Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Characterization of water-soluble organic matter from urban aerosols

Water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) from atmospheric particles comprises a complex array of molecular structures that play an important role on the physic-chemical properties of atmospheric particles and, therefore, are linked to several global-relevant atmospheric processes which impact the climate and public health. Due to the large variety of sources and formation processes, adequate knowledge on WSOM composition and its effects on the properties of atmospheric aerosol are still limited. Therefore, this thesis aims at providing new insights on the molecular composition of WSOM from fine atmospheric aerosols typical of an urban area (Aveiro, Portugal). In a first step, adsorption phenomena of semivolatile organic compounds on quartz fibre filters employed in the collection of atmospheric aerosols were assessed. Afterwards, atmospheric aerosol samples were collected during fifteen months, on a weekly basis. A mass balance of aerosol samples was performed in order to set the relative contribution of elemental carbon, WSOM and water-insoluble organic matter to the aerosol mass collected at the urban area of Aveiro, with a special focus on the assessment of the influence of different meteorological conditions. In order to assess the chemical complexity of the WSOM from urban aerosols, their structural characteristics were studied by means of Fourier transform infrared infrared - Attenuated Total Reflectance (FTIR-ATR) and solid-state cross polarization with magic angle spinning 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (CPMAS 13C NMR) spectroscopies, as well as their elemental composition. The structural characterization of aerosol WSOM samples collected in the urban area highlighted a highly complex mixture of functional groups. It was concluded that aliphatic and aromatic structures, hydroxyl groups and carboxyl groups are characteristic to all samples. The semi-quantitative assessment of the CPMAS 13C NMR data showed different distributions of the various functional groups between the aerosol samples collected at different seasons. Moreover, the presence of signals typical of lignin-derived structures in both CPMAS 13C NMR and FTIR-ATR spectra of the WSOM samples from the colder seasons, highlights the major contribution of biomass burning processes in domestic fireplaces, during low temperature conditions, into the bulk chemical properties of WSOM from urban aerosols. A comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography (LC x LC) method, on-line coupled to a diode array, fluorescence, and evaporative light scattering detectors, was employed for resolving the chemical heterogeneity of the aerosol WSOM samples and, simultaneously, to map the hydrophobicity versus the molecular weight distribution of the samples. The LC x LC method employed a mixed-mode hydrophilic interaction column operating under aqueous reversed phase mode in the first dimension, and a size-exclusion column in the second dimension, which was found to be useful for separating the aerosol WSOM samples into various fractions with distinct molecular weight and hydrophobic features. The estimative of the average molecular weight (Mw) distribution of the urban aerosol WSOM samples ranged from 48 to 942 Da and from 45 to 1241 Da in terms of UV absorption and fluorescence detection, respectively. Findings suggest that smaller Mw group fractions seem to be related to a more hydrophobic nature.