% of the particles found in Ria de Pontevedra come directly from the Minho River. In summary, the model application developed in this study contributed to the characterization and understanding of the influence of the Minho River on the Rias Baixas circulation and hydrography, highlighting that this methodology can be replicated to other coastal systems.

Prevenção e detecção de incêndios

Os fogos florestais, embora possam ser encarados como um fenómeno natural, constituem igualmente uma ameaça com impactos negativos a vários níveis. A alteração dos regimes naturais do fogo por acção antrópica tem vindo a maximizar o potencial catastrófico do fenómeno em diferentes regiões do planeta, destacando-se, em particular, a Região Mediterrânica, onde o fogo constitui uma perturbação recorrente associada, por um lado, às características climáticas desta região e, por outro, às práticas tradicionais decorrentes da presença humana nessa área, numa extensão temporal de milhares de anos. Em Portugal, o problema dos fogos florestais assume uma expressividade de particular relevo, colocando-o entre os países do sul da Europa mais atingidos pelo fogo a cada Verão. Reconhecendo o papel das condições meteorológicas nas interacções envolvidas no processo de deflagração e propagação de incêndios, a identificação de condições meteorológicas propícias à ocorrência de incêndios, expressa sob a forma de índices de risco reveste-se de crucial importância para as operações de prevenção e combate aos incêndios, para além da mais-valia que constituem para os restantes sectores da sociedade. Adicionalmente, a detecção e monitorização de ocorrências de incêndios a partir de satélites tem vindo a assumir um papel preponderante, revelando-se fundamental enquanto fonte de alerta e pelas potencialidades que as bases de dados resultantes da observação contínua da Terra pelos satélites oferecem, no que às mais diversas áreas de investigação diz respeito. O presente trabalho explora, nas vertentes da prevenção de incêndios, a utilização de previsões de tempo de alta resolução espacial obtidas com o modelo WRF para a determinação das componentes do sistema FWI canadiano e sua disponibilização operacional. Os resultados apontam para um impacto positivo, em virtude do incremento da resolução espacial, da representação espacial do risco meteorológico de incêndio no território português. Paralelamente, apresentam-se os resultados do desenvolvimento de produtos de detecção de incêndios activos a partir da infra-estrutura de recepção de dados de satélite implementadas na Universidade de Aveiro, destacando a sua adequabilidade para a monitorização e identificação, em tempo quase-real, da ocorrência de fogos florestais em Portugal Continental.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

The impact of biofuels for road traffic on air quality : a modelling approach

The selection of the energy source to power the transport sector is one of the main current concerns, not only relative with the energy paradigm but also due to the strong influence of road traffic in urban areas, which highly affects human exposure to air pollutants and human health and quality of life. Due to current important technical limitations of advanced energy sources for transportation purposes, biofuels are seen as an alternative way to power the world’s motor vehicles in a near-future, helping to reduce GHG emissions while at the same time stimulating rural development. Motivated by European strategies, Portugal, has been betting on biofuels to meet the Directive 2009/28/CE goals for road transports using biofuels, especially biodiesel, even though, there is unawareness regarding its impacts on air quality. In this sense, this work intends to clarify this issue by trying to answer the following question: can biodiesel use contribute to a better air quality over Portugal, particularly over urban areas? The first step of this work consisted on the characterization of the national biodiesel supply chain, which allows verifying that the biodiesel chain has problems of sustainability as it depends on raw materials importation, therefore not contributing to reduce the external energy dependence. Next, atmospheric pollutant emissions and air quality impacts associated to the biodiesel use on road transports were assessed, over Portugal and in particular over the Porto urban area, making use of the WRF-EURAD mesoscale numerical modelling system. For that, two emission scenarios were defined: a reference situation without biodiesel use and a scenario reflecting the use of a B20 fuel. Through the comparison of both scenarios, it was verified that the use of B20 fuels helps in controlling air pollution, promoting reductions on PM10, PM2.5, CO and total NMVOC concentrations. It was also verified that NO2 concentrations decrease over the mainland Portugal, but increase in the Porto urban area, as well as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acrolein emissions in the both case studies. However, the use of pure diesel is more injurious for human health due to its dominant VOC which have higher chronic hazard quotients and hazard indices when compared to B20.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Alteração climática dos índices de estabilidade na Peninsula Iberica

