Graded Relative Evidence

Relative Evidential Supports (RES) was developed and justified several years ago as a non-numeric apparatus that allows us to compare evidential supports for alternative conclusions when making a decision. An extension called Graded Relative Evidence (GRE) of the RES concept of pairwise balancing and trading-off of evidence is reported here which keeps its basic features of simplicity and perspicacity but enriches its modelling fidelity by permitting very modest and intuitive variations in degrees of outweighing (which the essentially binary RES does not). The formal justification is very simply based on linkages to RES and to the Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence. The use of the simple extension is illustrated and to a small degree further justified empirically by application to a topical scientific debate about what is called the Congo Crossover Conjecture here. This decision-making instance is chosen because of the wealth of evidence that has been accumulated on both sides of the debate and the range of evidence strengths manifested in it. The conjecture is that the advent of Aids was in the late 1950s in the Congo when a vaccine for polio was allegedly cultivated in the kidneys of chimpanzees which allowed the Aids infection to cross over to humans from primates. © 2005 Springer.

A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Transaction Costs of Firms in the EU ETS: Lessons form Ireland

Until now, there has been little empirical evidence that EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) transaction costs are incurred at firm level. The transaction costs (internal costs, capital costs, consultancy and trading costs) incurred by Irish firms under the EU ETS during its pilot phase (2005-2007) were measured and analysed. Evidence for the sources of transaction costs, their magnitude and the distribution of costs shows that these were mainly administrative in nature. Considerable variation in costs was found due to economies of scale, as the costs per tonne of CO2 were lower for participants with larger allocations. For the largest firms - accounting for over half the emissions - average transaction costs were €0.05 per tonne. However, for small firms, average transaction costs were €2.02 - over 18% of the current allowance price. This supports the concerns that transaction costs are excessive for smaller participants. The immediate policy implication is that additional attention will be needed to address different sizes of firms, number of installations per firm, and the size of the initial allocations.

Determining trophic niche width: An experimental test of the stable isotope approach

Determining the trophic niche width of an animal population and the relative degree to which a generalist population consists of dietary specialists are long-standing problems of ecology. It has been proposed that the variance of stable isotope values in consumer tissues could be used to quantify trophic niche width of consumer populations. However, this promising idea has not yet been rigorously tested. By conducting controlled laboratory experiments using model consumer populations (Daphnia sp., Crustacea) with controlled diets, we investigated the effect of individual- and population-level specialisation and generalism on consumer d C mean and variance values. While our experimental data follow general expectations, we extend current qualitative models to quantitative predictions of the dependence of isotopic variance on dietary correlation time, a measure for the typical time over which a consumer changes its diet. This quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint possible procedural pitfalls and critical sources of measurement uncertainty. Our results show that the stable isotope approach represents a powerful method for estimating trophic niche widths, especially when taking the quantitative concept of dietary correlation time into account. © 2012 The Authors.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Generation in Europe

Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.

Quantifying forage specialisation in polyphagic insects: the polylectic and rare solitary bee, Colletes floralis (Hymenoptera: Colletidae)

Many insect species vary in their degree of foraging specialisation, with many bee species considered polyphagic (polylectic). Wild, non-managed bee species vary in their conservation status, and species-specific biological traits such as foraging specialisation may play an important role in determining variance in population declines. Current agri-environment schemes (AESs) prescribe the introduction of flower seed mixes for agricultural systems to aid the conservation of wild bees. However, the extent to which flower combinations adequately meet bee foraging requirements is poorly known. We quantitatively assessed pollen use and selectivity using two statistical approaches: Bailey's Intervals and Compositional Analysis, in an examplar species, a purportedly polylectic and rare bee, Colletes floralis, across 7 sites through detailed analysis of bee scopal pollen loads and flower abundance. Both approaches provided good congruence, but Compositional Analysis was more robust to small sample sizes. We advocate its use for the quantitative determination of foraging behaviour and dietary preference. Although C. floralis is polylectic, it showed a clear dietary preference for plants within the family Apiaceae. Where Apiaceae was uncommon, the species exploited alternative resources. Other plant families, such as the Apiaceae, could be included, or have their proportion increased in AES seed mixes, to aid the management of C. floralis and potentially other wild solitary bees of conservation concern. © 2011 The Authors. Insect Conservation and Diversity © 2011 The Royal Entomological Society.