Accidental release of hazardous gases: modelling and assessing risk

The renewed concern in assessing risks and consequences from technological hazards in industrial and urban areas continues emphasizing the development of local-scale consequence analysis (CA) modelling tools able to predict shortterm pollution episodes and exposure effects on humans and the environment in case of accident with hazardous gases (hazmat). In this context, the main objective of this thesis is the development and validation of the EFfects of Released Hazardous gAses (EFRHA) model. This modelling tool is designed to simulate the outflow and atmospheric dispersion of heavy and passive hazmat gases in complex and build-up areas, and to estimate the exposure consequences of short-term pollution episodes in accordance to regulatory/safety threshold limits. Five main modules comprising up-to-date methods constitute the model: meteorological, terrain, source term, dispersion, and effects modules. Different initial physical states accident scenarios can be examined. Considered the main core of the developed tool, the dispersion module comprises a shallow layer modelling approach capable to account the main influence of obstacles during the hazmat gas dispersion phenomena. Model validation includes qualitative and quantitative analyses of main outputs by the comparison of modelled results against measurements and/or modelled databases. The preliminary analysis of meteorological and source term modules against modelled outputs from extensively validated models shows the consistent description of ambient conditions and the variation of the hazmat gas release. Dispersion is compared against measurements observations in obstructed and unobstructed areas for different release and dispersion scenarios. From the performance validation exercise, acceptable agreement was obtained, showing the reasonable numerical representation of measured features. In general, quality metrics are within or close to the acceptance limits recommended for ‘non-CFD models’, demonstrating its capability to reasonably predict hazmat gases accidental release and atmospheric dispersion in industrial and urban areas. EFRHA model was also applied to a particular case study, the Estarreja Chemical Complex (ECC), for a set of accidental release scenarios within a CA scope. The results show the magnitude of potential effects on the surrounding populated area and influence of the type of accident and the environment on the main outputs. Overall the present thesis shows that EFRHA model can be used as a straightforward tool to support CA studies in the scope of training and planning, but also, to support decision and emergency response in case of hazmat gases accidental release in industrial and built-up areas.