Post-fire vegetation regeneration in Portugal : implications for management

This thesis aims at improving the knowledge on the post-fire vegetation regeneration. For that, forests and shrublands were studied, after forest fires and experimental fires. Maritime Pine (Pinus pinaster) recruitment after fire was studied. Fire severity was evidenced as a major effect on this process. High crown fire severity can combust the pines, destroying the seed bank and impeding post fire pine recruitment. However, crown combustion also influences the post-fire conditions on the soil surface, since high crown combustion (HCC) will decrease the postfire needle cast. After low crown combustion (LCC) (scorched rather than torched crowns), a considerable needle cover was observed, along with a higher density of pine seedlings. The overall trends of post-fire recruitment among LCC and HCC areas could be significantly attributed to cover by needles, as well by the estimation of fire severity using the diameters of the burned twigs (TSI). Fire increased the germination from the soil seed bank of a Pinus pinaster forest, and the effects were also related with fire severity. The densities of seedlings of the dominant taxa (genus Erica and Calluna vulgaris) were contrastingly affected in relation to the unburned situation, depending on fire severity, as estimated from the degree of fire-induced crown damage (LCC/HCC), as well as using a severity index based on the diameters of remaining twigs (TSI). Low severity patches had an increase in germination density relatively to the control, while high severity patches suffered a reduction. After an experimental fire in a heathland dominated by Pterospartum tridentatum, Erica australis and E. umbellata, no net differences in seedling emergence were observed, in relation to the pre-fire situation. However, rather than having no effect, the heterogeneity of temperatures caused by fire promoted caused divergent effects over the burned plot in terms of Erica australis germination – a progressive increased was observed in the plots were maximum temperature recorded ranged from 29 to 42.5ºC and decreased in plots with maximum temperature ranging from 51.5 to 74.5ºC. In this heathland, the seed density of two of the main species (E. australis and E. umbellata) was higher under their canopies, but the same was not true for P. tridentatum. The understory regeneration in pine and eucalypt stands, 5 to 6 years post fire, has been strongly associated with post-fire management practices. The effect of forest type was, comparatively, insignificant. Soil tilling, tree harvesting and shrub clearance, were linked to lower soil cover percentages. However, while all these management operations negatively affected the cover of resprouters, seeders were not affected by soil tilling. A strong influence of biogeographic region was identified, suggesting that more vulnerable regions may suffer higher effects of management, even under comparatively lower management pressure than more productive regions. This emphasizes the need to adequate post-fire management techniques to the target regions.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.