Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Tooth replacement for partially dentate elders: a willingness-to-pay analysis

Objectives: The primary aim of this study was to investigate partially dentate elders' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for two different tooth replacement strategies: Removable Partial Dentures (RPDs) and, functionally orientated treatment according to the principles of the Shortened Dental Arch (SDA). The secondary aim was to measure the same patient groups' WTP for dental implant treatment.Methods: 55 patients who had completed a previous RCT comparing two tooth replacement strategies (RPDs (n=27) and SDA (n=28)) were recruited (Trial Registration no. ISRCTN26302774). Patients were asked to indicate their WTP for treatment to replace missing teeth in a number of hypothetical scenarios using the payment card method of contingency evaluation coupled to different costs. Data were collected on patients' social class, income levels and other social circumstances. A Mann-Whitney U Test was used to compare differences in WTP between the two treatment groups. To investigate predictive factors for WTP, multiple linear regression analyses were conducted.Results: The median age for the patient sample was 72.0 years (IQR: 71-75 years). Patients who had been provided with RPDs indicated that their WTP for this treatment strategy was significantly higher (€550; IQR: 500-650) than those patients who had received SDA treatment (€500; IQR: 450-550) (p=0.003). However patients provided with RPDs indicated that their WTP for SDA treatment (€650; IQR: 600-650) was also significantly higher than those patients who had actually received functionally orientated treatment (€550; IQR: 500-600) (p<0.001). The results indicated that both current income levels and previous treatment allocation were significantly correlated to WTP for both the RPD and the SDA groups. Patients in both treatment groups exhibited little WTP for dental implant treatment with a median value recorded which was half the market value for this treatment (€1000; IQR: 500-1000).Conclusions: Amongst this patient cohort previous treatment experience had a strong influence on WTP as did current income levels. Both treatment groups indicated a very strong WTP for simpler, functionally orientated care using adhesive fixed prostheses (SDA) over conventional RPDs. Clinical significance: Partially dentate older patients expressed a strong preference for functionally orientated tooth replacement as an alternative to conventional RPDs.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

Review and analysis of solar thermal facades

Harnessing solar energy to provide for the thermal needs of buildings is one of the most promising solutions to the global energy issue. Exploiting the additional surface area provided by the building’s façade can significantly increase the solar energy output. Developing a range of integrated and adaptable products that do not significantly affect the building’s aesthetics is vital to enabling the building integrated solar thermal market to expand and prosper. This work reviews and evaluates solar thermal facades in terms of the standard collector type, which they are based on, and their component make-up. Daily efficiency models are presented, based on a combination of the Hottel Whillier Bliss model and finite element simulation. Novel and market available solar thermal systems are also reviewed and evaluated using standard evaluation methods, based on experimentally determined parameters ISO 9806. Solar thermal collectors integrated directly into the facade benefit from the additional wall insulation at the back; displaying higher efficiencies then an identical collector offset from the facade. Unglazed solar thermal facades with high capacitance absorbers (e.g. concrete) experience a shift in peak maximum energy yield and display a lower sensitivity to ambient conditions than the traditional metallic based unglazed collectors. Glazed solar thermal facades, used for high temperature applications (domestic hot water), result in overheating of the building’s interior which can be reduced significantly through the inclusion of high quality wall insulation. For low temperature applications (preheating systems), the cheaper unglazed systems offer the most economic solution. The inclusion of brighter colour for the glazing and darker colour for the absorber shows the lowest efficiency reductions (<4%). Novel solar thermal façade solutions include solar collectors integrated into balcony rails, shading devices, louvers, windows or gutters.

Dynalog: an automated dynamic analysis framework for characterizing android applications

Android is becoming ubiquitous and currently has the largest share of the mobile OS market with billions of application downloads from the official app market. It has also become the platform most targeted by mobile malware that are becoming more sophisticated to evade state-of-the-art detection approaches. Many Android malware families employ obfuscation techniques in order to avoid detection and this may defeat static analysis based approaches. Dynamic analysis on the other hand may be used to overcome this limitation. Hence in this paper we propose DynaLog, a dynamic analysis based framework for characterizing Android applications. The framework provides the capability to analyse the behaviour of applications based on an extensive number of dynamic features. It provides an automated platform for mass analysis and characterization of apps that is useful for quickly identifying and isolating malicious applications. The DynaLog framework leverages existing open source tools to extract and log high level behaviours, API calls, and critical events that can be used to explore the characteristics of an application, thus providing an extensible dynamic analysis platform for detecting Android malware. DynaLog is evaluated using real malware samples and clean applications demonstrating its capabilities for effective analysis and detection of malicious applications.

An analysis of wind curtailment and constraint at a nodal level

Many countries have set challenging wind power targets to achieve by 2020. This paper implements a realistic analysis of curtailment and constraint of wind energy at a nodal level using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the Irish Single Electricity Market in 2020. The key findings show that significant reduction in curtailment can be achieved when the system non-synchronous penetration limit increases from 65% to 75%. For the period analyzed, this results in a decreased total generation cost and a reduction in the dispatch-down of wind. However, some nodes experience significant dispatch-down of wind, which can be in the order of 40%. This work illustrates the importance of implementing analysis at a nodal level for the purpose of power system planning.

Fast and sensitive aflatoxin B1 and total aflatoxins ELISAs for analysis of peanuts, maize and feed ingredients

Aflatoxins are a group of carcinogenic compounds produced by Aspergillus fungi that can grow on different agricultural crops. Both acute and chronic exposure to these mycotoxins can cause serious illness. Due to the high occurrence of aflatoxins in crops worldwide fast and cost-effective analytical methods are required for the identification of contaminated agricultural commodities before they are processed into final products and placed on the market. In order to provide new tools for aflatoxin screening two prototype fast ELISA methods: one for the detection of aflatoxin B₁ and the other for total aflatoxins were developed. Seven monoclonal antibodies with unique high sensitivity and at the same time good cross-reactivity profiles were produced. The monoclonal antibodies were characterized and two antibodies showing IC₅₀ of 0.037 ng/mL and 0.031 ng/mL for aflatoxin B₁ were applied in simple and fast direct competitive ELISA tests. The methods were validated for peanut matrix as this crop is one of the most affected by aflatoxin contamination. The detection capabilities of aflatoxin B₁ and total aflatoxins ELISAs were 0.4 μg/kg and 0.3 μg/kg for aflatoxin B₁, respectively, which are one of the lowest reported values. Total aflatoxins ELISA was also validated for the detection of aflatoxins B₂, G₁ and G₂. The application of the developed tests was demonstrated by screening 32 peanut samples collected from the UK retailers. Total aflatoxins ELISA was further applied to analyse naturally contaminated maize porridge and distiller's dried grain with solubles samples and the results were correlated with these obtained by UHPLC-MS/MS method.