Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of historic masonry buildings

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centresshould be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity.

Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

Genotoxic risk of herbicides to Anguilla anguilla L.

No contexto dos contaminantes aquáticos, os herbicidas são considerados como um dos grupos mais perigosos. Uma vez aplicados, estes são facilmente transportados para cursos de água, quer devido a uma pulverização pouco cuidada ou devido a fenómenos de escorrência superficial e/ou subterrânea. A presença destes agroquímicos no ambiente tem vindo a ser associada a efeitos nefastos em organismos não-alvo, como é o caso dos peixes. Contudo, existe ainda uma grande lacuna no que diz respeito à informação científica relacionada com o seu impacto genotóxico. Deste modo, a presente tese foi delineada com o intuito de avaliar o risco genotóxico em peixes de duas formulações de herbicidas: o Roundup®, que tem como princípio activo o glifosato, e o Garlon®, que apresenta o triclopir na base da sua constituição, produtos estes largamente utilizados na limpeza de campos agrícolas, assim como em florestas. Foi ainda planeado desenvolver uma base de conhecimento no que diz respeito aos mecanismos de dano do ADN. Como último objectivo, pretendeu-se contribuir para a mitigação dos efeitos dos agroquímicos no biota aquático, nomeadamente em peixes, fornecendo dados científicos no sentido de melhorar as práticas agrícolas e florestais. Este estudo foi realizado adoptando a enguia europeia (Anguilla anguilla L.) como organismo-teste, e submetendo-a a exposições de curta duração (1 e 3 dias) dos produtos comerciais mencionados, em concentrações consideradas ambientalmente realistas. Para a avaliação da genotoxicidade foram aplicadas duas metodologias: o ensaio do cometa e o teste das anomalias nucleares eritrocíticas (ANE). Enquanto o ensaio do cometa detecta quebras na cadeia do ADN, um dano passível de ser reparado, o aparecimento das ANE revela lesões cromossomais, sinalizando um tipo de dano de difícil reparação. O ensaio do cometa foi ainda melhorado com uma nova etapa que incluiu a incubação com enzimas de reparação (FPG e EndoIII), permitindo perceber a ocorrência de dano oxidativo no ADN. No que diz respeito ao Roundup®, o envolvimento do sistema antioxidante como indicador de um estado próoxidante foi também alvo de estudo. Uma vez que as referidas formulações se apresentam sob a forma de misturas, o potencial genotóxico dos seus princípios activos foi também avaliado individualmente. No caso particular do Roundup®, também foram estudados o seu surfactante (amina polietoxilada; POEA) e o principal metabolito ambiental (ácido aminometilfosfórico; AMPA). Os resultados obtidos mostraram a capacidade do Roundup® em induzir tanto dano no ADN (em células de sangue, guelras e fígado) como dano cromossómico (em células de sangue). A investigação sobre o possível envolvimento do stresse oxidativo demonstrou que o tipo de dano no ADN varia com as concentrações testadas e com a duração da exposição. Deste modo, com o aumento do tempo de exposição, os processos relacionados com o envolvimento de espécies reactivas de oxigénio (ERO) ganharam preponderância como mecanismo de dano no ADN, facto que é corroborado pela activação do sistema antioxidante observado nas guelras, assim como pelo aumento dos sítios sensíveis a FPG em hepatócitos. O glifosato e o POEA foram também considerados genotóxicos. O POEA mostrou induzir uma maior extensão de dano no ADN, tanto comparado com o glifosato como com a mistura comercial. Apesar de ambos os componentes contribuirem para a genotoxicidade da formulação, a soma dos seus efeitos individuais nunca foi observada, apontando para um antagonismo entre eles e indicando que o POEA não aumenta o risco associado ao princípio activo. Deste modo, realça-se a necessidade de regulamentar limiares de segurança para todos os componentes da formulação, recomendando, em particular, a revisão da classificação do risco do POEA (actualmente classificado com “inerte”). Uma vez confirmada a capacidade do principal metabolito do glifosato – AMPA – em exercer dano no ADN assim como dano cromossómico, os produtos da degradação ambiental dos princípios activos assumem-se como um problema silencioso, realçando assim a importância de incluir o AMPA na avaliação do risco relacionado com herbicidas com base no glifosato. A formulação Garlon® e o seu princípio activo triclopir mostraram um claro potencial genotóxico. Adicionalmente, o Garlon® mostrou possuir um potencial genotóxico mais elevado do que o seu princípio activo. No entanto, a capacidade de infligir dano oxidativo no ADN não foi demonstrada para nenhum dos agentes. No que concerne à avaliação da progressão do dano após a remoção da fonte de contaminação, nem os peixes expostos a Roundup® nem os expostos a Garlon® conseguiram restaurar completamente a integridade do seu ADN ao fim de 14 dias. No que concerne ao Roundup®, o uso de enzimas de reparação de lesões específicas do ADN associado ao teste do cometa permitiu detectar um aparecimento tardio de dano oxidativo, indicando deste modo um decaimento progressivo da protecção antioxidante e ainda uma incapacidade de reparar este tipo de dano. O período de pós-exposição correspondente ao Garlon® revelou uma tendência de diminuição dos níveis de dano, apesar de nunca se observar uma completa recuperação. Ainda assim, foi evidente uma intervenção eficiente das enzimas de reparação do ADN, mais concretamente as direccionadas às purinas oxidadas. A avaliação das metodologias adoptadas tornou evidente que o procedimento base do ensaio do cometa, que detecta apenas o dano nãoespecífico no ADN, possui algumas limitações quando comparado com a metodologia que incluiu a incubação com as enzimas de reparação, uma vez que a última mostrou reduzir a possibilidade de ocorrência de resultados falsos negativos. Os dois parâmetros adoptados (ensaio do cometa e teste das ANE) demonstraram possuir aptidões complementares, sendo assim recomendado a sua utilização conjunta com vista a efectuar uma avaliação mais adequada do risco genotóxico. Globalmente, os resultados obtidos forneceram indicações de grande utilidade para as entidades reguladoras, contribuindo ainda para a (re)formulação de medidas de conservação do ambiente aquático. Neste sentido, os dados obtidos apontam para a importância da avaliação de risco dos herbicidas incluir testes de genotoxicidade. A magnitude de risco detectada para ambas as formulações adverte para a necessidade de adopção de medidas restritivas em relação à sua aplicação na proximidade de cursos de água. Como medidas mitigadoras de impactos ambientais, aponta-se o desenvolvimento de formulações que incorporem adjuvantes selecionados com base na sua baixa toxicidade.

