History Matters: How International Regimes Become Entrenched—and Why We Suffer for It

International regimes are composite historical constructions. They are built-up through bricolage, as resource-strapped officials combine operational capacities, frequently turning to outside assistance. Who wins and loses—and why—when organisations are added or subtracted? What happens when inter-organisational relations are recalibrated? Why do regimes cohere as they do? By comparing the development of financial-regulatory regimes and probing other illustrative cases, I offer an explanatory framework that emphasizes the importance of timing and sequencing in determining outcomes. Thinking beyond interstate network effects and switching costs, I distil new data and theoretical insights into how and why temporality matters in global politics. I find that time structures the strategic bargaining contexts that mediate the intense distributional struggles between organisations driving key institutional reforms. The explanatory power of this framework upsets conventional wisdom whereby the distribution of state power, and the dynamics of interstate bargaining, are assumed the critical sources of institutional reform.

Cross-section and panel estimates of peer effects in early adolescent cannabis use: With a little help from my ‘friends once removed’

Peer effects in adolescent cannabis are difficult to estimate, due in part to the lack of appropriate data on behaviour and social ties. This paper exploits survey data that have many desirable properties and have not previously been used for this purpose. The data set, collected from teenagers in three annual waves from 2002-2004 contains longitudinal information about friendship networks within schools (N = 5,020). We exploit these data on network structure to estimate peer effects on adolescents from their nominated friends within school using two alternative approaches to identification. First, we present a cross-sectional instrumental variable (IV) estimate of peer effects that exploits network structure at the second degree, i.e. using information on friends of friends who are not themselves ego’s friends to instrument for the cannabis use of friends. Second, we present an individual fixed effects estimate of peer effects using the full longitudinal structure of the data. Both innovations allow a greater degree of control for correlated effects than is commonly the case in the substance-use peer effects literature, improving our chances of obtaining estimates of peer effects than can be plausibly interpreted as causal. Both estimates suggest positive peer effects of non-trivial magnitude, although the IV estimate is imprecise. Furthermore, when we specify identical models with behaviour and characteristics of randomly selected school peers in place of friends’, we find effectively zero effect from these ‘placebo’ peers, lending credence to our main estimates. We conclude that cross-sectional data can be used to estimate plausible positive peer effects on cannabis use where network structure information is available and appropriately exploited.

The effects of transients on photospheric and chromospheric power distributions

We have observed a quiet Sun region with the Swedish 1-meter Solar Telescope (SST) equipped with CRISP Imaging SpectroPolarimeter. High-resolution, high-cadence, H-alpha line scanning images were taken to observe different layers of the solar atmosphere from the photosphere to upper chromosphere. We study the distribution of power in different period-bands at different heights. Power maps of the upper photosphere and the lower chromosphere show suppressed power surrounding the magnetic-network elements, known as "magnetic shadows". These also show enhanced power close to the photosphere, traditionally referred to as"power halos". The interaction between acoustic waves and inclined magnetic fields is generally believed to be responsible for these two effects. In this study we explore if small-scale transients can influence the distribution of power at different heights. We show that the presence of transients, like mottles, Rapid Blueshifted Excursions (RBEs) and Rapid Redshifted Excursions (RREs), can strongly influence the power-maps. The short and finite lifetime of these events strongly affects all powermaps, potentially influencing the observed power distribution. We show that Doppler-shifted transients like RBEs and RREs that occur ubiquitously, can have a dominant effect on the formation ofthe power halos in the quiet Sun. For magnetic shadows, transients like mottles do not seem to have a significant effect in the power suppression around 3 minutes and wave interaction may play a key role here. Our high cadence observations reveal that flows, waves and shocks manifest in presence of magnetic fields to form a non-linear magnetohydrodynamic system.