Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Wireless networks congestion control

Congestion control in wireless networks is an important and open issue. Previous research has proven the poor performance of the Transport Control Protocol (TCP) in such networks. The factors that contribute to the poor performance of TCP in wireless environments concern its unsuitability to identify/detect and react properly to network events, its TCP window based ow control algorithm that is not suitable for the wireless channel, and the congestion collapse due to mobility. New rate based mechanisms have been proposed to mitigate TCP performance in wired and wireless networks. However, these mechanisms also present poor performance, as they lack of suitable bandwidth estimation techniques for multi-hop wireless networks. It is thus important to improve congestion control performance in wireless networks, incorporating components that are suitable for wireless environments. A congestion control scheme which provides an e - cient and fair sharing of the underlying network capacity and available bandwidth among multiple competing applications is crucial to the definition of new e cient and fair congestion control schemes on wireless multi-hop networks. The Thesis is divided in three parts. First, we present a performance evaluation study of several congestion control protocols against TCP, in wireless mesh and ad-hoc networks. The obtained results show that rate based congestion control protocols need an eficient and accurate underlying available bandwidth estimation technique. The second part of the Thesis presents a new link capacity and available bandwidth estimation mechanism denoted as rt-Winf (real time wireless inference). The estimation is performed in real-time and without the need to intrusively inject packets in the network. Simulation results show that rt-Winf obtains the available bandwidth and capacity estimation with accuracy and without introducing overhead trafic in the network. The third part of the Thesis proposes the development of new congestion control mechanisms to address the congestion control problems of wireless networks. These congestion control mechanisms use cross layer information, obtained by rt-Winf, to accurately and eficiently estimate the available bandwidth and the path capacity over a wireless network path. Evaluation of these new proposed mechanisms, through ns-2 simulations, shows that the cooperation between rt-Winf and the congestion control algorithms is able to significantly increase congestion control eficiency and network performance.

Influência do risco de incumprimento nos retornos de capital

Sempre foi do interesse das instituições financeiras de crédito determinar o risco de incumprimento associado a uma empresa por forma a avaliar o seu perfil. No entanto, esta informação é útil a todos os stakeholders de uma empresa, já que também estes comprometem uma parte de si ao interagirem com esta. O aumento do número de insolvências nos últimos anos tem reafirmado a necessidade de ampliar e aprofundar a pesquisa sobre o stress financeiro. A identificação dos fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço dos ativos sempre foi do interesse de todos os stakeholders, por forma a antecipar a variação dos retornos e agir em sua conformidade. Nesta dissertação será estudada a influência do risco de incumprimento sobre os retornos de capital, usando como indicador do risco de incumprimento a probabilidade de incumprimento obtida segundo o modelo de opções de Merton (1974). Efetuou-se esta análise durante o período de Fevereiro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2011, utilizando dados de empresas Portuguesas, Espanholas e Gregas. Os resultados evidenciam uma relação negativa do risco de incumprimento com os retornos de capital, que é devida a um efeito momentum e à volatilidade. A par disso, também se demonstra que o tamanho e o book-to-market não são representativos do risco de incumprimento na amostra aqui utilizada, ao contrário do que Fama & French (1992; 1996) afirmavam.

Optimization models for a short sea fuel oil distribution problem

O transporte marítimo e o principal meio de transporte de mercadorias em todo o mundo. Combustíveis e produtos petrolíferos representam grande parte das mercadorias transportadas por via marítima. Sendo Cabo Verde um arquipelago o transporte por mar desempenha um papel de grande relevância na economia do país. Consideramos o problema da distribuicao de combustíveis em Cabo Verde, onde uma companhia e responsavel por coordenar a distribuicao de produtos petrolíferos com a gestão dos respetivos níveis armazenados em cada porto, de modo a satisfazer a procura dos varios produtos. O objetivo consiste em determinar políticas de distribuicão de combustíveis que minimizam o custo total de distribuiçao (transporte e operacões) enquanto os n íveis de armazenamento sao mantidos nos n íveis desejados. Por conveniencia, de acordo com o planeamento temporal, o prob¬lema e divido em dois sub-problemas interligados. Um de curto prazo e outro de medio prazo. Para o problema de curto prazo sao discutidos modelos matemáticos de programacao inteira mista, que consideram simultaneamente uma medicao temporal cont ínua e uma discreta de modo a modelar multiplas janelas temporais e taxas de consumo que variam diariamente. Os modelos sao fortalecidos com a inclusão de desigualdades validas. O problema e então resolvido usando um "software" comercial. Para o problema de medio prazo sao inicialmente discutidos e comparados varios modelos de programacao inteira mista para um horizonte temporal curto assumindo agora uma taxa de consumo constante, e sao introduzidas novas desigualdades validas. Com base no modelo escolhido sao compara¬das estrategias heurísticas que combinam três heur ísticas bem conhecidas: "Rolling Horizon", "Feasibility Pump" e "Local Branching", de modo a gerar boas soluçoes admissíveis para planeamentos com horizontes temporais de varios meses. Finalmente, de modo a lidar com situaçoes imprevistas, mas impor¬tantes no transporte marítimo, como as mas condicões meteorológicas e congestionamento dos portos, apresentamos um modelo estocastico para um problema de curto prazo, onde os tempos de viagens e os tempos de espera nos portos sao aleatórios. O problema e formulado como um modelo em duas etapas, onde na primeira etapa sao tomadas as decisões relativas as rotas do navio e quantidades a carregar e descarregar e na segunda etapa (designada por sub-problema) sao consideradas as decisoes (com recurso) relativas ao escalonamento das operacões. O problema e resolvido por um metodo de decomposto que usa um algoritmo eficiente para separar as desigualdades violadas no sub-problema.

