Pro-internationalisation policies and outward foreign direct investment

This thesis addresses the impacts of public policies on outward foreign direct investment, seeking to contribute to a better understanding of the interplay between pro-internationalisation policies and firm behaviour. Home country measures associated with these policies are explored in terms of use and awareness, as determinants of foreign direct investment, as drivers of policy objectives, in terms of perceived importance and impact in different scenarios of internationalisation. Using a comprehensive database of 441 Portuguese firms, being those that had participated at least in one of the 11 types of public support between 1994 and 2009. The empirical papers presented here reveal a moderating effect of firm capabilities and internationalisation conditions on policy objectives. In fact, firms’ resources and capabilities frame the awareness and use of home country support measures, the existence of public policy determinants of foreign direct investment, the decision to carry out more aggressive modes of entry and the choice of more demanding environments, the impact of policy objectives, and the perceived importance of incentives. In practical terms, the findings of this thesis points that firms’ resources and capabilities are negatively associated with the use of public support, contrasting with awareness, which is found to increase with firms’ resources and capabilities. This insight sheds light on a potential problem of incentives allocation. Our results support the established theorizing about the co-evolution of government and firms' policies, home country measures being found as determinants of foreign direct investment. It is also shown that prointernationalization policies reinforce the firms’ resources and capabilities, which seems to have a positive impact on international growth. An evaluation of public policy, from the foreign direct investor's lens, supports the argument that firms involved in more demanding projects tend to attribute more importance to public supports. Behind the specific and concrete contributions identified in each of the empirical papers, as a whole this thesis makes methodological contributions by introducing the evaluation of impacts of public policies to the field of international business through the firm perspective; these contributions are achieved by taking the pro-internationalisation policies of a small open economy to better understand the impacts of public policies, and by shedding light on co-evolution between resource and institutional-based views.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.