Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Development and independent validation of a prognostic assay for stage ii colon cancer using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue

Purpose: Current prognostic factors are poor at identifying patients at risk of disease recurrence after surgery for stage II colon cancer. Here we describe a DNA microarray-based prognostic assay using clinically relevant formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Patients and Methods: A gene signature was developed from a balanced set of 73 patients with recurrent disease (high risk) and 142 patients with no recurrence (low risk) within 5 years of surgery. Results: The 634-probe set signature identified high-risk patients with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.62 (P <.001) during cross validation of the training set. In an independent validation set of 144 samples, the signature identified high-risk patients with an HR of 2.53 (P <.001) for recurrence and an HR of 2.21 (P = .0084) for cancer-related death. Additionally, the signature was shown to perform independently from known prognostic factors (P <.001). Conclusion: This gene signature represents a novel prognostic biomarker for patients with stage II colon cancer that can be applied to FFPE tumor samples. © 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

TAZ Expression as a Prognostic Indicator in Colorectal Cancer

The Hippo pathway restricts the activity of transcriptional coactivators TAZ (WWTR1) and YAP. TAZ and YAP are reported to be overexpressed in various cancers, however, their prognostic significance in colorectal cancers remains unstudied. The expression levels of TAZ and YAP, and their downstream transcriptional targets, AXL and CTGF, were extracted from two independent colon cancer patient datasets available in the Gene Expression Omnibus database, totaling 522 patients. We found that mRNA expressions of both TAZ and YAP were positively correlated with those of AXL and CTGF (p<0.05). High level mRNA expression of TAZ, AXL or CTGF significantly correlated with shorter survival. Importantly, patients co-overexpressing all 3 genes had a significantly shorter survival time, and combinatorial expression of these 3 genes was an independent predictor for survival. The downstream target genes for TAZ-AXL-CTGF overexpression were identified by Java application MyStats. Interestingly, genes that are associated with colon cancer progression (ANTXR1, EFEMP2, SULF1, TAGLN, VCAN, ZEB1 and ZEB2) were upregulated in patients co-overexpressing TAZ-AXL-CTGF. This TAZ-AXL-CTGF gene expression signature (GES) was then applied to Connectivity Map to identify small molecules that could potentially be utilized to reverse this GES. Of the top 20 small molecules identified by connectivity map, amiloride (a potassium sparing diuretic,) and tretinoin (all-trans retinoic acid) have shown therapeutic promise in inhibition of colon cancer cell growth. Using MyStats, we found that low level expression of either ANO1 or SQLE were associated with a better prognosis in patients who co-overexpressed TAZ-AXL-CTGF, and that ANO1 was an independent predictor of survival together with TAZ-AXL-CTGF. Finally, we confirmed that TAZ regulates Axl, and plays an important role in clonogenicity and non-adherent growth in vitro and tumor formation in vivo. These data suggest that TAZ could be a therapeutic target for the treatment of colon cancer.

Association Between Results of a Gene Expression Signature Assay and Recurrence-Free Interval in Patients With Stage II Colon Cancer in Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 (Alliance)

PURPOSE: Conventional staging methods are inadequate to identify patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) who are at high risk of recurrence after surgery with curative intent. ColDx is a gene expression, microarray-based assay shown to be independently prognostic for recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival in CC. The objective of this study was to further validate ColDx using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected as part of the Alliance phase III trial, C9581.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: C9581 evaluated edrecolomab versus observation in patients with stage II CC and reported no survival benefit. Under an initial case-cohort sampling design, a randomly selected subcohort (RS) comprised 514 patients from 901 eligible patients with available tissue. Forty-nine additional patients with recurrence events were included in the analysis. Final analysis comprised 393 patients: 360 RS (58 events) and 33 non-RS events. Risk status was determined for each patient by ColDx. The Self-Prentice method was used to test the association between the resulting ColDx risk score and RFI adjusting for standard prognostic variables.

RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of patients (216 of 393) were classified as high risk. After adjustment for prognostic variables that included mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, ColDx high-risk patients exhibited significantly worse RFI (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.5; P < .01). Age and MMR status were marginally significant. RFI at 5 years for patients classified as high risk was 82% (95% CI, 79% to 85%), compared with 91% (95% CI, 89% to 93%) for patients classified as low risk.

CONCLUSION: ColDx is associated with RFI in the C9581 subsample in the presence of other prognostic factors, including MMR deficiency. ColDx could be incorporated with the traditional clinical markers of risk to refine patient prognosis.

Homozygous deletion mapping in myeloma samples identifies genes and an expression signature relevant to pathogenesis and outcome.

PURPOSE: Myeloma is a clonal malignancy of plasma cells. Poor-prognosis risk is currently identified by clinical and cytogenetic features. However, these indicators do not capture all prognostic information. Gene expression analysis can be used to identify poor-prognosis patients and this can be improved by combination with information about DNA-level changes. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Using single nucleotide polymorphism-based gene mapping in combination with global gene expression analysis, we have identified homozygous deletions in genes and networks that are relevant to myeloma pathogenesis and outcome. RESULTS: We identified 170 genes with homozygous deletions and corresponding loss of expression. Deletion within the "cell death" network was overrepresented and cases with these deletions had impaired overall survival. From further analysis of these events, we have generated an expression-based signature associated with shorter survival in 258 patients and confirmed this signature in data from two independent groups totaling 800 patients. We defined a gene expression signature of 97 cell death genes that reflects prognosis and confirmed this in two independent data sets. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple 6-gene expression signature from the 97-gene signature that can be used to identify poor-prognosis myeloma in the clinical environment. This signature could form the basis of future trials aimed at improving the outcome of poor-prognosis myeloma.

Cathepsin S expression: An independent prognostic factor in glioblastoma tumours - A pilot Study

Cysteine proteinases have been implicated in astrocytoma invasion. We recently demonstrated that cathepsin S (CatS) expression is up-regulated in astrocytomas and provided evidence for a potential role in astrocytoma invasion (Flannery et al., Am J Path 2003;163(1):175–82). We aimed to evaluate the significance of CatS in human astrocytoma progression and as a prognostic marker. Frozen tissue homogenates from 71 patients with astrocytomas and 3 normal brain specimens were subjected to ELISA analyses. Immunohistochemical analysis of CatS expression was performed on 126 paraffin-embedded tumour samples. Fifty-one astrocytoma cases were suitable for both frozen tissue and paraffin tissue analysis. ELISA revealed minimal expression of CatS in normal brain homogenates. CatS expression was increased in grade IV tumours whereas astrocytoma grades I–III exhibited lower values. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed a similar pattern of expression. Moreover, high-CatS immunohistochemical scores in glioblastomas were associated with significantly shorter survival (10 vs. 5 months, p = 0.014). With forced inclusion of patient age, radiation dose and Karnofsky score in the Cox multivariate model, CatS score was found to be an independent predictor of survival. CatS expression in astrocytomas is associated with tumour progression and poor outcome in glioblastomas. CatS may serve as a useful prognostic indicator and potential target for anti-invasive therapy.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part II: Identifying Fault Magnitude and Signature

This paper builds on work presented in the first paper, Part 1 [1] and is of equal significance. The paper proposes a novel compensation method to preserve the integrity of step-fault signatures prevalent in various processes that can be masked during the removal of both auto- and cross correlation. Using industrial data, the paper demonstrates the benefit of the proposed method, which is applicable to chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring. This paper, (and Part 1 [1]), has led to further work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 involving kernel PCA methods.