Estimação robusta em modelos lineares de equações simultâneas

Os Modelos de Equações Simultâneas (SEM) são modelos estatísticos com muita tradição em estudos de Econometria, uma vez que permitem representar e estudar uma vasta gama de processos económicos. Os estimadores mais usados em SEM resultam da aplicação do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados ou do Método da Máxima Verosimilhança, os quais não são robustos. Em Maronna e Yohai (1997), os autores propõem formas de “robustificar” esses estimadores. Um outro método de estimação com interesse nestes modelos é o Método dos Momentos Generalizado (GMM), o qual também conduz a estimadores não robustos. Estimadores que sofrem de falta de robustez são muito inconvenientes uma vez que podem conduzir a resultados enganadores quando são violadas as hipóteses subjacentes ao modelo assumido. Os estimadores robustos são de grande valor, em particular quando os modelos em estudo são complexos, como é o caso dos SEM. O principal objectivo desta investigação foi o de procurar tais estimadores tendo-se construído um estimador robusto a que se deu o nome de GMMOGK. Trata-se de uma versão robusta do estimador GMM. Para avaliar o desempenho do novo estimador foi feito um adequado estudo de simulação e foi também feita a aplicação do estimador a um conjunto de dados reais. O estimador robusto tem um bom desempenho nos modelos heterocedásticos considerados e, nessas condições, comporta-se melhor do que os estimadores não robustos usados no estudo. Contudo, quando a análise é feita em cada equação separadamente, a especificidade de cada equação individual e a estrutura de dependência do sistema são dois aspectos que influenciam o desempenho do estimador, tal como acontece com os estimadores usuais. Para enquadrar a investigação, o texto inclui uma revisão de aspectos essenciais dos SEM, o seu papel em Econometria, os principais métodos de estimação, com particular ênfase no GMM, e uma curta introdução à estimação robusta.

Interacção entre estruturas intervalares e estruturas espectrais, na música instrumental/vocal

A presente tese apresenta-se num formato bipartido, sendo a primeira parte uma investigação teórica e a segunda parte um conjunto de composições originais que procuram estabelecer, directa e indirectamente, uma relação com a temática investigada. A investigação incide sobre as diferentes relações que se podem estabelecer entre estruturas intervalares e estruturas espectrais, a partir de um conjunto representativo de obras de diferentes compositores. As obras originais da segunda parte configuram um objecto final de análise e reflexão. As composições que integram a segunda parte da tese são: Inês – sete miniaturas sobre A Castro, para soprano e orquestra, sobre excertos de “Castro”, de António Ferreira; Um sino contra o tempo, para flauta, clarinete, percussão e piano; Terra, para orquestra de cordas; Dor e Amor, para voz, flauta, clarinete, percussão, harpa, piano, violino, viola e violoncelo, sobre poemas de Nuno Júdice; e Ode a Gaia, para soprano solo, coro misto e electrónica, a partir de textos de diversos autores e épocas, desde Homero a Fernando Pessoa. Esta investigação surge a partir da convicção de que é possível e enriquecedor para a composição a coexistência e o estabelecimento de uma relação entre estruturas que valorizam as qualidades dos intervalos que as constituem e estruturas de tipo espectral. Se o pensamento intervalar pode ser relacionado com princípios de estruturação ligados a toda uma tradição musical, desde a música modal, à tonal e à atonal, o pensamento espectral relaciona-se com o estudo do fenómeno sonoro e do timbre e é integrado mais tardiamente no séc. XX como um possível modelo estruturante na composição. A investigação sobre as obras seleccionadas, sobretudo de compositores que colocam o fenómeno da percepção num plano central, procura diferentes interacções entre os dois tipos de estrutura, interrogando-se sobre em que medida é que essa interacção influencia ou é mesmo determinante para o resultado musical final. São analisadas diferentes aplicações, tais como: a procura de qualidades acústicas na criação de estruturas intervalares, a criação de timbres particulares para linhas estruturantes, a manipulação tímbrica de estruturas verticais, a inter-relação de camadas intervalares e espectrais na textura musical de forma sincrónica e diacrónica, e o surgimento de material intervalar a partir de estruturas espectrais. Os principais resultados passam pela confirmação de que o pensamento intervalar é compatível com o pensamento espectral e vice-versa, podendo-se concluir que são essenciais diferentes funções para os dois tipos de estrutura na textura musical e que quer as estruturas intervalares quer as espectrais se relacionam com diferentes aspectos da percepção, tendo, assim, uma influência determinante no resultado musical final, na eficácia da escuta e na sua fruição.

Implicit optimality criterion for convex SIP problem with box constrained index set

We consider a convex problem of Semi-Infinite Programming (SIP) with multidimensional index set. In study of this problem we apply the approach suggested in [20] for convex SIP problems with one-dimensional index sets and based on the notions of immobile indices and their immobility orders. For the problem under consideration we formulate optimality conditions that are explicit and have the form of criterion. We compare this criterion with other known optimality conditions for SIP and show its efficiency in the convex case.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

