On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Test stimulus characteristics determine the perceived speed of the dynamic motion aftereffect

Using a speed-matching task, we measured the speed tuning of the dynamic motion aftereVect (MAE). The results of our Wrst experiment, in which we co-varied dot speed in the adaptation and test stimuli, revealed a speed tuning function. We sought to tease apart what contribution, if any, the test stimulus makes towards the observed speed tuning. This was examined by independently manipulating dot speed in the adaptation and test stimuli, and measuring the eVect this had on the perceived speed of the dynamic MAE. The results revealed that the speed tuning of the dynamic MAE is determined, not by the speed of the adaptation stimulus, but by the local motion characteristics of the dynamic test stimulus. The role of the test stimulus in determining the perceived speed of the dynamic MAE was conWrmed by showing that, if one uses a test stimulus containing two sources of local speed information, observers report seeing a transparent MAE; this is despite the fact that adaptation is induced using a single-speed stimulus. Thus while the adaptation stimulus necessarily determines perceived direction of the dynamic MAE, its perceived speed is determined by the test stimulus. This dissociation of speed and direction supports the notion that the processing of these two visual attributes may be partially independent.

A novel diagnostic test detects a low frequency of the hemicentin Gln5345Arg variant among Northern Irish age related macular degeneration patients.

Purpose: Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common cause of severe vision loss. Identification of genes involved in AMD will facilitate early detection and ultimately help to identify pathways for treatment for this disorder. The A16,263G mutation in the HEMICENTIN-1 gene produces a non-conservative substitution of arginine for glutamine at codon 5345 which has been implicated in familial AMD. The aim of this study is to develop a rapid diagnostic assay for the detection of this mutation and to evaluate its frequency in a sample of AMD patients. Methods: A primer probe set was designed from exon 104 of the HEMICENTIN-1 gene to differentiate between mutant and wild type alleles. A region spanning the mutation was amplified by PCR using a LightCycler (Roche Diagnostic). The mutation was then detected by melt curve analysis of the hybrid formed between the PCR product and a specific fluorescent probe. The frequency of the mutation within the Northern Ireland population was evaluated by assaying 508 affected AMD patients, 25 possibly affected and 163 controls. Results: This assay clearly discriminates between the A16,263G mutant and wild type HEMICENTIN-1 alleles. The wild type sequence has a single base mismatch with the probe which decreases the stability of the hybrid, resulting in a lower TM (TM=51.27 °C) than that observed for the perfectly matched mutant allele (TM=59.9 °C). The mutant allele was detected in only one of the 696 subjects, an affected AMD patient. Conclusions: We describe a rapid assay for the genotyping of the Gln5345Arg mutation using real-time fluorescence PCR to facilitate rapid processing of samples through combined amplification and detection steps. These characteristics are suitable for a clinical setting where high throughput diagnostic procedures are required. The frequency of this mutation within the Northern Ireland population has been estimated at 0.2%, concurring with previous findings that this mutation is a rare variant associated with AMD. A rapid diagnostic assay will facilitate a reliable and convenient evaluation of the frequency of the Gln5345Arg mutation and its association with AMD within other populations.