Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Using Non-Monetary Deprivation Indicators to Analyze Poverty and Social Exclusion: Lessons from Europe?

Non-monetary indicators of deprivation are now widely used in studying poverty in Europe. While measuring financial resources remains central, having reliable information about material deprivation adds to the ability to capture poverty and social exclusion. Non-monetary indicators can help improve the identification of those experiencing poverty and understand how it comes about. They are most productively used when multidimensionality is explicitly taken into account, both in framing the question and in empirical application. While serious methodological and measurement issues remain to be addressed, material deprivation indicators allow for new insights in making poverty comparisons across countries and analyzing changes over time. (C) 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

The German Federal Constitutional Court's Ruling on Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - Another Step Towards National Closure?

The German Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) ruling of 14 January 2014 deserves a thorough evaluation on several accounts: It is the first ever reference by the FCC to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), it represents a continuation of FCC case law aimed at restricting the impact of European Union law as interpreted by the Court of Justices of the European Union (CJEU) on German law as well as questioning Germany’s participation in an ever closer European Union, and it has the potential to dictate the future course of the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

This case note discusses three aspects of this decision. First, it considers the aims of challenging the youngest measures to contain the euro currency crisis before the FCC, focusing on the question in how far the claims are based on national closure as opposed to an ever closer union of the peoples of Europe. Secondly it analyzes in how far the aims the claims pursue are reflected in the FCC’s response. Thirdly, it considers the substantive relevance of this reference, highlighting the surprisingly vague consequences the FCC envisages should the CJEU not re-interpret the OMT decision as the FCC suggests, and illuminating the strategic aims of the reference without deference. In conclusion, it sketches the remaining scope for the EU to engage in or at least facilitate transnational solidarity.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

The Monetary Value Of Meat Authenticity And Food Safety In Ready To Heat Lasagne: Implications Of The ‘Horse Meat Scandal’ Across Europe

The recent ‘horse meat scandal’ in Europe has sparked huge concerns among consumers, as horse meat was found in beef lasagne ready to be consumed. Within STARTEC, a European funded project, this study investigates consumers’ preferences, attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) towards characteristics of ready to heat (RTH) fresh lasagne, including origin of the meat, tested for meat authenticity, safety of the lasagne, and nutritional value, using Discrete Choice Experiments in six countries - Republic of Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Norway. Our representative sample of 4,598 European consumers makes this the largest cross country study of this kind. The questionnaire was administered online in January 2014. Results from models in WTP-space show that, on average, consumers are willing to pay considerable amount (about €4-9) for food authenticity; on this Irish and Italian are the least concerned while Spanish are the most concerned. As expected from discussing with stakeholders, food safety claims and nutritional value of the RTH lasagne are relatively less important. Consumers also value knowing the origin of ingredients preferring locally sourced meat. Primarily, the results of this study present strong evidence that consumers in Europe are highly concerned about authenticity of the meat in ready meals and strongly prefer to know that the meat is national. This evidence suggests that there is great value in providing information on these attributes, both from a consumer perspective and where this leads to an increased consumer confidence has benefits for the food industry.

Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Rural Development Group Politics. A hidden cost?

I challenge the popular notion of European rural development group dynamics and argue for a better understanding of the role of micro-politics as a means of enhancing the performance of these groups. The views are research based and have relevance to the broader rural development and regeneration sector. Micro-politics involves knowledge, power, trust, perceptions, understanding, social networks, values and traits that arise as a result of individuals interacting within a group whilst working on a shared goal, such as rural development. The monetary and time costs to a community of failing to address micro-politics and nurture positive group relations are considerable. These include time spent in unproductive meetings and poorly prioritized—and ultimately unsuccessful—funding applications as a result of failure to agree priorities. Successful groups rely on individuals interacting in a way that achieves a greater social good. Mutual trust amongst the actors lies at the heart of effective group activity. Effective management of micro-politics requires steps to nurture a culture of mutual trust to ensure that rural development actors co-operate rather than play destructive games with one another. A case study example of a relatively straightforward approach illustrates how this might be done in practice.

The Sustainability Balanced Scorecard. Linking Sustainability Management to Business Strategy.

The Balanced Scorecard of Kaplan and Norton is a management tool that supports the successful implementation of corporate strategies. It has been discussed and considered widely in both practice and research. By linking operational and non-financial corporate activities with causal chains to the firm's long-term strategy, the Balanced Scorecard supports the alignment and management of all corporate activities according to their strategic relevance. The Balanced Scorecard makes it possible to take into account non-monetary strategic success factors that significantly impact the economic success of a business. The Balanced Scorecard is thus a promising starting-point to also incorporate environmental and social aspects into the main management system of a firm. Sustainability management with the Balanced Scorecard helps to overcome the shortcomings of conventional approaches to environmental and social management systems by integrating the three pillars of sustainability into a single and overarching strategic management tool. After a brief discussion of the different possible forms of a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard the article takes a closer look at the process and steps of formulating a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard for a business unit. Before doing so, the basic conventional approach of the Balanced Scorecard and its suitability for sustainability management will be outlined in brief.