Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

Optimisation of viscoelastic treatments using genetic algorithms

Viscoelastic treatments are one of the most efficient treatments, as far as passive damping is concerned, particularly in the case of thin and light structures. In this type of treatment, part of the strain energy generated in the viscoelastic material is dissipated to the surroundings, in the form of heat. A layer of viscoelastic material is applied to a structure in an unconstrained or constrained configuration, the latter proving to be the most efficient arrangement. This is due to the fact that the relative movement of both the host and constraining layers cause the viscoelastic material to be subjected to a relatively high strain energy. There are studies, however, that claim that the partial application of the viscoelastic material is just as efficient, in terms of economic costs or any other form of treatment application costs. The application of patches of material in specific and selected areas of the structure, thus minimising the extension of damping material, results in an equally efficient treatment. Since the damping mechanism of a viscoelastic material is based on the dissipation of part of the strain energy, the efficiency of the partial treatment can be correlated to the modal strain energy of the structure. Even though the results obtained with this approach in various studies are considered very satisfactory, an optimisation procedure is deemed necessary. In order to obtain optimum solutions, however, time consuming numerical simulations are required. The optimisation process to use the minimum amount of viscoelastic material is based on an evolutionary geometry re-design and calculation of the modal damping, making this procedure computationally costly. To avert this disadvantage, this study uses adaptive layerwise finite elements and applies Genetic Algorithms in the optimisation process.

Calculus of variations on time scales and applications to economics

We consider some problems of the calculus of variations on time scales. On the beginning our attention is paid on two inverse extremal problems on arbitrary time scales. Firstly, using the Euler-Lagrange equation and the strengthened Legendre condition, we derive a general form for a variation functional that attains a local minimum at a given point of the vector space. Furthermore, we prove a necessary condition for a dynamic integro-differential equation to be an Euler-Lagrange equation. New and interesting results for the discrete and quantum calculus are obtained as particular cases. Afterwards, we prove Euler-Lagrange type equations and transversality conditions for generalized infinite horizon problems. Next we investigate the composition of a certain scalar function with delta and nabla integrals of a vector valued field. Euler-Lagrange equations in integral form, transversality conditions, and necessary optimality conditions for isoperimetric problems, on an arbitrary time scale, are proved. In the end, two main issues of application of time scales in economic, with interesting results, are presented. In the former case we consider a firm that wants to program its production and investment policies to reach a given production rate and to maximize its future market competitiveness. The model which describes firm activities is studied in two different ways: using classical discretizations; and applying discrete versions of our result on time scales. In the end we compare the cost functional values obtained from those two approaches. The latter problem is more complex and relates to rate of inflation, p, and rate of unemployment, u, which inflict a social loss. Using known relations between p, u, and the expected rate of inflation π, we rewrite the social loss function as a function of π. We present this model in the time scale framework and find an optimal path π that minimizes the total social loss over a given time interval.

Network virtualisation from an operator perspective

Network virtualisation is seen as a promising approach to overcome the so-called “Internet impasse” and bring innovation back into the Internet, by allowing easier migration towards novel networking approaches as well as the coexistence of complementary network architectures on a shared infrastructure in a commercial context. Recently, the interest from the operators and mainstream industry in network virtualisation has grown quite significantly, as the potential benefits of virtualisation became clearer, both from an economical and an operational point of view. In the beginning, the concept has been mainly a research topic and has been materialized in small-scale testbeds and research network environments. This PhD Thesis aims to provide the network operator with a set of mechanisms and algorithms capable of managing and controlling virtual networks. To this end, we propose a framework that aims to allocate, monitor and control virtual resources in a centralized and efficient manner. In order to analyse the performance of the framework, we performed the implementation and evaluation on a small-scale testbed. To enable the operator to make an efficient allocation, in real-time, and on-demand, of virtual networks onto the substrate network, it is proposed a heuristic algorithm to perform the virtual network mapping. For the network operator to obtain the highest profit of the physical network, it is also proposed a mathematical formulation that aims to maximize the number of allocated virtual networks onto the physical network. Since the power consumption of the physical network is very significant in the operating costs, it is important to make the allocation of virtual networks in fewer physical resources and onto physical resources already active. To address this challenge, we propose a mathematical formulation that aims to minimize the energy consumption of the physical network without affecting the efficiency of the allocation of virtual networks. To minimize fragmentation of the physical network while increasing the revenue of the operator, it is extended the initial formulation to contemplate the re-optimization of previously mapped virtual networks, so that the operator has a better use of its physical infrastructure. It is also necessary to address the migration of virtual networks, either for reasons of load balancing or for reasons of imminent failure of physical resources, without affecting the proper functioning of the virtual network. To this end, we propose a method based on cloning techniques to perform the migration of virtual networks across the physical infrastructure, transparently, and without affecting the virtual network. In order to assess the resilience of virtual networks to physical network failures, while obtaining the optimal solution for the migration of virtual networks in case of imminent failure of physical resources, the mathematical formulation is extended to minimize the number of nodes migrated and the relocation of virtual links. In comparison with our optimization proposals, we found out that existing heuristics for mapping virtual networks have a poor performance. We also found that it is possible to minimize the energy consumption without penalizing the efficient allocation. By applying the re-optimization on the virtual networks, it has been shown that it is possible to obtain more free resources as well as having the physical resources better balanced. Finally, it was shown that virtual networks are quite resilient to failures on the physical network.

Efeito do cronótipo e da hora do dia no desempenho numa tarefa de emparelhamento de faces

Os ritmos circadianos têm vindo a despertar interesse há largos anos, sabendo-se que cada indivíduo tem a sua preferência pessoal por estar ativo a diferentes horas do dia. A noção de cronótipo traduz esta preferência, classificando-nos em matutinos, intermédios, ou vespertinos. Encontra-se já definida uma relação entre o cronótipo de um indivíduo e a hora do dia a que realiza determinadas tarefas, fator que influencia o desempenho em muitos processos cognitivos, observando-se o designado efeito de sincronia: o desempenho atinge o seu pico quando a tarefa se realiza na hora ótima, aquela que se coaduna com a hora preferencial da pessoa. Desse modo, sujeitos matutinos têm frequentemente um melhor desempenho em diversas tarefas durante a manhã, e sujeitos vespertinos ao final do dia. O presente estudo pretendeu verificar se este efeito influencia o processo de emparelhamento de faces não familiares, tarefa em que o desempenho é por norma pobre. Nesse sentido, 33 participantes (17 matutinos e 16 vespertinos) avaliaram os 168 pares de faces (84 em cada sessão) que compõem o Glasgow Face Matching Test, e decidiram se as duas pertenciam à mesma pessoa, ou a pessoas diferentes. A tarefa foi realizada em duas sessões, uma às 9h e outra às 19h, para avaliar o efeito de sincronia. Verificou-se um efeito de interação significativo entre o cronótipo e a hora ótima no tempo de reação dos participantes, quando acertavam a sua resposta. Parte dos nossos resultados foram de encontro ao esperado, com os participantes vespertinos a serem mais rápidos na sua hora ótima. É sugerida então a existência de alguma influência do cronótipo e da hora do dia na rapidez de processamento e emparelhamento de faces não familiares.