12 resultados para expected utility theory
Resumo:
We present a comprehensive study of the observational dependence of the mass-loss rate in stationary stellar winds of hot massive stars on the metal content of their atmospheres. The metal content of stars in the Magellanic Clouds is discussed, and a critical assessment is given of state-of-the-art mass-loss determinations of OB stars in these two satellite systems and the Milky-Way. Assuming a power-law dependence of mass loss on metal content,. M. Z(m), and adopting a theoretical relation between the terminal flow velocity and metal content, v(infinity). Z(0.13) (Leitherer et al. 1992, ApJ, 401, 596), we find m = 0.83 +/- 0.16 for non-clumped outflows from an analysis of the wind momentum luminosity relation (WLR) for stars more luminous than 105.2 L circle dot. Within the errors, this result is in agreement with the prediction m = 0.69 +/- 0.10 by Vink et al. (2001, A& A, 369, 574). Absolute empirical values for the mass loss, based on Ha and ultraviolet (UV) wind lines, are found to be a factor of two higher than predictions in this high luminosity regime. If this difference is attributed to inhomogeneities in the wind, and this clumping does not impact the predictions, this would imply that luminous O and early-B stars have clumping factors in their Ha and UV line forming regions of about a factor of four. For lower luminosity stars, the winds are so weak that their strengths can generally no longer be derived from optical spectral lines (essentially Ha) and one must currently rely on the analysis of UV lines. We confirm that in this low-luminosity domain the observed Galactic WLR is found to be much steeper than expected from theory (although the specific sample is rather small), leading to a discrepancy between UV mass-loss rates and the predictions by a factor 100 at luminosities of L similar to 10(4.75) L circle dot, the origin of which is unknown. We emphasize that even if the current mass-loss rates of hot luminous stars would turn out to be overestimated as a result of wind clumping, but the degree of clumping would be rather independent of metallicity, the scalings derived in this study are expected to remain correct.
Resumo:
The valuation of environmental benefits has been well researched in the forestry sector. This is not generally the case in the agriculture sector although schemes to compensate farmers for provision of officially defined environmental benefits are already in place throughout the European Union. This paper draws on empirical findings from forestry and deductions from economic theory to challenge the notion of the universality of such benefits. Empirical findings from forestry suggest recreational use value is location specific rather than widely spread. Household utility theory predicts zero willingness to pay to maintain the status quo level of a previously unpaid for environmental benefit (when provision is not perceived as under risk) but a positive willingness to pay for an increase. Thus, non use values cannot be attributed to the major part of existing commercial forestry area but to spatially restricted schemes such as additional afforestation or preservation of ancient natural woodlands.
Resumo:
Partially ordered preferences generally lead to choices that do not abide by standard expected utility guidelines; often such preferences are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate five criteria for strategy selection in decision trees with imprecision in probabilities: “extensive” Γ-maximin and Γ-maximax, interval dominance, maximality and E-admissibility. We present algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria; our main contribution is an algorithm for Eadmissibility that runs over admissible strategies rather than over sets of probability distributions.