Toxicidade de químicos em mistura: o caso da albufeira do Alqueva

In the environment humans and biota are generally exposed to chemical mixtures rather than individual chemicals. Therefore, when assessing the environmental risk of chemicals, it is important to consider chemical mixtures and their possible interactions. The main objective of this work focused on the environmental risk assessment of pesticides found in the water of the Alqueva reservoir and their binary combinations. In this aquatic ecosystem several pesticides were above of the environmental quality standards. But in addition, there were several sampling points of the reservoir where ecotoxicity was observed despite the presence of these contaminants at low concentrations. Here, a component-based approach was used to assess the effects of the pesticide mixtures. The effects of the binary combinations of four herbicides, atrazine (ATR), terbuthylazine (TER), simazine (SIM) and metolachlor (MET), on the growth rate of the microalgae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and the effects of the binary combinations of the s-triazine herbicides ATR and TER and the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) on the swimming behaviour and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity of the zebrafish Danio rerio were assessed using the two reference models of concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA). Moreover, the combined effects of the herbicides (ATR, TER and MET) and the insecticide CPF were also tested on the swimming behaviour and AChE activity of the aquatic midge Chironomus riparius after the cholinesterases characterization. In this risk characterization, the calculated risk quotients for the herbicides ATR, TER, SIM and MET were higher than 1, meaning that these herbicides present a high risk for the Alqueva ecosystem. As expected, the microalgae P. subcapitata was the most sensitive species to the herbicides. However, despite these herbicides pose no or low risk to other aquatic organisms tested in this study, with EC50 values much higher than the concentrations found in this aquatic ecosystem, they are able to increase the toxic effects of CPF when they are tested in binary mixtures. Moreover, the risk quotients of mixtures of these herbicides present simultaneously in three different locations of the reservoir were also higher than 1, so this confirms the fact that these herbicides when present in mixtures, present a greater risk for this ecosystem than the expected considering each single chemical by its own.