Control design for multicast-aware class-based networks

The expectations of citizens from the Information Technologies (ITs) are increasing as the ITs have become integral part of our society, serving all kinds of activities whether professional, leisure, safety-critical applications or business. Hence, the limitations of the traditional network designs to provide innovative and enhanced services and applications motivated a consensus to integrate all services over packet switching infrastructures, using the Internet Protocol, so as to leverage flexible control and economical benefits in the Next Generation Networks (NGNs). However, the Internet is not capable of treating services differently while each service has its own requirements (e.g., Quality of Service - QoS). Therefore, the need for more evolved forms of communications has driven to radical changes of architectural and layering designs which demand appropriate solutions for service admission and network resources control. This Thesis addresses QoS and network control issues, aiming to improve overall control performance in current and future networks which classify services into classes. The Thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, we propose two resource over-reservation algorithms, a Class-based bandwidth Over-Reservation (COR) and an Enhanced COR (ECOR). The over-reservation means reserving more bandwidth than a Class of Service (CoS) needs, so the QoS reservation signalling rate is reduced. COR and ECOR allow for dynamically defining over-reservation parameters for CoSs based on network interfaces resource conditions; they aim to reduce QoS signalling and related overhead without incurring CoS starvation or waste of bandwidth. ECOR differs from COR by allowing for optimizing control overhead minimization. Further, we propose a centralized control mechanism called Advanced Centralization Architecture (ACA), that uses a single state-full Control Decision Point (CDP) which maintains a good view of its underlying network topology and the related links resource statistics on real-time basis to control the overall network. It is very important to mention that, in this Thesis, we use multicast trees as the basis for session transport, not only for group communication purposes, but mainly to pin packets of a session mapped to a tree to follow the desired tree. Our simulation results prove a drastic reduction of QoS control signalling and the related overhead without QoS violation or waste of resources. Besides, we provide a generic-purpose analytical model to assess the impact of various parameters (e.g., link capacity, session dynamics, etc.) that generally challenge resource overprovisioning control. In the second part of this Thesis, we propose a decentralization control mechanism called Advanced Class-based resource OverpRovisioning (ACOR), that aims to achieve better scalability than the ACA approach. ACOR enables multiple CDPs, distributed at network edge, to cooperate and exchange appropriate control data (e.g., trees and bandwidth usage information) such that each CDP is able to maintain a good knowledge of the network topology and the related links resource statistics on real-time basis. From scalability perspective, ACOR cooperation is selective, meaning that control information is exchanged dynamically among only the CDPs which are concerned (correlated). Moreover, the synchronization is carried out through our proposed concept of Virtual Over-Provisioned Resource (VOPR), which is a share of over-reservations of each interface to each tree that uses the interface. Thus, each CDP can process several session requests over a tree without requiring synchronization between the correlated CDPs as long as the VOPR of the tree is not exhausted. Analytical and simulation results demonstrate that aggregate over-reservation control in decentralized scenarios keep low signalling without QoS violations or waste of resources. We also introduced a control signalling protocol called ACOR Protocol (ACOR-P) to support the centralization and decentralization designs in this Thesis. Further, we propose an Extended ACOR (E-ACOR) which aggregates the VOPR of all trees that originate at the same CDP, and more session requests can be processed without synchronization when compared with ACOR. In addition, E-ACOR introduces a mechanism to efficiently track network congestion information to prevent unnecessary synchronization during congestion time when VOPRs would exhaust upon every session request. The performance evaluation through analytical and simulation results proves the superiority of E-ACOR in minimizing overall control signalling overhead while keeping all advantages of ACOR, that is, without incurring QoS violations or waste of resources. The last part of this Thesis includes the Survivable ACOR (SACOR) proposal to support stable operations of the QoS and network control mechanisms in case of failures and recoveries (e.g., of links and nodes). The performance results show flexible survivability characterized by fast convergence time and differentiation of traffic re-routing under efficient resource utilization i.e. without wasting bandwidth. In summary, the QoS and architectural control mechanisms proposed in this Thesis provide efficient and scalable support for network control key sub-systems (e.g., QoS and resource control, traffic engineering, multicasting, etc.), and thus allow for optimizing network overall control performance.