On the application of optimal control techniques in lossy fieldbuses

The performance of real-time networks is under continuous improvement as a result of several trends in the digital world. However, these tendencies not only cause improvements, but also exacerbates a series of unideal aspects of real-time networks such as communication latency, jitter of the latency and packet drop rate. This Thesis focuses on the communication errors that appear on such realtime networks, from the point-of-view of automatic control. Specifically, it investigates the effects of packet drops in automatic control over fieldbuses, as well as the architectures and optimal techniques for their compensation. Firstly, a new approach to address the problems that rise in virtue of such packet drops, is proposed. This novel approach is based on the simultaneous transmission of several values in a single message. Such messages can be from sensor to controller, in which case they are comprised of several past sensor readings, or from controller to actuator in which case they are comprised of estimates of several future control values. A series of tests reveal the advantages of this approach. The above-explained approach is then expanded as to accommodate the techniques of contemporary optimal control. However, unlike the aforementioned approach, that deliberately does not send certain messages in order to make a more efficient use of network resources; in the second case, the techniques are used to reduce the effects of packet losses. After these two approaches that are based on data aggregation, it is also studied the optimal control in packet dropping fieldbuses, using generalized actuator output functions. This study ends with the development of a new optimal controller, as well as the function, among the generalized functions that dictate the actuator’s behaviour in the absence of a new control message, that leads to the optimal performance. The Thesis also presents a different line of research, related with the output oscillations that take place as a consequence of the use of classic co-design techniques of networked control. The proposed algorithm has the goal of allowing the execution of such classical co-design algorithms without causing an output oscillation that increases the value of the cost function. Such increases may, under certain circumstances, negate the advantages of the application of the classical co-design techniques. A yet another line of research, investigated algorithms, more efficient than contemporary ones, to generate task execution sequences that guarantee that at least a given number of activated jobs will be executed out of every set composed by a predetermined number of contiguous activations. This algorithm may, in the future, be applied to the generation of message transmission patterns in the above-mentioned techniques for the efficient use of network resources. The proposed task generation algorithm is better than its predecessors in the sense that it is capable of scheduling systems that cannot be scheduled by its predecessor algorithms. The Thesis also presents a mechanism that allows to perform multi-path routing in wireless sensor networks, while ensuring that no value will be counted in duplicate. Thereby, this technique improves the performance of wireless sensor networks, rendering them more suitable for control applications. As mentioned before, this Thesis is centered around techniques for the improvement of performance of distributed control systems in which several elements are connected through a fieldbus that may be subject to packet drops. The first three approaches are directly related to this topic, with the first two approaching the problem from an architectural standpoint, whereas the third one does so from more theoretical grounds. The fourth approach ensures that the approaches to this and similar problems that can be found in the literature that try to achieve goals similar to objectives of this Thesis, can do so without causing other problems that may invalidate the solutions in question. Then, the thesis presents an approach to the problem dealt with in it, which is centered in the efficient generation of the transmission patterns that are used in the aforementioned approaches.

Calculus of variations on time scales and applications to economics

We consider some problems of the calculus of variations on time scales. On the beginning our attention is paid on two inverse extremal problems on arbitrary time scales. Firstly, using the Euler-Lagrange equation and the strengthened Legendre condition, we derive a general form for a variation functional that attains a local minimum at a given point of the vector space. Furthermore, we prove a necessary condition for a dynamic integro-differential equation to be an Euler-Lagrange equation. New and interesting results for the discrete and quantum calculus are obtained as particular cases. Afterwards, we prove Euler-Lagrange type equations and transversality conditions for generalized infinite horizon problems. Next we investigate the composition of a certain scalar function with delta and nabla integrals of a vector valued field. Euler-Lagrange equations in integral form, transversality conditions, and necessary optimality conditions for isoperimetric problems, on an arbitrary time scale, are proved. In the end, two main issues of application of time scales in economic, with interesting results, are presented. In the former case we consider a firm that wants to program its production and investment policies to reach a given production rate and to maximize its future market competitiveness. The model which describes firm activities is studied in two different ways: using classical discretizations; and applying discrete versions of our result on time scales. In the end we compare the cost functional values obtained from those two approaches. The latter problem is more complex and relates to rate of inflation, p, and rate of unemployment, u, which inflict a social loss. Using known relations between p, u, and the expected rate of inflation π, we rewrite the social loss function as a function of π. We present this model in the time scale framework and find an optimal path π that minimizes the total social loss over a given time interval.

A recursive construction of the regular exceptional graphs with least eigenvalue -2

In spectral graph theory a graph with least eigenvalue 2 is exceptional if it is connected, has least eigenvalue greater than or equal to 2, and it is not a generalized line graph. A ðk; tÞ-regular set S of a graph is a vertex subset, inducing a k-regular subgraph such that every vertex not in S has t neighbors in S. We present a recursive construction of all regular exceptional graphs as successive extensions by regular sets.

Numerical and combinatorial applications of generalized Appell polynomials

This thesis studies properties and applications of different generalized Appell polynomials in the framework of Clifford analysis. As an example of 3D-quasi-conformal mappings realized by generalized Appell polynomials, an analogue of the complex Joukowski transformation of order two is introduced. The consideration of a Pascal n-simplex with hypercomplex entries allows stressing the combinatorial relevance of hypercomplex Appell polynomials. The concept of totally regular variables and its relation to generalized Appell polynomials leads to the construction of new bases for the space of homogeneous holomorphic polynomials whose elements are all isomorphic to the integer powers of the complex variable. For this reason, such polynomials are called pseudo-complex powers (PCP). Different variants of them are subject of a detailed investigation. Special attention is paid to the numerical aspects of PCP. An efficient algorithm based on complex arithmetic is proposed for their implementation. In this context a brief survey on numerical methods for inverting Vandermonde matrices is presented and a modified algorithm is proposed which illustrates advantages of a special type of PCP. Finally, combinatorial applications of generalized Appell polynomials are emphasized. The explicit expression of the coefficients of a particular type of Appell polynomials and their relation to a Pascal simplex with hypercomplex entries are derived. The comparison of two types of 3D Appell polynomials leads to the detection of new trigonometric summation formulas and combinatorial identities of Riordan-Sofo type characterized by their expression in terms of central binomial coefficients.