5 resultados para population model


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We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2013fc, a bright type II supernova (SN) in a circumnuclear star-forming ring in the luminous infrared galaxy ESO 154-G010, observed as part of the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects. SN 2013fc is both photometrically and spectroscopically similar to the well-studied type IIn SN 1998S and to the bright type II-L SN 1979C. It exhibits an initial linear decline, followed by a short plateau phase and a tail phase with a decline too fast for 56Co decay with full γ -ray trapping. Initially, the spectrum was blue and featureless. Later on, a strong broad (~8000 km s-1) H α emission profile became prominent. We apply a STARLIGHT stellar population model fit to the SN location (observed when the SN had faded) to estimate a high extinction of AV = 2.9 ± 0.2 mag and an age of 10+3 -2 Myr for the underlying cluster.We compare the SN to SNe 1998S and 1979C and discuss its possible progenitor star considering the similarities to these events. With a peak brightness of B = -20.46 ± 0.21 mag, SN 2013fc is 0.9 mag brighter than SN 1998S and of comparable brightness to SN 1979C.We suggest that SN 2013fc was consistent with a massive red supergiant (RSG) progenitor. Recent mass loss probably due to a strong RSG wind created the circumstellar matter illuminated through its interaction with the SN ejecta. We also observe a near-infrared excess, possibly due to newly condensed dust.

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We report the discovery, tracking, and detection circumstances for 85 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) from the first 42 deg2 of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey. This ongoing r-band solar system survey uses the 0.9 deg2 field of view MegaPrime camera on the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. Our orbital elements for these TNOs are precise to a fractional semimajor axis uncertainty <0.1%. We achieve this precision in just two oppositions, as compared to the normal three to five oppositions, via a dense observing cadence and innovative astrometric technique. These discoveries are free of ephemeris bias, a first for large trans-Neptunian surveys. We also provide the necessary information to enable models of TNO orbital distributions to be tested against our TNO sample. We confirm the existence of a cold "kernel" of objects within the main cold classical Kuiper Belt and infer the existence of an extension of the "stirred" cold classical Kuiper Belt to at least several au beyond the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Neptune. We find that the population model of Petit et al. remains a plausible representation of the Kuiper Belt. The full survey, to be completed in 2017, will provide an exquisitely characterized sample of important resonant TNO populations, ideal for testing models of giant planet migration during the early history of the solar system.

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Since the beginning of the 20th century, the Garden City model has been a predominant theory emerging from Ecological Urbanism. In his book Howard observed the disastrous effects of rapid urbanization and as a response, proposed the Garden City. Although Howard’s proposal was first published in the late 1800’s, the clear imbalance that Howard aimed to address is still prevalent in the UK today. Each year, the UK wastes nearly 15 million tons of food, despite this an estimated 500,000 people in the UK go without sufficient access to food. While the urban population is rapidly increasing and cities are becoming hubs of economic activity, producing wealth and improving education and access to markets, it is within these cities that the imbalance is most evident, with a significant proportion of the world’s population with unmet needs living in urban areas. Despite Howard’s model being a response to 17th century London, many still consider the Garden City model to be an effective solution for the 21st century. In his book, Howard details the metrics required for the design of a Garden City. This paper will discuss how, by using this methodology and comparing it with more recent studies by Cornell University and Matthew Wheeland (Pure Energies); it is possible to test the validity of Howard’s proposal to establish whether the Garden City model is a viable solution to the increasing pressures of urbanization.
This paper outlines how the analysis of Howard’s proposal has shown the model to be flawed, incapable of producing enough food to sustain the proposed 32,000 population, with a capacity to produce only 23% of the food required to meet the current average UK consumption rate. Beyond the limited productive capacity of Howard’s model, the design itself does little to increase local resilience or the ecological base. This paper will also discuss how a greater understanding of the
Land-share requirements enables the design of a new urban model, building on the foundations initially laid out by Howard and combining a number of other theories to produce a more resilient and efficient model of ecological urbanism.

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AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.