Analysing orchestrations with risk profiles and angel-daemon games

In this paper game theory is used to analyse the effect of a number of service failures during the execution of a grid orchestration. A service failure may be catastrophic in that it causes an entire orchestration to fail. Alternatively, a grid manager may utilise alternative services in the case of failure, allowing an orchestration to recover, A risk profile provides a means of modelling situations in a way that is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. Risk profiles are analysed using angel and daemon games. A risk profile can be assigned a valuation through an analysis of the structure of its associated Nash equilibria. Some structural properties of valuation functions, that show their validity as a measure for risk, are given. Two main cases are considered, the assessment of Orc expressions and the arrangement of a meeting using reputations.

Data mining approach identifies research priorities and data requirements for resolving the red algal tree of life

Background. The assembly of the tree of life has seen significant progress in recent years but algae and protists have been largely overlooked in this effort. Many groups of algae and protists have ancient roots and it is unclear how much data will be required to resolve their phylogenetic relationships for incorporation in the tree of life. The red algae, a group of primary photosynthetic eukaryotes of more than a billion years old, provide the earliest fossil evidence for eukaryotic multicellularity and sexual reproduction. Despite this evolutionary significance, their phylogenetic relationships are understudied. This study aims to infer a comprehensive red algal tree of life at the family level from a supermatrix containing data mined from GenBank. We aim to locate remaining regions of low support in the topology, evaluate their causes and estimate the amount of data required to resolve them. Results. Phylogenetic analysis of a supermatrix of 14 loci and 98 red algal families yielded the most complete red algal tree of life to date. Visualization of statistical support showed the presence of five poorly supported regions. Causes for low support were identified with statistics about the age of the region, data availability and node density, showing that poor support has different origins in different parts of the tree. Parametric simulation experiments yielded optimistic estimates of how much data will be needed to resolve the poorly supported regions (ca. 103 to ca. 104 nucleotides for the different regions). Nonparametric simulations gave a markedly more pessimistic image, some regions requiring more than 2.8 105 nucleotides or not achieving the desired level of support at all. The discrepancies between parametric and nonparametric simulations are discussed in light of our dataset and known attributes of both approaches. Conclusions. Our study takes the red algae one step closer to meaningful inclusion in the tree of life. In addition to the recovery of stable relationships, the recognition of five regions in need of further study is a significant outcome of this work. Based on our analyses of current availability and future requirements of data, we make clear recommendations for forthcoming research.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

E-Participation and E-Participants: solving the patent ‘crisis’

One of the major planks of some visions for E-Gov is that there is a willing participatory group who are more than happy to be involved in new forms of democracy and will be active and useful suppliers of input to e-consultation or e-participation processes. This group is different from that which goes online to the government site web and signs a petition asking the prime minister to resign. It is becoming clear, though, that the commitment to e-participation may well be there in theory, but difficult to access in practice. Further, the participation which is most welcome can frequently require training and expertise which is not widely available or there may be differences in opinion as to the point of participation. In this paper I will look to the attempts to encourage participation in the patent system. The UK is about to initiate a trial system utilising New York Law School’s Peer To Patent project, but has also attempted to involve participants in previous consultation exercises. I will use these as demonstrations of the sorts of problems which e-participation has met, and consider whether this new form of E-Gov is perhaps being oversold. The interesting question is whether participation is a growing tool which can ensure better public services from the State. My conclusion is that consultation and participatory projects can demonstrate involvement and are certainly educative but e-participatory projects are most likely incapable of achieving the goals set by their more optimistic advocates. The paper emphasises the patents field, but the lessons from it can – I suggest – be viewed as indicators having wider governance relevance. The primary point being made is that the technocratic view is always over-optimistic.

Stress and eustress in nursing students

Aim. This paper is a report of a study to identify experiences that led to both distress and eustress and to make recommendations to help students cope with course demands.

Background. Much of the research on stress in nursing students is quantitative in focus and all draws on their experience of distress, with little attempt to understand experiences of eustress.

Method. A series of focus groups were carried out with a volunteer sample of final year nursing students (n = 16) in the United Kingdom in 2007. The data were thematically analysed.

