Contributions to the theory of maximum entropy estimation for ill-posed models

As técnicas estatísticas são fundamentais em ciência e a análise de regressão linear é, quiçá, uma das metodologias mais usadas. É bem conhecido da literatura que, sob determinadas condições, a regressão linear é uma ferramenta estatística poderosíssima. Infelizmente, na prática, algumas dessas condições raramente são satisfeitas e os modelos de regressão tornam-se mal-postos, inviabilizando, assim, a aplicação dos tradicionais métodos de estimação. Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, em particular na estimação de modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. A investigação é desenvolvida em três vertentes, nomeadamente na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, na estimação do parâmetro ridge em regressão ridge e, por último, em novos desenvolvimentos na estimação com máxima entropia. Na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, o trabalho desenvolvido evidencia um melhor desempenho dos estimadores de máxima entropia em relação ao estimador de máxima verosimilhança. Este bom desempenho é notório em modelos com poucas observações por estado e em modelos com um grande número de estados, os quais são comummente afetados por colinearidade. Espera-se que a utilização de estimadores de máxima entropia contribua para o tão desejado aumento de trabalho empírico com estas fronteiras de produção. Em regressão ridge o maior desafio é a estimação do parâmetro ridge. Embora existam inúmeros procedimentos disponíveis na literatura, a verdade é que não existe nenhum que supere todos os outros. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo estimador do parâmetro ridge, que combina a análise do traço ridge e a estimação com máxima entropia. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de simulação sugerem que este novo estimador é um dos melhores procedimentos existentes na literatura para a estimação do parâmetro ridge. O estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven é baseado no método dos mínimos quadrados, na entropia de Shannon e em conceitos da eletrodinâmica quântica. Este estimador suplanta a principal crítica apontada ao estimador de máxima entropia generalizada, uma vez que prescinde dos suportes para os parâmetros e erros do modelo de regressão. Neste trabalho são apresentadas novas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, tendo por base o estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven, a teoria da informação e a regressão robusta. Os estimadores desenvolvidos revelam um bom desempenho em modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. Por último, são apresentados alguns códigos computacionais para estimação com máxima entropia, contribuindo, deste modo, para um aumento dos escassos recursos computacionais atualmente disponíveis.

Management and Control of Water Supply Systems

The fast increase in the energy’s price has brought a growing concern about the highly expensive task of transporting water. By creating an hydraulic model of the Water Supply System’s (WSS) network and predicting its behaviour, it is possible to take advantage of the energy’s tariffs, reducing the total cost on pumping activities. This thesis was developed, in association with a technology transfer project called the E-Pumping. It focuses on finding a flexible supervision and control strategy, adaptable to any existent Water Supply System (WSS), as well as forecasting the water demand on a time period chosen by the end user, so that the pumping actions could be planned to an optimum schedule, that minimizes the total operational cost. The OPC protocol, associated to a MySQL database were used to develop a flexible tool of supervision and control, due to their adaptability to function with equipments from various manufacturers, being another integrated modular part of the E-Pumping project. Furthermore, in this thesis, through the study and performance tests of several statistical models based on time series, specifically applied to this problem, a forecasting tool adaptable to any station, and whose model parameters are automatically refreshed at runtime, was developed and added to the project as another module. Both the aforementioned modules were later integrated with an Graphical User Interface (GUI) and installed in a pilot application at the ADDP’s network. The implementation of this software on WSSs across the country will reduce the water supply companies’ running costs, improving their market competition and, ultimately, lowering the water price to the end costumer.

