Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Optimal Body Size and Energy Expenditure during Winter: Why are voles smaller in declining populations?

Winter is energetically challenging for small herbivores because of greater energy requirements for thermogenesis at a time when little energy is available. We formulated a model predicting optimal wintering body size, accounting for the scaling of both energy expenditure and assimilation to body size, and the trade-off between survival benefits of a large size and avoiding survival costs of foraging. The model predicts that if the energy cost of maintaining a given body mass differs between environments, animals should be smaller in the more demanding environments, and there should be a negative correlation between body mass and daily energy expenditure (DEE) across environments. In contrast, if animals adjust their energy intake according to variation in survival costs of foraging, there should be a positive correlation between body mass and DEE. Decreasing temperature always increases equilibrium DEE, but optimal body mass may either increase or decrease in colder climates depending on the exact effects of temperature on mass-specific survival and energy demands. Measuring DEE with doubly labeled water on wintering Microtus agrestis at four field sites, we found that DEE was highest at the sites where voles were smallest despite a positive correlation between DEE and body mass within sites. This suggests that variation in wintering body mass between sites was due to variation in food quality/availability and not adjustments in foraging activity to varying risks of predation.

Differential energy costs of winter acclimatized common spiny mice Acomys cahirinus from two adjacent habitats

The common spiny mouse Acomys cahirinus, of Ethiopian origin, has a widespread distribution across arid, semi-arid and Mediterranean parts of the Arabian sub-region. We compared the daily energy expenditure (DEE), water turnover NTTO) and sustained metabolic scope (SusMS = DEE/resting metabolic rate) of two adjacent populations during the winter. Mice were captured from North- and South- facing slopes (NFS and SFS) of the same valley, comprising mesic and xeric habitats, respectively. Both DEE and SusMS winter values were greater in NFS than SFS mice and were significantly greater than values previously measured in the summer for these two populations in the same environments. However, WTO values were consistent with previously established values and were not significantly different from allometric predictions for desert eutherians. We suggest that physiological plasticity in energy expenditure, which exists both temporally and spatially, combined with stable WTO, perhaps reflecting a xeric ancestry, has enabled A. cahirinus to invade a wide range of habitats. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cooling and changing seasonality in the Southern Alps, New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal

A comprehensively C-14 AMS dated pollen and chironomid record from Boundary Stream Tarn provides the first chironomid-derived temperature reconstruction to quantify temperature change during Lateglacial times (17,500-10,000 cal yr BP) in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. The records indicate a ca 1000-year disruption to the Lateglacial warming trend and an overall cooling consistent with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR). The main interval of chironomid-inferred summer temperature depression (similar to 2-3 degrees C) lasted about 700 years during the ACR. Following this cooling event, both proxies indicate a warming step to temperatures slightly cooler than present during the Younger Dryas chronozone (12,900-11,500 cal yr BP). These results highlight a direct linkage between Antarctica and mid-latitude terrestrial climate systems and the largely asynchronous nature of the interhemispheric climate system during the last glacial transition. The greater magnitude of temperature changes shown by the chironomid record is attributed to the response of the proxies to differences in seasonal climate with chironomids reflecting summer temperature and vegetation more strongly controlled by duration of winter or by minimum temperatures. These differences imply stronger seasonality at times during the Lateglacial, which may explain some of the variability between other paleoclimate records from New Zealand and have wider implications for understanding differences between proxy records for abrupt climate change. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.