Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Governance structures and performance management systems in universities: a comparative study between the UK and Portugal

À semelhança do que aconteceu em muitas instituições públicas, as universidades têm enfrentado pressões crescentes para mudar, tendo de repensar as suas formas de governança e de gestão, dando mais ênfase à implementação de sistemas de gestão do desempenho (SGD). Apesar de existirem vários estudos sobre o desempenho, estes têm ignorado o uso dado à informação recolhida. Além disso, e apesar de terem ocorrido várias reformas na governança destas instituições, existem ainda poucos estudos que relacionam a governança e o desempenho. Assim, esta pesquisa visa explorar a forma como as universidades medem, reportam e gerem o desempenho e como as estruturas de governança se relacionam com estas práticas. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, um estudo comparativo entre universidades britânicas e portuguesas foi realizado. Os dados foram recolhidos através da utilização de uma metodologia qualitativa, sendo os métodos utilizados a análise documental e entrevistas semi-estruturadas a membros dos órgãos de governo e gestão de cada instituição. A análise dos dados mostrou a inexistência de um sistema completamente integrado de gestão de desempenho (SGD) em ambas as instituições, essencialmente devido à falta de práticas de gestão de desempenho. De facto, apesar de alguns dos entrevistados terem reportado o "uso positivo" de dados sobre o desempenho, alguns relataram o "não uso" desses dados, principalmente em relação ao desempenho individual, e outros o "mau uso" dessa informação, tendo sido reportadas práticas de gaming e deturpação dos resultados. Como forma de ultrapassar alguns destes problemas, verificou-se a co-existência de duas estruturas de governança: uma 'formal', da qual fazem parte todos os órgão de governo, com um valor mais 'simbólico'; e uma estrutura 'paralela', constituída por órgãos mais ágeis, que gerem a universidade no dia a dia. Verificou-se terem sido vários os fatores a afetarem, negativa e positivamente, os SGD em ambas as instituições, tendo sido rotulados de "inibidores" e "determinantes", respetivamente. A pesquisa mostrou que, apesar de as estruturas de governança serem importantes para a implementação e funcionamento de um SGD, há outros fatores que precisam de ser levados em consideração, nomeadamente, o nível de comunicação e o nível de envolvimento dos atores no processo. Estes dois fatores são considerados relevantes para a integração bem sucedida de práticas de medição, reporte e gestão de desempenho. Esta integração, juntamente com outras mudanças que ocorreram em termos de governança, contribuirá certamente para que se passe de um sistema em que se governa o desempenho para um sistema em que se governa para o desempenho.

Communication between nodes for autonomic and distributed management

Over the last decade, the most widespread approaches for traditional management were based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) or Common Management Information Protocol (CMIP). However, they both have several problems in terms of scalability, due to their centralization characteristics. Although the distributed management approaches exhibit better performance in terms of scalability, they still underperform regarding communication costs, autonomy, extensibility, exibility, robustness, and cooperation between network nodes. The cooperation between network nodes normally requires excessive overheads for synchronization and dissemination of management information in the network. For emerging dynamic and large-scale networking environments, as envisioned in Next Generation Networks (NGNs), exponential growth in the number of network devices and mobile communications and application demands is expected. Thus, a high degree of management automation is an important requirement, along with new mechanisms that promote it optimally and e ciently, taking into account the need for high cooperation between the nodes. Current approaches for self and autonomic management allow the network administrator to manage large areas, performing fast reaction and e ciently facing unexpected problems. The management functionalities should be delegated to a self-organized plane operating within the network, that decrease the network complexity and the control information ow, as opposed to centralized or external servers. This Thesis aims to propose and develop a communication framework for distributed network management which integrates a set of mechanisms for initial communication, exchange of management information, network (re) organization and data dissemination, attempting to meet the autonomic and distributed management requirements posed by NGNs. The mechanisms are lightweight and portable, and they can operate in di erent hardware architectures and include all the requirements to maintain the basis for an e cient communication between nodes in order to ensure autonomic network management. Moreover, those mechanisms were explored in diverse network conditions and events, such as device and link errors, di erent tra c/network loads and requirements. The results obtained through simulation and real experimentation show that the proposed mechanisms provide a lower convergence time, smaller overhead impact in the network, faster dissemination of management information, increase stability and quality of the nodes associations, and enable the support for e cient data information delivery in comparison to the base mechanisms analyzed. Finally, all mechanisms for communication between nodes proposed in this Thesis, that support and distribute the management information and network control functionalities, were devised and developed to operate in completely decentralized scenarios.