Effect assessment of nanoparticles toxicity in the terrestrial compartment

Over 11 million tons of nanomaterials (NMs) have been produced in 2012 and predictions point the increase in production. Despite predictions and extended usage via consumer products and industry, the understanding of the potential impact of these materials on the environment is virtually absent. The main aim of this thesis is to understand how a selected group of nanomaterials (metal based particles) may impact soil invertebrates, with special focus on the mechanisms of response. Since a case-by-case Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of all the emerging contaminants (particularly NMs) is impossible, among others due to time and cost reasons, to gain understanding on the mechanism of action and response is very important to reach a common paradigm. Understanding the modes of action provides predictive characters in cross particle extrapolation. Besides, it also provides insight for the production of new and sustainable materials. Overall, the effects of the selected NMs (Copper and Silver, Titanium and Zirconium oxides) and the respective salt forms, were investigated at the gene expression (using high-throughput tools, microarray and qPCR technology), biochemical (using enzymatic assays for analysis of oxidative stress markers) and organism (survival and reproduction as in OECD test guidelines) levels, this using standard soil species (Enchytraeus albidus, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia fetida). Gene expression analysis provided valuable information on the mechanisms affected by each of the NMs. The gene expression profile highlighted a (nano)material signature and the effect of the duration of exposure. The functional analyses integrated with the biochemical and organism data, revealed a good understanding power. The biochemical parameters (oxidative stress related) were distinct across the materials and also influenced by duration of exposure and concentration. The standardized organismal responses differed the least between the various materials. The overall outcome is that, in this context of NMs effect assessment, gene expression and enzymatic assays introduced a very important knowledge gap, which could not had been achieved by the standard organismal effects alone. A reoccurring issue with some metal based NMs is the possible dissolution and subsequent release of ions that then causes toxicity e.g. Cu-NPs or Ag-NPs release Cu2+ or Ag+. The oxidation state of the particles was investigated, although this was not the focus of the thesis. The study of fate, e.g. dissolution of NPs, is also only in its beginning and the appropriate techniques are currently being developed. The results showed a specific nanoparticle effect. The UV exposure with titanium dioxide nanoparticles increased its effect.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures

Slender masonry structures are distributed all over the world and constitute a relevant part of the architectural and cultural heritage of humanity. Their protection against earthquakes is a topic of great concern among the scientific community. This concern mainly arises from the strong damage or complete loss suffered by this group of structures due to catastrophic events and the need and interest to preserve them. Although the great progress in technology, and in the knowledge of seismology and earthquake engineering, the preservation of these brittle and massive structures still represents a major challenge. Based on the research developed in this work it is proposed a methodology for the seismic risk assessment of slender masonry structures. The proposed methodology was applied for the vulnerability assessment of Nepalese Pagoda temples which follow very simple construction procedure and construction detailing in relation to seismic resistance requirements. The work is divided in three main parts. Firstly, particular structural fragilities and building characteristics of the important UNESCO classified Nepalese Pagoda temples which affect their seismic performance and dynamic properties are discussed. In the second part the simplified method proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures is presented. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work is applied to study Nepalese Pagoda temples, as well as in the efficiency assessment of seismic performance improvement solution compatible with original cultural and technological value.

Organic contaminants in urban soils: major inputs and potential risks

Urban soil quality may be severely affected by hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs), impairing environmental quality and human health. A comprehensive study was conducted in two contrasting Portuguese urban areas (Lisbon and Viseu) in order to assess the levels and potential risks of these contaminants, to identify sources and study their behaviour in soils. The concentrations of HOCs were related to the size of the city, with much higher contamination levels observed in Lisbon urban area. Source apportionment was performed by studying the HOCs profiles, their relationship with potentially toxic elements and general characteristics of soil using multivariate statistical methods. Lisbon seems to be affected by nearby sources (traffic, industry and incineration processes) whereas in Viseu the atmospheric transport may be playing an important role. In a first tier of risk assessment (RA) it was possible to identify polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Lisbon soils as a potential hazard. The levels of PAHs in street dusts were further studied and allowed to clarify that traffic, tire and pavement debris can be an important source of PAHs to urban soils. Street dusts were also identified as being a potential concern regarding human and environmental health, especially if reaching the nearby aquatic bodies. Geostatistical tools were also used and their usefulness in a RA analysis and urban planning was discussed. In order to obtain a more realistic assessment of risks of HOCs to environment and human health it is important to evaluate their available fraction, which is also the most accessible for organisms. Therefore, a review of the processes involved on the availability of PAHs was performed and the outputs produced by the different chemical methods were evaluated. The suitability of chemical methods to predict bioavailability of PAHs in dissimilar naturally contaminated soils has not been demonstrated, being especially difficult for high molecular weight compounds. No clear relationship between chemical and biological availability was found in this work. Yet, in spite of the very high total concentrations found in some Lisbon soils, both the water soluble fraction and the body residues resulting from bioaccumulation assays were generally very low, which may be due to aging phenomena. It was observed that the percentage of soluble fraction of PAHs in soils was found to be different among compounds and mostly regulated by soil properties. Regarding bioaccumulation assays, although no significant relationship was found between soil properties and bioavailability, it was verified that biota-to-soil bioaccumulation factors were sample dependent rather than compound dependent. In conclusion, once the compounds of potential concern are targeted, then performing a chemical screening as a first tier can be a simple and effective approach to start a RA. However, reliable data is still required to improve the existing models for risk characterization.