Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Intelligent Assembly Time Analysis Using a Digital Knowledge-Based Approach

The implementation of effective time analysis methods fast and accurately in the era of digital manufacturing has become a significant challenge for aerospace manufacturers hoping to build and maintain a competitive advantage. This paper proposes a structure oriented, knowledge-based approach for intelligent time analysis of aircraft assembly processes within a digital manufacturing framework. A knowledge system is developed so that the design knowledge can be intelligently retrieved for implementing assembly time analysis automatically. A time estimation method based on MOST, is reviewed and employed. Knowledge capture, transfer and storage within the digital manufacturing environment are extensively discussed. Configured plantypes, GUIs and functional modules are designed and developed for the automated time analysis. An exemplar study using an aircraft panel assembly from a regional jet is also presented. Although the method currently focuses on aircraft assembly, it can also be well utilized in other industry sectors, such as transportation, automobile and shipbuilding. The main contribution of the work is to present a methodology that facilitates the integration of time analysis with design and manufacturing using a digital manufacturing platform solution.

Learning and organization in the knowledge-based information economy: Initial findings from a participatory action research case study

This paper reports on an ongoing, multiphase, project-based action learning and research project. In particular, it summarizes some aspects of the learning climate and outcomes for a case study company In the software industry, Using a participatory action research approach, the learning company framework developed by Pedler et al, (1997) is used to initiate critical reflection in the company at three levels: managing director, senior management team and technical and professional staff. As such, this is one of the first systematic attempts to apply this framework to the entire organization and to a company in the knowledge-based learning economy. Two sets of issues are of general concern to the company: internal issues surrounding the company's reward and recognition policies and practices and the provision of accounting and control information in a business relevant way to all levels of staff; and external issues concerning the extent to which the company and its members actively learn from other companies and effectively capture, disseminate and use information accessed by staff in boundary-spanning roles. The paper concludes with some illustrations of changes being introduced by the company as a result of the feedback on and discussion of these issues.

Assessing parenting capacity in child protection: towards a knowledge-based model

The assessment of parenting capacity continues to engender public concern in cases of suspected harm to children. This paper outlines a model for approaching this task based on the application of three key domains of knowledge in social work relating to facts, theory and practice wisdom. The McMaster Model of Family Assessment is identified out of this process and reworked to give it a sharper focus on parenting roles and responsibilities. Seven formative dimensions of parenting are then elicited and combined with an analytical process of identifying strengths, concerns, prospects for growth and impact on child outcomes. The resulting assessment framework, it is argued, adds rigour to professional judgements about parenting capacity and enhances formulations on risk in child protection.

Towards a knowledge-based approach for effective decision-making in railway safety

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute towards understanding how safety knowledge can be elicited from railway experts for the purposes of supporting effective decision-making. Design/methodology/approach – A consortium of safety experts from across the British railway industry is formed. Collaborative modelling of the knowledge domain is used as an approach to the elicitation of safety knowledge from experts. From this, a series of knowledge models is derived to inform decision-making. This is achieved by using Bayesian networks as a knowledge modelling scheme, underpinning a Safety Prognosis tool to serve meaningful prognostics information and visualise such information to predict safety violations. Findings – Collaborative modelling of safety-critical knowledge is a valid approach to knowledge elicitation and its sharing across the railway industry. This approach overcomes some of the key limitations of existing approaches to knowledge elicitation. Such models become an effective tool for prediction of safety cases by using railway data. This is demonstrated using passenger–train interaction safety data. Practical implications – This study contributes to practice in two main directions: by documenting an effective approach to knowledge elicitation and knowledge sharing, while also helping the transport industry to understand safety. Social implications – By supporting the railway industry in their efforts to understand safety, this research has the potential to benefit railway passengers, staff and communities in general, which is a priority for the transport sector. Originality/value – This research applies a knowledge elicitation approach to understanding safety based on collaborative modelling, which is a novel approach in the context of transport.

Intellectual Property management in publicly funded R&D centres—A comparison of university-based and company-based research centres

Recent thinking on open innovation and the knowledge-based economy have stressed the importance of external knowledge sources in stimulating innovation. Policy-makers have recognised this, establishing publicly funded Centres of R&D Excellence with the objective of stimulating industry–science links and localised innovation spillovers. Here, we examine the contrasting IP management practices of a group of 18 university- and company-based R&D centres supported by the same regional programme. Our analysis covers all but one of the Centres supported by the programme and suggests marked contrasts between the IP strategies of the university-based and company-based centres. This suggests the potential for very different types of knowledge spillovers from publicly funded R&D centres based in different types of organisations, and a range of alternative policy approaches to the future funding of R&D centres depending on policy-makers’ objectives.

