Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Waiting time for cataract surgery and its influence on patient attitudes.

PURPOSE:

To characterize willingness to pay for private operations and preferred waiting time among patients awaiting cataract surgery in Hong Kong.

METHODS:

This was a cross-sectional survey. Subjects randomly selected from cataract surgical waiting lists in Hong Kong (n = 467) underwent a telephone interview based on a structured, validated questionnaire. Data were collected on private insurance coverage, preferred waiting time, amount willing to pay for surgery, and self-reported visual function and health status.

RESULTS:

Among 300 subjects completing the interview, 144 (48.2%) were 76 years of age or older, 177 (59%) were women, and mean time waiting for surgery was 17 +/- 15 months. Among 220 subjects (73.3%) willing to pay anything for surgery, the mean amount was US$552 +/- 443. With adjustment for age, education, and monthly household income, subjects willing to pay anything were less willing to wait 12 months for surgery (OR = 4.34; P = 0.002), more likely to know someone having had cataract surgery (OR = 2.20; P = 0.03), and more likely to use their own savings to pay for the surgery (OR = 2.21; P = 0.04). Subjects considering private cataract surgery, knowing people who have had cataract surgery, using nongovernment sources to pay for surgery, and having lower visual function were willing to pay more.

CONCLUSIONS:

Many patients wait significant periods for cataract surgery in Hong Kong, and are willing to pay substantial amounts for private operations. These results may have implications for other countries with cataract waiting lists.

Investigation of the M2/G2/1/ ∞, N Queue with Restricted Admission of Priority Customers and its Application to HSDPA Mobile Systems

This paper investigates a queuing system for QoS optimization of multimedia traffic consisting of aggregated streams with diverse QoS requirements transmitted to a mobile terminal over a common downlink shared channel. The queuing system, proposed for buffer management of aggregated single-user traffic in the base station of High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), allows for optimum loss/delay/jitter performance for end-user multimedia traffic with delay-tolerant non-real-time streams and partially loss tolerant real-time streams. In the queuing system, the real-time stream has non-preemptive priority in service but the number of the packets in the system is restricted by a constant. The non-real-time stream has no service priority but is allowed unlimited access to the system. Both types of packets arrive in the stationary Poisson flow. Service times follow general distribution depending on the packet type. Stability condition for the model is derived. Queue length distribution for both types of customers is calculated at arbitrary epochs and service completion epochs. Loss probability for priority packets is computed. Waiting time distribution in terms of Laplace-Stieltjes transform is obtained for both types of packets. Mean waiting time and jitter are computed. Numerical examples presented demonstrate the effectiveness of the queuing system for QoS optimization of buffered end-user multimedia traffic with aggregated real-time and non-real-time streams.

The role of private care in the interval between diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in Northern Ireland: an analysis of Registry data

Objective: To examine the differences in the interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among women with breast cancer in Northern Ireland.

Design: A cross-sectional observational study.
Setting: All breast cancer care patients in the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry in 2006.
Participants: All women diagnosed and treated for breast cancer in Northern Ireland in 2006.
Main outcome measure: The number of days between diagnosis and initiation of treatment for breast cancer.

Results: The mean (median) interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among public patients was 19 (15) compared with 14 (12) among those whose care involved private providers. The differences between individual public providers were as marked as those between the public and private sector - the mean (median) ranging between 14 (12) and 25 (22) days. Multivariate models revealed that the differences were evident when a range of patient characteristics were controlled for including cancer stage.

Conclusions: A relatively small number of women received care privately in Northern Ireland but experienced shorter intervals between diagnosis and initiation of treatment than those who received care wholly in the public system. The variation among public providers was as great as that between the public and private providers. The impact of such differences on survival and in light of waiting time targets introduced in Northern Ireland warrants investigation.

Green function for the diffusion limit of one-dimensional continuous time random walks

It is shown how the fractional probability density diffusion equation for the diffusion limit of one-dimensional continuous time random walks may be derived from a generalized Markovian Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The non-Markovian behaviour is incorporated into the Markovian Chapman-Kolmogorov equation by postulating a Levy like distribution of waiting times as a kernel. The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation so generalised then takes on the form of a convolution integral. The dependence on the initial conditions typical of a non-Markovian process is treated by adding a time dependent term involving the survival probability to the convolution integral. In the diffusion limit these two assumptions about the past history of the process are sufficient to reproduce anomalous diffusion and relaxation behaviour of the Cole-Cole type. The Green function in the diffusion limit is calculated using the fact that the characteristic function is the Mittag-Leffler function. Fourier inversion of the characteristic function yields the Green function in terms of a Wright function. The moments of the distribution function are evaluated from the Mittag-Leffler function using the properties of characteristic functions and a relation between the powers of the second moment and higher order even moments is derived. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Waiting for International Political Sociology: A Field Guide to Living In-Between

This paper explores the in-between positionality of International Political Sociology (IPS) and offers a field guide to help scholars, students and thinkers embrace this disposition more energetically. It makes the case for a more balanced transdisciplinarity that attends to the international, the political and the social at the same time and in equal measure. The power of this in-between approach is that it forces thinkers in IPS to constantly look at the horrors of our contemporary world without turning away. Through the ambivalent position of the ‘happy wreck’, the paper explores the need to do something about these horrors (e.g. diagnose, act, intervene) while fully acknowledging that such actions always produce new forms of violence and exclusion. To help thinkers in IPS inhabit this challenging space of inquiry more confidently, the paper makes four suggestions: (i) broadening our emotional responses to the horrors of the world; (ii) resisting resolution through non-cathartic dispositions; (iii) pursuing slow research to contest dominant rhetorics of crisis and emergency; and (iv) re-imagining shared conditions of vulnerability.