Parallel Time Series Analysis and Income Inequality: A New Approach to Comparative Case Studies

This case study deals with the role of time series analysis in sociology, and its relationship with the wider literature and methodology of comparative case study research. Time series analysis is now well-represented in top-ranked sociology journals, often in the form of ‘pooled time series’ research designs. These studies typically pool multiple countries together into a pooled time series cross-section panel, in order to provide a larger sample for more robust and comprehensive analysis. This approach is well suited to exploring trans-national phenomena, and for elaborating useful macro-level theories specific to social structures, national policies, and long-term historical processes. It is less suited however, to understanding how these global social processes work in different countries. As such, the complexities of individual countries - which often display very different or contradictory dynamics than those suggested in pooled studies – are subsumed. Meanwhile, a robust literature on comparative case-based methods exists in the social sciences, where researchers focus on differences between cases, and the complex ways in which they co-evolve or diverge over time. A good example of this is the inequality literature, where although panel studies suggest a general trend of rising inequality driven by the weakening power of labour, marketisation of welfare, and the rising power of capital, some countries have still managed to remain resilient. This case study takes a closer look at what can be learned by applying the insights of case-based comparative research to the method of time series analysis. Taking international income inequality as its point of departure, it argues that we have much to learn about the viability of different combinations of policy options by examining how they work in different countries over time. By taking representative cases from different welfare systems (liberal, social democratic, corporatist, or antipodean), we can better sharpen our theories of how policies can be more specifically engineered to offset rising inequality. This involves a fundamental realignment of the strategy of time series analysis, grounding it instead in a qualitative appreciation of the historical context of cases, as a basis for comparing effects between different countries.

Is it time for standards and a common data exchange format for digital image analysis?

Digital image analysis is at a crossroads. While the technology has made great strides over the past few decades, there is an urgent need for image analysis to inform the next wave of large scale tissue biomarker discovery studies in cancer. Drawing parallels from the growth of next generation sequencing, this presentation will consider the case for a common language or standard format for storing and communicating digital image analysis data. In this context, image analysis data comprises more than simply an image with markups and attached key-value pair metrics. The desire to objectively benchmark competing platforms or a push for data to be deposited to public repositories much like genomics data may drive the need for a standard that also encompasses granular, cell-by-cell data.

The first time: young people and sex in Northern Ireland.

The sexual health of people, particularly young people, in Northern Ireland is currently poor. Yet there has been little research conducted on sexual attitudes and lifestyles. This paper is based on data from the first ever major research project in this field in Northern Ireland. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, it targeted young people aged 14-25. A combination of a self-administered survey questionnaire, focus group discussions and one-to-one interviews was found to be most suitable for the collection of sensitive data on sexuality in a country where the social and moral climate had previously prevented studies of this nature. Information was collected on sexual attitudes and behaviour generally. This paper focuses on one crucial issue: the age of first sexual encounter. It explores the attitudes of young people to that experience and the use of contraception. Many of the findings match those of similar large-scale surveys in England and Wales, including the modal age of first sexual encounter and the influence of peer pressure on decision-making about first sex. There were significant gender differences in both behaviour and attitudes. It is hoped that the research results will influence future education and health policy, which has all too often been based on ignorance.

Surface alloying and mixing at the Mn/Fe(001) interface: Real-time photoelectron spectroscopy and modified embedded atom simulations

Structural and magnetic properties of thin Mn films on the Fe(001) surface have been investigated by a combination of photoelectron spectroscopy and computer simulation in the temperature range 300 Kless than or equal toTless than or equal to750 K. Room-temperature as deposited Mn overlayers are found to be ferromagnetic up to 2.5-monolayer (ML) coverage, with a magnetic moment parallel to that of the iron substrate. The Mn atomic moment decreases with increasing coverage, and thicker samples (4-ML and 4.5-ML coverage) are antiferromagnetic. Photoemission measurements performed while the system temperature is rising at constant rate (dT/dtsimilar to0.5 K/s) detect the first signs of Mn-Fe interdiffusion at T=450 K, and reveal a broad temperature range (610 Kless than or equal toTless than or equal to680 K) in which the interface appears to be stable. Interdiffusion resumes at Tgreater than or equal to680 K. Molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations allow us to attribute the stability plateau at 610 Kless than or equal toTless than or equal to680 K to the formation of a single-layer MnFe surface alloy with a 2x2 unit cell and a checkerboard distribution of Mn and Fe atoms. X-ray-absorption spectroscopy and analysis of the dichroic signal show that the alloy has a ferromagnetic spin structure, collinear with that of the substrate. The magnetic moments of Mn and Fe atoms in the alloy are estimated to be 0.8mu(B) and 1.1mu(B), respectively.

Modeling Multivariate Interest Rates Using Time-Varying Copulas and Reducible Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations

We propose a new approach for modeling nonlinear multivariate interest rate processes based on time-varying copulas and reducible stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In the modeling of the marginal processes, we consider a class of nonlinear SDEs that are reducible to Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process or Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) (CIR) process. The reducibility is achieved via a nonlinear transformation function. The main advantage of this approach is that these SDEs can account for nonlinear features, observed in short-term interest rate series, while at the same time leading to exact discretization and closed-form likelihood functions. Although a rich set of specifications may be entertained, our exposition focuses on a couple of nonlinear constant elasticity volatility (CEV) processes, denoted as OU-CEV and CIR-CEV, respectively. These two processes encompass a number of existing models that have closed-form likelihood functions. The transition density, the conditional distribution function, and the steady-state density function are derived in closed form as well as the conditional and unconditional moments for both processes. In order to obtain a more flexible functional form over time, we allow the transformation function to be time varying. Results from our study of U.S. and UK short-term interest rates suggest that the new models outperform existing parametric models with closed-form likelihood functions. We also find the time-varying effects in the transformation functions statistically significant. To examine the joint behavior of interest rate series, we propose flexible nonlinear multivariate models by joining univariate nonlinear processes via appropriate copulas. We study the conditional dependence structure of the two rates using Patton (2006a) time-varying symmetrized Joe--Clayton copula. We find evidence of asymmetric dependence between the two rates, and that the level of dependence is positively related to the level of the two rates. (JEL: C13, C32, G12) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Time-averaged velocity and turbulence intensity at the initial downstream flow from a six-bladed propeller

The current study investigated the time-averaged velocity and turbulence intensity at the initial downstream flow from a six-bladed ship propeller. The six-bladed propeller provided the rapid periodical pulses of thrust in one revolution due to the blades leading to a complex downstream jet. The six-bladed propeller is popular as a boat racing propeller, but the presentation of its flow structure was rarely found in the previous studies. In this study, the experiments were carried out in a water tank to measure the time-averaged velocity and turbulence intensity by using a Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) system. The jet was produced by rotating the propeller at a constant speed powered by an electric motor. The maximum tangential and radial velocities of the six-bladed propeller were of 76% and 17% of the maximum axial velocity respectively. The study found that the six-bladed propeller has a lower tangential velocity, but a higher radial velocity with its own diffusing mechanism when comparing to the three-bladed propeller.