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a comparação da intensidade, frequência e distribuição de um conjunto de índices de estabilidade atmosférica simulados entre o clima histórico (1986-2005) e um cenário climático (2081-2100) na Península Ibérica. Considerou-se o cenário de emissão de gases RCP8.5. Estes índices avaliam a instabilidade atmosférica que é um elemento fundamental e percursor no desenvolvimento de tempestades. Através dos seus valores limite, é possível estimar alterações na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos que se poderão desenvolver no clima futuro, relativamente ao histórico. Primeiro, utilizou-se um conjunto de simulações do WRF com dois forçamentos: reanálises do ERA-Interim e um modelo do Max Planck Institute. De seguida, foram calculados diferentes índices de estabilidade. A validação do modelo consistiu no cálculo das médias sazonais, da sua diferença e das respetivas PDFs dos índices simulados pelo WRF-MPI e WRF-ERA. Verifica-se uma sobrestimação do CAPE, SHR6km (vento de corte) e SWEAT simulados pelo WRF-MPI. No entanto, nos campos dos índices simulados pelos dois forçamentos para o período histórico, verifica-se que os padrões espaciais são semelhantes apesar das diferenças na intensidade. Como as alterações climáticas dos índices são avaliadas através de diferenças, estas discrepâncias não invalidam a utilização do modelo no futuro. Posteriormente foram estudadas as alterações climáticas dos índices através da comparação entre o clima histórico e futuro. Estima-se um aumento da intensidade do CAPE e uma diminuição (aumento) da frequência de eventos com intensidade reduzida (elevada). Estas alterações são robustas no verão e outono. Também é esperado um aumento da intensidade do SHR6km na primavera e inverno tal como da frequência de SHR6km elevado nestas estações e uma redução da intensidade e da frequência de eventos com SHR6km elevado nas restantes. Haverá um possível aumento robusto da intensidade do SWEAT no verão e outono, bem como da frequência destes valores. Concluindo, será provável um aumento da frequência dos ambientes favoráveis ao desenvolvimento de tempestades, devido a uma maior intensidade e probabilidade de ocorrência de valores extremos do CAPE e do SWEAT. No entanto, a redução do SHR6km, poderá diminuir a organização das tempestades e o seu tempo de vida.

Simulação do transporte de poeiras radioactivas resultantes de um acidente no complexo de Angra dos Reis, Brasil

O objetivo da avaliação de impactos ambientais (AIA) é permitir uma análise integrada de possíveis impactos diretos ou indiretos ao meio ambiente decorrentes da implantação e operação de empreendimentos, de forma a propor de medidas ou programas que visem evitar, mitigar ou compensar tais impactos. Para tanto é necessário conhecer as diversas características das áreas direta e indiretamente afetadas pela instalação de um projeto, tais como as condições meteorológicas e climatológicas. Estas também são relevantes no estudo das emissões em cenários de operação regular ou acidental de empreendimentos, dada sua influência nas condições de transporte e de dispersão de poluentes na atmosfera. Neste trabalho é realizado um estudo das condições de dispersão de poluentes na atmosfera para a região da Central Nuclear Almirante Álvaro Alberto (CNAAA) em Angra dos Reis, no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, utilizando o modelo WRF, considerando um cenário acidental com liberações por 48 horas. Os dois episódios simulados representam os regimes de tempo predominantes na região obtidos a partir da análise pelo o método k-means sobre as EOFs para o campo de pressões ao nível médio do mar entre os anos de 1985 e 2014. A aplicação da metodologia dos regimes de tempo permite observar os fenômenos meteorológicos de grande escala persistentes e recorrentes sobre uma dada região, servindo como uma ferramenta para a elaboração de estudos e documentos técnicos que fundamentem a decisão dos órgãos reguladores.