Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method

Risks are an essential feature of future climate change impacts. We explore whether knowledge that climate change might be the source of increasing pine beetle impacts on public or private forests affects stated risk estimates of damage, elicited using the exchangeability method. We find that across subjects the difference between public and private forest status does not influence stated risks, but the group told that global warming is the cause of pine beetle damage has significantly higher risk perceptions than the group not given this information.

Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states: inactivity and employment. The innovation is the recognition of defective risks. A polynomial hazard function is used to differentiate between two possible sources of infinite durations. The first is produced by a random process of unlucky draws, the second by workers rejecting a destination state. The evidence favors the mover-stayer model over the search model. Refinement of the former approach, using a more flexible baseline hazard function, produces a robust and more convincing explanation for positive and zero transition rates out of unemployment.

Radiation and the genome: from risks to opportunities for therapeutic exploitation

On 1 December 2009, the Radiation and Cancer Biology Committee of the British Institute of Radiology (BIR) held a one-day conference on the theme of radiation and the genome. Talks covered genomic instability (its importance for radiation-induced carcinogenesis and potential for exploitation in the development of novel chemoradiotherapy combinations) and the prospects of exploiting knowledge of the genome to understand how individual genetic variation can impact on a patient's likelihood of developing toxicity following radiotherapy. The meeting also provided an overview of stem cell biology and its relevance for radiotherapy in terms of both tumour (somatic) and normal tissue (germline) sensitivity to radiation. Moreover, the possibility of manipulating stem cells to reduce radiation-induced normal tissue damage was considered.