Findings. The themes identified were clinical experience, support, learning and teaching experience and course structure. There were experiences within each that were perceived as sources of distress and eustress. Many of the sources of distress concur with earlier findings but they are more likely to be experienced and commented on because the demands of present-day programmes and the profile of many nursing students mean that more effort is invested in meeting educational demands. The experiential learning and patient-care opportunity that placements provided was an important source of eustress.

Conclusion. Students who coped well drew on effective support networks and adopted a positive, optimistic perspective towards programme issues. Effective educators did not offer more time than those perceived as less effective but seemed more effective at tuning into students' concerns, showing more empathy and offering clearer guidance.

Biomarkers in diabetes:hemoglobin A1c, vascular and tissue markers

Biomarkers are conventionally defined as "biological molecules that represent health and disease states." They typically are measured in readily available body fluids (blood or urine), lie outside the causal pathway, are able to detect subclinical disease, and are used to monitor clinical and subclinical disease burden and response to treatments. Biomarkers can be "direct" endpoints of the disease itself, or "indirect" or surrogate endpoints. New technologies (such as metabolomics, proteomics, genomics) bring a wealth of opportunity to develop new biomarkers. Other new technologies enable the development of nonmolecular, functional, or biophysical tissue-based biomarkers. Diabetes mellitus is a complex disease affecting almost every tissue and organ system, with metabolic ramifications extending far beyond impaired glucose metabolism. Biomarkers may reflect the presence and severity of hyperglycemia (ie, diabetes itself) or the presence and severity of the vascular complications of diabetes. Illustrative examples are considered in this brief review. In blood, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) may be considered as a biomarker for the presence and severity of hyperglycemia, implying diabetes or prediabetes, or, over time, as a "biomarker for a risk factor," ie, hyperglycemia as a risk factor for diabetic retinopathy, nephropathy, and other vascular complications of diabetes. In tissues, glycation and oxidative stress resulting from hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia lead to widespread modification of biomolecules by advanced glycation end products (AGEs). Some of these altered species may serve as biomarkers, whereas others may lie in the causal pathway for vascular damage. New noninvasive technologies can detect tissue damage mediated by AGE formation: these include indirect measures such as pulse wave analysis (a marker of vascular dysfunction) and more direct markers such as skin autofluorescence (a marker of long-term accumulation of AGEs). In the future, we can be optimistic that new blood and tissue-based biomarkers will enable the detection, prevention, and treatment of diabetes and its complications long before overt disease develops.

Short-Sale Constraints and the Pricing of Managerial Skills

We investigate the impact of the absence of short selling on the pricing of managerial skills in the mutual fund industry. In the presence of divergent opinions regarding managerial skills, fund managers can strategically use fees to attract only the most optimistic capital. The recognition of this fee strategy helps explain a set of stylized observations and puzzles in the mutual fund industry, including the underperformance of active funds, the existence of flow convexity, and the negative correlation between gross-of-fee α and fees.

Mutual Funds and Mispriced Stocks

We find a strong negative predictive relation between the propensity of active mutual funds to hold overpriced stocks and their subsequent performance. High-propensity funds, or overpriced funds, display poor stock picking skills as they further purchase overpriced stocks during episodes of fund inflows. Interestingly, overpriced funds attract considerable capital inflows during high sentiment episodes, after controlling for the effects of past fund performance. The overall evidence is consistent with the notion that overpriced funds, unable to improve their stock picking skills through time, target optimistic investors by engaging in marketing activities and catering to preferences for skewed returns.

Socioeconomic inequalities in attitudes towards cancer: An international cancer benchmarking partnership study

Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in attitudes towards cancer have been implicated in the differential screening uptake and the timeliness of symptomatic presentation. However, the predominant emphasis of this work has been on cancer fatalism, and many studies focus on specific community subgroups. This study aimed to assess SES differences in positive and negative attitudes towards cancer in UK adults. A population-based sample of UK adults (n=6965, age≥50 years) completed the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer scale, including six belief items: three positively framed (e.g. 'Cancer can often be cured') and three negatively framed (e.g. 'A cancer diagnosis is a death sentence'). SES was indexed by education. Analyses controlled for sex, ethnicity, marital status, age, self-rated health, and cancer experience. There were few education-level differences for the positive statements, and overall agreement was high (all>90%). In contrast, there were strong differences for negative statements (all Ps<0.001). Among respondents with lower education levels, 57% agreed that 'treatment is worse than cancer', 27% that cancer is 'a death sentence' and 16% 'would not want to know if I have cancer'. Among those with university education, the respective proportions were 34, 17 and 6%. Differences were not explained by cancer experience or health status. In conclusion, positive statements about cancer outcomes attract near-universal agreement. However, this optimistic perspective coexists alongside widespread fears about survival and treatment, especially among less-educated groups. Health education campaigns targeting socioeconomically disadvantaged groups might benefit from a focus on reducing negative attitudes, which is not necessarily achieved by promoting positive attitudes.

Mining Money: the generative capacities of scientific and legal knowledge practices in the making of resource economies

In 1997 a scandal associated with Bre-X, a junior mining firm, and its prospecting activities in Indonesia, exposed to public scrutiny the ways in which mineral exploration firms acquire, assess and report on scientific claims about the natural environment. At stake here was not just how investors understood the provisional nature of scientific knowledge, but also evidence of fraud. Contemporaneous mining scandals not only included the salting of cores, but also unreliable proprietary sample preparation and assay methods, mis-representations of visual field estimates as drilling results and ‘overly optimistic’ geological reports. This paper reports on initiatives taken in the wake of these scandals and prompted by the Mining Standards Task Force (TSE/OSC 1999). For regulators, mandated to increase investor confidence in Canada’s leading role within the global mining industry, efforts focused first and foremost upon identifying and removing sources of error and wilfulness within the production and circulation of scientific knowledge claims. A common goal cross-cutting these initiatives was ‘a faithful representation of nature’ (Daston and Galison 2010), however, as the paper argues, this was manifest in an assemblage of practices governed by distinct and rival regulative visions of science and the making of markets in claims about ‘nature’. These ‘practices of fidelity’, it is argued, can be consequential in shaping the spatial and temporal dynamics of the marketization of nature.

Three-dimensional simulations of gravitationally confined detonations compared to observations of SN 1991T

The gravitationally confined detonation (GCD) model has been proposed as a possible explosion mechanism for Type Ia supernovae in the single-degenerate evolution channel. It starts with ignition of a deflagration in a single off-centre bubble in a near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf. Driven by buoyancy, the deflagration flame rises in a narrow cone towards the surface. For the most part, the main component of the flow of the expanding ashes remains radial, but upon reaching the outer, low-pressure layers of the white dwarf, an additional lateral component develops. This causes the deflagration ashes to converge again at the opposite side, where the compression heats fuel and a detonation may be launched. We first performed five three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of the deflagration phase in 1.4 M⊙ carbon/oxygen white dwarfs at intermediate-resolution (2563computational zones). We confirm that the closer the initial deflagration is ignited to the centre, the slower the buoyant rise and the longer the deflagration ashes takes to break out and close in on the opposite pole to collide. To test the GCD explosion model, we then performed a high-resolution (5123 computational zones) simulation for a model with an ignition spot offset near the upper limit of what is still justifiable, 200 km. This high-resolution simulation met our deliberately optimistic detonation criteria, and we initiated a detonation. The detonation burned through the white dwarf and led to its complete disruption. For this model, we determined detailed nucleosynthetic yields by post-processing 106 tracer particles with a 384 nuclide reaction network, and we present multi-band light curves and time-dependent optical spectra. We find that our synthetic observables show a prominent viewing-angle sensitivity in ultraviolet and blue wavelength bands, which contradicts observed SNe Ia. The strong dependence on the viewing angle is caused by the asymmetric distribution of the deflagration ashes in the outer ejecta layers. Finally, we compared our model to SN 1991T. The overall flux level of the model is slightly too low, and the model predicts pre-maximum light spectral features due to Ca, S, and Si that are too strong. Furthermore, the model chemical abundance stratification qualitatively disagrees with recent abundance tomography results in two key areas: our model lacks low-velocity stable Fe and instead has copious amounts of high-velocity 56Ni and stable Fe. We therefore do not find good agreement of the model with SN 1991T.