Effects of the climatic factors and anthropogenic actions in the Ria de Aveiro

A compreensão dos impactes das alterações climáticas é fundamental para a gestão a longo do prazo dos ecossistemas estuarinos. Esta compreensão só poderá ser efectiva considerando a variabilidade climática natural e o papel relativo das intervenções antropogénicas nestes ecossistemas. Assim, a presente dissertação analisa a influência das alterações climáticas e pressões antropogénicas na qualidade da água e dinâmica ecológica da Ria de Aveiro com base numa abordagem integrada, que combinou a análise de séries temporais dos últimos 25 anos e a modelação numérica de elevada resolução de cenários futuros de alterações climáticas e intervenções antropogénicas. A componente de modelação de qualidade da água e ecológica foi melhorada a vários níveis. A análise de sensibilidade do modelo 3D hidrodinâmicoecológico ECO-SELFE aplicado à Ria de Aveiro e a revisão das constantes de semi-saturação para absorção de nutrientes pelo fitoplâncton contribuíram para a precisão e robustez das aplicações. A concentração do fitoplâncton foi significativamente influenciada pelas taxas de crescimento do fitoplâncton e de mortalidade e excreção do zooplâncton, e apresentou uma sensibilidade reduzida à variação das constantes de semi-saturação na gama identificada para as diatomáceas. O acoplamento do ECO-SELFE a um modelo de campo próximo e a integração do ciclo do oxigénio aumentaram a sua capacidade de representação dos processos e das escalas espaciais relevantes. A validação do ECO-SELFE foi realizada com base num conjunto de campanhas específicas realizadas no canal de Mira. Os padrões espaciais e temporais observados para as várias variáveis (clorofila a, nutrientes, oxigénio dissolvido, salinidade, temperatura da água, correntes e níveis) foram simulados com erros menores ou semelhantes aos obtidos neste tipo de aplicações. A análise dos padrões de variabilidade espacial e temporal da qualidade da água e ecológica na Ria de Aveiro a diferentes escalas, efectuada com base nos dados históricos de 1985 a 2010 complementados pelas campanhas realizadas, sugeriu uma influência combinada da variabilidade climática e das acções antropogénicas. Os cenários futuros de alterações climáticas e intervenções antropogénicas simulados evidenciaram uma influência mais significativa das alterações climáticas quando comparadas com os efeitos das acções antropogénicas analisadas. As variações mais significativas são previstas para os cenários de subida do nível do mar, seguidos dos cenários de alterações dos regimes hidrológicos, evidenciando o papel da circulação (maré e caudal fluvial) no estabelecimento da qualidade da água e dinâmica ecológica na laguna. Para os cenários de subida do nível do mar são previstos decréscimos significativos da clorofila a e dos nutrientes a jusante e nas zonas intermédias do canal, e um aumento significativo da salinidade a montante. Estas alterações poderão favorecer modificações da composição e distribuição das comunidades, afectando a cadeia alimentar e causando uma progressão para montante de espécies marinhas. Os resultados sugerem ainda que os efeitos poderão ser mais significativos em estuários pouco profundos.

Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal)

Ria deAveiro is a very complex shallow water coastal lagoon located on the northwest of Portugal. Important issues would be left unanswered without a good understanding of hydrodynamic and transport processes occurring in the lagoon. Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon are presented. The calibration of the hydrodynamic model was performed adjusting the bottom friction coefficient, through the comparison between measured and predicted time series of sea surface elevation for 22 stations. Harmonic analysis was performed in order to evaluate the model's accuracy. To validate the hydrodynamic model measured and predicted SSE values were compared for 11 stations, as well as main flow direction velocities for 10 stations. The salt and heat transport models were calibrated comparing measured and predicted time series of salinity and water temperature for 7 stations, and the RMS of the difference between the series was determined. These models were validated comparing the model results with an independent field data set. The hydrodynamic and the salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro were successfully calibrated and validated. They reproduce accurately the barotropic flows and can therefore adequately represent the salt and heat transport and the heat transfer processes occurring in Ria deAveiro.

Numerical Modelling of Hydrodynamic Changes Induced by a Jetty Extension: the Case of Ria de Aveiro (Portugal)

Tidally induced currents in estuarine flows are usually modulated by the tidal regime and respond differently to changes imposed to its natural propagation due to geomorphologic alterations. Some of these changes are due to the implementation of heavy engineering works, most of the times imposed by navigation needs associated with harbours growth. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrodynamic response of Ria de Aveiro to an alteration on the present geometry of its inlet, which was artificially delimited in 1808 through the construction of two jetties. In order to provide access to deeper draft vessels to the Aveiro harbour, its Administration intends to create better conditions for navigation through the extension by 200 m of the north jetty. A bidimensional hydrodynamic model SIMSYS2D was used in this study to simulate two distinct situations: the actual Ria de Aveiro configuration (2009), which is used as reference, and other including the future inlet configuration with the jetty extension. Several simulations were performed, using both bathymetries and considering extreme tidal conditions as forcing on the model oceanic open boundary. The tidal prism at the lagoon mouth and at the main lagoon channels was determined. Values of sea surface elevation and horizontal current velocity were comparatively analyzed as well as harmonic analysis results. The results for the projected inlet increase comparatively to those for the present configuration, although the differences found are not significant for most of the cases analyzed. More studies should be performed in order to clarify the long term impact of these works on the lagoon hydrodynamics.

Modeling the Western Iberian margin circulation: present and future

The purpose of this work is to carry out a comprehensive study on the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) circulation my means of numerical modeling, and to postulate what this circulation will be in the future. The adopted approach was the development of a regional ocean model configuration with high resolution, capable of reproducing the largeand small-scale dynamics of the coastal transition zone. Four numerical experiences were carried out according to these objectives: (1) a climatological run, in order to study the system’s seasonal behavior and its mean state; (2) a run forced with real winds and fluxes for period 2001-2011 in order to study the interannual variability of the system; (3) a run forced with mean fields from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the present, in order to validate GCMs as adequate forcing for regional ocean modeling; (4) a similar run (3) for period 2071-2100, in order to assess possible consequences of a future climate scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the WIM. Furthermore, two Lagrangian particle studies were carried out: one in order to trace the origin of the upwelled waters along the WIM; the other in order to portrait the patterns of larval dispersal, accumulation and connectivity. The numerical configuration proved to be adequate in the reproduction of the system’s mean state, seasonal characterization and an interannual variability study. There is prevalence of poleward flow at the slope, which coexists with the upwelling jet during summer, although there is evidence of its shifting offshore, and which is associated with the Mediterranean Water flow at deeper levels, suggesting a barotropic character. From the future climate scenario essay, the following conclusions were drawn: there is general warming and freshening of upper level waters; there is still poleward tendency, and despite the upwellingfavorable winds strengthening in summer the respective coastal band becomes more restricted in width and depth. In what concerns larval connectivity and dispersion along the WIM, diel vertical migration was observed to increase recruitment throughout the domain, and while smooth coastlines are better suppliers, there is higher accumulation where the topography is rougher.