Exploring the links between urban stucture and air quality

A poluição atmosférica constitui actualmente um grave problema ambiental cujos efeitos se fazem sentir a diversas escalas, desde os efeitos imediatos e de longo termo na saúde humana e nos materiais, até fenómenos regionais, como a acificação, e fenómenos globais que durante este século poderão alterar as condições de vida no globo. Apesar da redução das emissões de poluentes atmosféricos, conseguida através do uso de combustíveis mais limpos e tecnologias mais eficientes, as áreas urbanas continuam a evidenciar sinais de degradação ambiental. Para ser bem sucedida a cidade deve enfrentar as três dimensões da sustentabilidade: social, económica e ambiental. O modo de utilização do solo numa zona urbana é uma característica fundamental da cidade, com influência directa no seu desempenho ambiental e na qualidade de vida que proporciona à população. O presente trabalho explora a ligação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar, um dos muitos aspectos do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. A perspectiva histórica sobre o desenvolvimento urbano, a poluição atmosférica e a sua interligação é abordada, bem como o trabalho de investigação que tem vindo a ser conduzido na área. A aplicação de um sistema de modelação atmosférico a um caso de estudo idealizado demonstra a importância da estrutura espacial da cidade na sustentabilidade urbana, mostrando que cidades compactas com usos do solo misturados promovem uma melhor qualidade do ar quando comparadas com cidades dispersas, com baixa densidade populacional. De modo a explorar a relação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar numa zona urbana real, a região urbana do Porto é identificada como um caso de estudo adequado, e o processo de crescimento urbano nas últimas décadas é analisado, assim como os níveis de qualidade do ar da região. De modo a definir a configuração do sistema de modelação mais adequada para a região de estudo, são efectuados diversos testes de sensibilidade com o modelo meteorológico. Relativamente ao modelo de qualidade do ar, é descrito e implementado um conjunto de acções de modo a melhorar o desempenho do modelo para a simulação das concentrações de poluentes na atmosfera urbana, no contexto de alterações do uso do solo. Finalmente, são desenvolvidos e testados, através da aplicação do sistema de modelação, dois cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento urbano para a área de estudo. Estes cenários alternativos implicam diferentes emissões de poluentes e diferentes distribuições espaciais dessas emissões, e como consequência, diferentes níveis de qualidade do ar. O estudo permite concluir que alterações nos padrões de uso do solo em áreas urbanas conduzem a alterações na meteorologia, emissões e qualidade do ar. As áreas urbanas dispersas, quando comparadas com estruturas urbanas compactas são responsáveis por temperaturas mais elevadas, emissões de poluentes para a atmosfera mais elevadas e maiores concentrações de poluentes.

Model-based systems engineering: a system for traffic & environment

The contemporary world is crowded of large, interdisciplinary, complex systems made of other systems, personnel, hardware, software, information, processes, and facilities. The Systems Engineering (SE) field proposes an integrated holistic approach to tackle these socio-technical systems that is crucial to take proper account of their multifaceted nature and numerous interrelationships, providing the means to enable their successful realization. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging paradigm in the SE field and can be described as the formalized application of modelling principles, methods, languages, and tools to the entire lifecycle of those systems, enhancing communications and knowledge capture, shared understanding, improved design precision and integrity, better development traceability, and reduced development risks. This thesis is devoted to the application of the novel MBSE paradigm to the Urban Traffic & Environment domain. The proposed system, the GUILTE (Guiding Urban Intelligent Traffic & Environment), deals with a present-day real challenging problem “at the agenda” of world leaders, national governors, local authorities, research agencies, academia, and general public. The main purposes of the system are to provide an integrated development framework for the municipalities, and to support the (short-time and real-time) operations of the urban traffic through Intelligent Transportation Systems, highlighting two fundamental aspects: the evaluation of the related environmental impacts (in particular, the air pollution and the noise), and the dissemination of information to the citizens, endorsing their involvement and participation. These objectives are related with the high-level complex challenge of developing sustainable urban transportation networks. The development process of the GUILTE system is supported by a new methodology, the LITHE (Agile Systems Modelling Engineering), which aims to lightening the complexity and burdensome of the existing methodologies by emphasizing agile principles such as continuous communication, feedback, stakeholders involvement, short iterations and rapid response. These principles are accomplished through a universal and intuitive SE process, the SIMILAR process model (which was redefined at the light of the modern international standards), a lean MBSE method, and a coherent System Model developed through the benchmark graphical modeling languages SysML and OPDs/OPL. The main contributions of the work are, in their essence, models and can be settled as: a revised process model for the SE field, an agile methodology for MBSE development environments, a graphical tool to support the proposed methodology, and a System Model for the GUILTE system. The comprehensive literature reviews provided for the main scientific field of this research (SE/MBSE) and for the application domain (Traffic & Environment) can also be seen as a relevant contribution.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.