Valorization of solid wastes from cellulose and paper industry

This thesis reports in detail studies of industrial solid wastes valorization as alternative raw materials. All tested wastes are classified as non-hazardous and are generated in the pulp and paper process, including primary sludge, dregs, grits, lime mud and bottom ash (this generated in a process that occurs in parallel to the production of cellulose, whose aim is the production of energy to supply the plant through the combustion of forest biomass in fluidized bed). A detailed general characterization was performed at each waste and according to their characteristics, they were selected some applications in materials with potential use, specifically in Fibercement, Bituminous Mixture for regularization layer and industrial mortars (rendering mortars and cementitious-adhesive). After decided to application each waste was specifically tested to proceed the setting up of formulations containing different content of waste in replacement of the raw conventional material. As an isolated case, the bottom ash was tested not only as an alternative raw material for construction materials, but also it was tested for its use in fluidized bed in which the waste is generated as raw material. Both dregs and bottom ash had undergone special treatment to make possible to obtain a better quality of waste in order do not compromise the final product characteristics and process. The dregs were tested in bituminous mixtures as received and also washed (on the laboratory scale to remove soluble salts) and bottom ash were washed and screened in industrial scale (for removal of soluble salts, especially chlorides and coarse fraction particles elimination - particles larger than 1 mm size). The remaining residues form used in such as received avoiding additional costs. The results indicated potential and some limitations for each application to the use of these wastes as alternative raw material, but in some cases, the benefits in relation to valorization overlap with its limitations in both aspects, environmental and economic.

Extension of electrochemically active sites in SOFCs and SOECs

Solid oxide fuel (SOFCs) and electrolyzer (SOECs) cells have been promoted as promising technologies for the stabilization of fuel supply and usage in future green energy systems. SOFCs are devices that produce electricity by the oxidation of hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels with high efficiency. Conversely, SOECs can offer the reverse reaction, where synthetic fuels can be generated by the input of renewable electricity. Due to this similar but inverse nature of SOFCs and SOECs, these devices have traditionally been constructed from comparable materials. Nonetheless, several limitations have hindered the entry of SOFCs and SOECs into the marketplace. One of the most debilitating is associated with chemical interreactions between cell components that can lead to poor longevities at high working temperatures and/or depleted electrochemcial performance. Normally such interreactions are countered by the introduction of thin, purely ionic conducting, buffer layers between the electrode and electrolyte interface. The objective of this thesis is to assess if possible improvements in electrode kinetics can also be obtained by modifying the transport properties of these buffer layers by the introduction of multivalent cations. The introduction of minor electronic conductivity in the surface of the electrolyte material has previously been shown to radically enhance the electrochemically active area for oxygen exchange, reducing polarization resistance losses. Hence, the current thesis aims to extend this knowledge to tailor a bi-functional buffer layer that can prevent chemical interreaction while also enhancing electrode kinetics.The thesis selects a typical scenario of an yttria stabilized zirconia electrolyte combined with a lanthanide containing oxygen electrode. Gadolinium, terbium and praseodymium doped cerium oxide materials have been investigated as potential buffer layers. The mixed ionic electronic conducting (MIEC) properties of the doped-cerium materials have been analyzed and collated. A detailed analysis is further presented of the impact of the buffer layers on the kinetics of the oxygen electrode in SOFC and SOEC devices. Special focus is made to assess for potential links between the transport properties of the buffer layer and subsequent electrode performance. The work also evaluates the electrochemical performance of different K2NiF4 structure cathodes deposited onto a peak performing Pr doped-cerium buffer layer, the influence of buffer layer thickness and the Pr content of the ceria buffer layer. It is shown that dramatic increases in electrode performance can be obtained by the introduction of MIEC buffer layers, where the best performances are shown to be offered by buffer layers of highest ambipolar conductivity. These buffer layers are also shown to continue to offer the bifunctional role to protect from unwanted chemical interactions at the electrode/electrolyte interface.

Detection of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in aqueous effluents using ionic liquids

Significant improvements in human health have been achieved through the increased consumption of pharmaceutical drugs. However, most of these active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are excreted by mammals (in a metabolized or unchanged form) into the environment. The presence of residual amounts of these contaminants was already confirmed in aqueous streams since treatment processes either wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) or sewage treatment plants (STPs) are not specifically designed for this type of pollutants. Although they are present in aqueous effluents, they are usually at very low concentrations, most of the times below the detection limits of analytical equipment used for their quantification, hindering their accurate monitoring. Therefore, the development of a pre-concentration technique in order to accurately quantify and monitor these components in aqueous streams is of major relevance. This work addresses the use of liquid-liquid equilibria, applying ionic liquids (ILs), for the extraction and concentration of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) from aqueous effluents. Particularly, aqueous biphasic systems (ABSs) composed of ILs and potassium citrate were investigated in the extraction and concentration of naproxen, diclofenac and ketoprofen from aqueous media. Both the extraction efficiency and concentration factor achievable by these systems was determined and evaluated. Within the best conditions, extraction efficiencies of 99.4% and concentration factors up to 13 times were obtained.