Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Estatística portuária: impacto da gestão dos portos

As Administrações Portuárias foram evoluindo ao longo do tempo, sendo, atualmente, organismos de capitais exclusivamente públicos. Sendo crescente a competitividade entre os Portos e as exigências em termos de qualidade na prestação de serviços, as Administrações Portuárias têm sentido a necessidade de se moldarem às necessidades dos seus clientes. No presente estudo tentou perceber-se de que modo é que a informação estatística utilizada nos Portos nacionais auxilia na tomada de decisão diária dos administradores. Com vista à concretização do objetivo proposto, foi utilizada uma metodologia qualitativa, tendo a informação sido recolhida através da análise documental e de entrevistas de elite realizadas a administradores portuários. O presente estudo começa por apresentar o percurso dos Portos, expondo a sua evolução e os modelos de gestão utilizados. Posteriormente, são apresentadas as atividades desenvolvidas durante o estágio na Organização de Acolhimento – Administração do Porto de Aveiro, S.A.. De seguida, é realizado o tratamento e análise da informação recolhida através das entrevistas a administradores portuários. Por último, são expostas as considerações finais, de modo a aferir qual a importância da estatística para a gestão portuária, são identificadas as limitações encontradas durante a realização do estudo e feitas propostas de trabalho para o futuro. O estudo mostrou que, apesar de ser apenas uma parte do processo, a estatística é imprescindível para gestão dos Portos, sendo, contudo, primordial que seja desenvolvida para melhorar o processo de tomada de decisão. Algumas das mudanças sugeridas incluem obrigar os concessionários a ceder dados à Autoridade Portuária, definir indicadores globais e dinâmicos a nível nacional que permitam analisar a evolução de cada Porto, fazer benchmarking, e selecionar um conjunto de indicadores internos de performance, para que os administradores possam ter uma visão do passado, do presente e estarem preparados para o que o futuro acarreta. Acredita-se que a análise efetuada no âmbito deste estudo poderá contribuir para que se efetuem pequenas mudanças, no sentido de contribuir para uma melhor utilização da estatística na gestão portuária.

Channel modelling for MIMO systems

Systems equipped with multiple antennas at the transmitter and at the receiver, known as MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) systems, offer higher capacities, allowing an efficient exploitation of the available spectrum and/or the employment of more demanding applications. It is well known that the radio channel is characterized by multipath propagation, a phenomenon deemed problematic and whose mitigation has been achieved through techniques such as diversity, beamforming or adaptive antennas. By exploring conveniently the spatial domain MIMO systems turn the characteristics of the multipath channel into an advantage and allow creating multiple parallel and independent virtual channels. However, the achievable benefits are constrained by the propagation channel’s characteristics, which may not always be ideal. This work focuses on the characterization of the MIMO radio channel. It begins with the presentation of the fundamental results from information theory that triggered the interest on these systems, including the discussion of some of their potential benefits and a review of the existing channel models for MIMO systems. The characterization of the MIMO channel developed in this work is based on experimental measurements of the double-directional channel. The measurement system is based on a vector network analyzer and a two-dimensional positioning platform, both controlled by a computer, allowing the measurement of the channel’s frequency response at the locations of a synthetic array. Data is then processed using the SAGE (Space-Alternating Expectation-Maximization) algorithm to obtain the parameters (delay, direction of arrival and complex amplitude) of the channel’s most relevant multipath components. Afterwards, using a clustering algorithm these data are grouped into clusters. Finally, statistical information is extracted allowing the characterization of the channel’s multipath components. The information about the multipath characteristics of the channel, induced by existing scatterers in the propagation scenario, enables the characterization of MIMO channel and thus to evaluate its performance. The method was finally validated using MIMO measurements.

Medical information extraction in European Portuguese

The electronic storage of medical patient data is becoming a daily experience in most of the practices and hospitals worldwide. However, much of the data available is in free-form text, a convenient way of expressing concepts and events, but especially challenging if one wants to perform automatic searches, summarization or statistical analysis. Information Extraction can relieve some of these problems by offering a semantically informed interpretation and abstraction of the texts. MedInX, the Medical Information eXtraction system presented in this document, is the first information extraction system developed to process textual clinical discharge records written in Portuguese. The main goal of the system is to improve access to the information locked up in unstructured text, and, consequently, the efficiency of the health care process, by allowing faster and reliable access to quality information on health, for both patient and health professionals. MedInX components are based on Natural Language Processing principles, and provide several mechanisms to read, process and utilize external resources, such as terminologies and ontologies, in the process of automatic mapping of free text reports onto a structured representation. However, the flexible and scalable architecture of the system, also allowed its application to the task of Named Entity Recognition on a shared evaluation contest focused on Portuguese general domain free-form texts. The evaluation of the system on a set of authentic hospital discharge letters indicates that the system performs with 95% F-measure, on the task of entity recognition, and 95% precision on the task of relation extraction. Example applications, demonstrating the use of MedInX capabilities in real applications in the hospital setting, are also presented in this document. These applications were designed to answer common clinical problems related with the automatic coding of diagnoses and other health-related conditions described in the documents, according to the international classification systems ICD-9-CM and ICF. The automatic review of the content and completeness of the documents is an example of another developed application, denominated MedInX Clinical Audit system.