Complete spin and orbital evolution of close-in bodies using a Maxwell viscoelastic rheology

In this paper, we present a formalism designed to model tidal interaction with a viscoelastic body made of Maxwell material. Our approach remains regular for any spin rate and orientation, and for any orbital configuration including high eccentricities and close encounters. The method is to integrate simultaneously the rotation and the position of the planet as well as its deformation. We provide the equations of motion both in the body frame and in the inertial frame. With this study, we generalize preexisting models to the spatial case and to arbitrary multipole orders using a formalism taken from quantum theory. We also provide the vectorial expression of the secular tidal torque expanded in Fourier series. Applying this model to close-in exoplanets, we observe that if the relaxation time is longer than the revolution period, the phase space of the system is characterized by the presence of several spin-orbit resonances, even in the circular case. As the system evolves, the planet spin can visit different spin-orbit configurations. The obliquity is decreasing along most of these resonances, but we observe a case where the planet tilt is instead growing. These conclusions derived from the secular torque are successfully tested with numerical integrations of the instantaneous equations of motion on HD 80606 b. Our formalism is also well adapted to close-in super-Earths in multiplanet systems which are known to have non-zero mutual inclinations.

Structural Time Series Modeling: an Application to Environmental Variables

A structural time series model is one which is set up in terms of components which have a direct interpretation. In this paper, the discussion focuses on the dynamic modeling procedure based on the state space approach (associated to the Kalman filter), in the context of surface water quality monitoring, in order to analyze and evaluate the temporal evolution of the environmental variables, and thus identify trends or possible changes in water quality (change point detection). The approach is applied to environmental time series: time series of surface water quality variables in a river basin. The statistical modeling procedure is applied to monthly values of physico- chemical variables measured in a network of 8 water monitoring sites over a 15-year period (1999-2014) in the River Ave hydrological basin located in the Northwest region of Portugal.

On the rotation of co-orbital bodies in eccentric orbits

We investigate the resonant rotation of co-orbital bodies in eccentric and planar orbits. We develop a simple analytical model to study the impact of the eccentricity and orbital perturbations on the spin dynamics. This model is relevant in the entire domain of horseshoe and tadpole orbit, for moderate eccentricities. We show that there are three different families of spin-orbit resonances, one depending on the eccentricity, one depending on the orbital libration frequency, and another depending on the pericenter's dynamics. We can estimate the width and the location of the different resonant islands in the phase space, predicting which are the more likely to capture the spin of the rotating body. In some regions of the phase space the resonant islands may overlap, giving rise to chaotic rotation.