A Characteristic Function Approach to Inconsistency Measures for Knowledge Bases.

Knowledge is an important component in many intelligent systems.
Since items of knowledge in a knowledge base can be conflicting, especially if
there are multiple sources contributing to the knowledge in this base, significant
research efforts have been made on developing inconsistency measures for
knowledge bases and on developing merging approaches. Most of these efforts
start with flat knowledge bases. However, in many real-world applications, items
of knowledge are not perceived with equal importance, rather, weights (which
can be used to indicate the importance or priority) are associated with items of
knowledge. Therefore, measuring the inconsistency of a knowledge base with
weighted formulae as well as their merging is an important but difficult task. In
this paper, we derive a numerical characteristic function from each knowledge
base with weighted formulae, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.
Using these functions, we are able to measure the inconsistency of the knowledge
base in a convenient and rational way, and are able to merge multiple knowledge
bases with weighted formulae, even if knowledge in these bases may be
inconsistent. Furthermore, by examining whether multiple knowledge bases are
dependent or independent, they can be combined in different ways using their
characteristic functions, which cannot be handled (or at least have never been
considered) in classic knowledge based merging approaches in the literature.

Sandstone response to salt weathering following simulated fire damage: a comparison of furnace heating and fire.

Fire has long been recognized as an agent of rock weathering. Our understanding of the impact of fire on stone comes either from early anecdotal evidence, or from more recent laboratory simulation studies, using furnaces to simulate the effects of fire. This paper suggests that knowledge derived from simulated heating experiments is based on the preconceptions of the experiment designer – when using a furnace to simulate fire, the operator decides on the maximum temperature and the duration of the experiment. These are key factors in determining the response of the stone to fire, and if these are removed from realworld observations then knowledge based on these simulations must be questioned. To explore the differences between heating sandstone in a furnace and a real fire, sample blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone were subjected to different stress histories in combination (lime rendering and removal, furnace heating or fire, frost and salt weathering). Block response to furnace heating and fire is discussed, with emphasis placed on the non-uniformity of the fire and of block response to fire in contrast to the uniform response to surface heating in a furnace. Subsequent response to salt weathering (by a 10% solution of sodium chloride and magnesium sulphate) was then monitored by weight loss. Blocks that had experienced fire showed a more unpredictable response to salt weathering than those that had undergone furnace heating – spalling of corners and rapid catastrophic weight loss were evidenced in blocks that had been subjected to fire, after periods of relative quiescence. An important physical side-effect of the fire was soot accumulation, which created a waxy, relatively impermeable layer on some blocks. This layer repelled water and hindered salt ingress, but eventually detached when salt, able to enter the substrate through more permeable areas, concentrated and crystallized behind it, resulting in rapid weight loss and accelerated decay. Copyright ©2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Economic cost of age-related macular degeneration: a review of recent research

As the population of most developed countries ages so the prevalence of diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are likely to increase. To facilitate planning and informed debate regarding making provisions for this disease it is important that we have a clear understanding of the economic impact of visual impairment associated with AMD. In this paper we assess the state of current knowledge based on a review of published evidence in scientific journals. Based on our assessment of the evidence we argue that the paucity of research studies on the subject and wide variation in estimates produced from the few studies available make it difficult to assess with confidence the likely average direct cost-of-illness associated with AMD. We further argue that significant gaps in our understanding of the costs of AMD (particularly in respect of indirect costs) also exist. Current research should be augmented by more comprehensive studies.

An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems.

Use of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence to deal with uncertainty in knowledge-based systems has been widely addressed. Several AI implementations have been undertaken based on the D-S theory of evidence or the extended theory. But the representation of uncertain relationships between evidence and hypothesis groups (heuristic knowledge) is still a major problem. This paper presents an approach to representing such knowledge, in which Yen’s probabilistic multi-set mappings have been extended to evidential mappings, and Shafer’s partition technique is used to get the mass function in a complex evidence space. Then, a new graphic method for describing the knowledge is introduced which is an extension of the graphic model by Lowrance et al. Finally, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is specified.