4 resultados para Present and future effects

em Repositório Institucional da Universidade de Aveiro - Portugal


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An evaluation of the global atmospheric energetics is presented in the framework of the basic decomposition into the zonal mean and eddy components, the zonal wavenumber decomposition, and the three-dimensional normal mode decomposition. An extension to the normal mode energetics formulation is also presented in the study, which enables the explicit evaluation of the conversion rate between available potential energy and kinetic energy along with their generation and dissipation rates, in both the zonal wavenumber and vertical mode domains. In addition, it has been proposed an extended energy cycle diagram describing the flow of energy among the zonal mean and eddy components, and also among the barotropic and baroclinic components. The energetics is first assessed for three reanalysis datasets and five state-ofthe- art climate models simulations representing the present climate conditions. It is performed a comparative analysis between the observationally based energetics and that based on the climate models' simulations. In order to appraise possible changes in the atmospheric energetics of a future climate scenario relative to that of the present climate conditions, the analysis is extended using the datasets simulated by the same five climate models for a future climate scenario experiment, as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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The purpose of this work is to carry out a comprehensive study on the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) circulation my means of numerical modeling, and to postulate what this circulation will be in the future. The adopted approach was the development of a regional ocean model configuration with high resolution, capable of reproducing the largeand small-scale dynamics of the coastal transition zone. Four numerical experiences were carried out according to these objectives: (1) a climatological run, in order to study the system’s seasonal behavior and its mean state; (2) a run forced with real winds and fluxes for period 2001-2011 in order to study the interannual variability of the system; (3) a run forced with mean fields from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the present, in order to validate GCMs as adequate forcing for regional ocean modeling; (4) a similar run (3) for period 2071-2100, in order to assess possible consequences of a future climate scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the WIM. Furthermore, two Lagrangian particle studies were carried out: one in order to trace the origin of the upwelled waters along the WIM; the other in order to portrait the patterns of larval dispersal, accumulation and connectivity. The numerical configuration proved to be adequate in the reproduction of the system’s mean state, seasonal characterization and an interannual variability study. There is prevalence of poleward flow at the slope, which coexists with the upwelling jet during summer, although there is evidence of its shifting offshore, and which is associated with the Mediterranean Water flow at deeper levels, suggesting a barotropic character. From the future climate scenario essay, the following conclusions were drawn: there is general warming and freshening of upper level waters; there is still poleward tendency, and despite the upwellingfavorable winds strengthening in summer the respective coastal band becomes more restricted in width and depth. In what concerns larval connectivity and dispersion along the WIM, diel vertical migration was observed to increase recruitment throughout the domain, and while smooth coastlines are better suppliers, there is higher accumulation where the topography is rougher.

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The Brazilian Cerrado houses a hugely diverse biota and is considered a conservation hotspot. One of the greatest threats to the integrity of this ecosystem is introduced African grasses, which can competitively exclude native grasses and cause changes in the microclimate and other disturbances. The Cerrado is a mosaic vegetation that provides different combinations, both spatially and temporally, of conditions that can become natural stressors to the herbaceous vegetation (water, nutrient and light availability). These mosaics are reflected in differences in relationships among native and invasive species, affecting competition and creating situations (place/season) that are more, or less, susceptible to invasion. The present study aimed to identify the different biological responses of native (Aristida recurvata, Aristida setifolia, Axonopus barbigerus, Echinolaena inflexa, Gymnopogon spicatus, Paspalum gardnerianum, Paspalum stellatum, Schizachyrium microstachyum, Schizachyrium sanguineum) and invasive (Melinis minutiflora and Andropogon gayanus) grasses to variations in natural stressors and to disturbance (fire and clipping), in order to understand changes in ecosystem functioning and competition processes between the grasses, and to understand invasion dynamics in this ecosystem. The presence of invasive species proved to affect the ecosystem functioning by increasing soil feeding activity. These differences were no longer observed in the dry season or when fires were frequent, showing that water availability and fire are more detrimental to soil feeding activity than is the vegetation. Laboratory experiments showed that both drought and flood simulated scenarios damaged both species, although the invasive species performed better under all watering conditions and responded better to fertilization. Underlying mechanisms such as the efficiency of photosynthesis and antioxidant mechanisms helped to explain this behavior. The invasive species grew faster and showed less cellular damage and a healthier photosystem, reflected in higher assimilation rates under stress. These differences between the native and invasive species were reduced with clipping, especially in dry soil with no fertilization, where the native species recovered better in relation to the pre-clipping levels. Flooding was as stressful as drought, but the invasive species can bypass this issue by growing an extensive root system, especially in the better-drained soils. Fire is more detrimental than clipping, with a slower recovery, while post-fire temperatures affect the germination of both invasive and native seeds and may be an important factor influencing the persistence of a diverse biota. This approach will finally contribute to the choice of the appropriate management techniques to preserve the Cerrado’s biodiversity.

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Environmental contamination and climate changes constitute two of the most serious problems affecting soil ecosystems in agricultural fields. Agriculture is nowadays a highly optimized process that strongly relies on the application of multiple pesticides to reduce losses and increase yield production. Although constituting, per se, a serious problem to soil biota, pesticide mixtures can assume an even higher relevance in a context of unfavourable environmental conditions. Surprisingly, frameworks currently established for environmental risk assessments keep not considering environmental stressors, such as temperature, soil moisture or UV radiation, as factors liable to influence the susceptibility of organisms to pesticides, or pesticide mixtures, which is raising increasing apprehension regarding their adequacy to actually estimate the risks posed by these compounds to the environment. Albeit the higher attention received on the last few years, the influence of environmental stressors on the behaviour and toxicity of chemical mixtures remains still poorly understood. Aiming to contribute for this discussion, the main goal of the present thesis was to evaluate the single and joint effects of natural stressors and pesticides to the terrestrial isopod Porcellionides pruinosus. The first approach consisted on evaluating the effects of several abiotic factors (temperature, soil moisture and UV radiation) on the performance of P. pruinosus using several endpoints: survival, feeding parameters, locomotor activity and avoidance behaviour. Results showed that these stressors might indeed affect P. pruinosus at relevant environmental conditions, thus suggesting the relevance of their consideration in ecotoxicological assays. At next, a multiple biomarker approach was used to have a closer insight into the pathways of damage of UV radiation and a broad spectrum of processes showed to be involved (i.e. oxidative stress, neurotoxicity, energy). Furthermore, UV effects showed to vary with the environment medium and growth-stage. A similar biomarker approach was employed to assess the single and joint effects of the pesticides chlorpyrifos and mancozeb to P. pruinosus. Energy-related biomarkers showed to be the most differentiating parameters since age-classes seemed to respond differently to contamination stress and to have different metabolic costs associated. Finally, the influence of temperature and soil moisture on the toxicity of pesticide mixtures was evaluated using survival and feeding parameters as endpoints. Pesticide-induced mortality was found to be oppositely affected by temperature, either in single or mixture treatments. Whereas chlorpyrifos acute toxicity was raised under higher temperatures the toxicity of mancozeb was more prominent at lower temperatures. By the opposite, soil moisture showed no effects on the pesticide-induced mortality of isopods. Contrary to survival, both temperature and soil moisture showed to interact with pesticides to influence isopods’ feeding parameters. Nonetheless, was however the most common pattern. In brief, findings reported on this thesis demonstrated why the negligence of natural stressors, or multiple stressors in general, is not a good solution for risk assessment frameworks.