Resumo:
Binge drinking among adolescents in Northern Ireland is prevalent and has detrimental eff ects on public health. Health education interventions, based on valid explanatory models of health behaviour, are required to reduce binge drinking behaviour among adolescents. " is paper examines the utility of the " eory of Planned Behaviour in explaining binge drinking behaviour among adolescent males. Using questionnaire responses from 94 adolescent boys attending secondary schools in the Belfast area, logistic regression modelling suggested that the " eory of Planned Behaviour explained 36% of the variance in self-reported binge drinking behaviour. Attitudes towards binge drinking were the strongest predictor of binge drinking behaviour. Tackling attitudes about binge drinking is a challenge to be considered when designing interventions to reduce binge drinking among this population
Resumo:
Background: While significant strides have been made in health research, the incorporation of research evidence into healthcare decision-making has been marginal. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of how the utility of health services research can be improved through the use of theory. Integrating theory into health services research can improve research methodology and encourage stronger collaboration with decision-makers. Discussion: Recognizing the importance of theory calls for new expectations in the practice of health services research. These include: the formation of interdisciplinary research teams; broadening the training for those who will practice health services research; and supportive organizational conditions that promote collaboration between researchers and decision makers. Further, funding bodies can provide a significant role in guiding and supporting the use of theory in the practice of health services research. Summary: Institutions and researchers should incorporate the use of theory if health services research is to fulfill its potential for improving the delivery of health care. © 2005 Brazil et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Resumo:
An evolution in theoretical models and methodological paradigms for investigating cognitive biases in the addictions is discussed. Anomalies in traditional cognitive perspectives, and problems with the self-report methods which underpin them, are highlighted. An emergent body of cognitive research, contextualized within the principles and paradigms of cognitive neuropsychology rather than social learning theory, is presented which, it is argued, addresses these anomalies and problems. Evidence is presented that biases in the processing of addiction-related stimuli, and in the network of propositions which motivate addictive behaviours, occur at automatic, implicit and pre-conscious levels of awareness. It is suggested that methods which assess such implicit cognitive biases (e.g. Stroop, memory, priming and reaction-time paradigms) yield findings which have better predictive utility for ongoing behaviour than those biases determined by self-report methods of introspection. The potential utility of these findings for understanding "loss of control" phenomena, and the desynchrony between reported beliefs and intentions and ongoing addictive behaviours, is discussed. Applications to the practice of cognitive therapy are considered.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a discrete mixture model which assigns individuals, up to a probability, to either a class of random utility (RU) maximizers or a class of random regret (RR) minimizers, on the basis of their sequence of observed choices. Our proposed model advances the state of the art of RU-RR mixture models by (i) adding and simultaneously estimating a membership model which predicts the probability of belonging to a RU or RR class; (ii) adding a layer of random taste heterogeneity within each behavioural class; and (iii) deriving a welfare measure associated with the RU-RR mixture model and consistent with referendum-voting, which is the adequate mechanism of provision for such local public goods. The context of our empirical application is a stated choice experiment concerning traffic calming schemes. We find that the random parameter RU-RR mixture model not only outperforms its fixed coefficient counterpart in terms of fit-as expected-but also in terms of plausibility of membership determinants of behavioural class. In line with psychological theories of regret, we find that, compared to respondents who are familiar with the choice context (i.e. the traffic calming scheme), unfamiliar respondents are more likely to be regret minimizers than utility maximizers. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Resumo:
Beta diversity describes how local communities within an area or region differ in species composition/abundance. There have been attempts to use changes in beta diversity as a biotic indicator of disturbance, but lack of theory and methodological caveats have hampered progress. We here propose that the neutral theory of biodiversity plus the definition of beta diversity as the total variance of a community matrix provide a suitable, novel, starting point for ecological applications. Observed levels of beta diversity (BD) can be compared to neutral predictions with three possible outcomes: Observed BD equals neutral prediction or is larger (divergence) or smaller (convergence) than the neutral prediction. Disturbance might lead to either divergence or convergence, depending on type and strength. We here apply these ideas to datasets collected on oribatid mites (a key, very diverse soil taxon) under several regimes of disturbances. When disturbance is expected to increase the heterogeneity of soil spatial properties or the sampling strategy encompassed a range of diverging environmental conditions, we observed diverging assemblages. On the contrary, we observed patterns consistent with neutrality when disturbance could determine homogenization of soil properties in space or the sampling strategy encompassed fairly homogeneous areas. With our method, spatial and temporal changes in beta diversity can be directly and easily monitored to detect significant changes in community dynamics, although the method itself cannot inform on underlying mechanisms. However, human-driven disturbances and the spatial scales at which they operate are usually known. In this case, our approach allows the formulation of testable predictions in terms of expected changes in beta diversity, thereby offering a promising monitoring tool.
Resumo:
Complex collaboration in rapidly changing business environments create challenges for management capability in Utility Horizontal Supply Chains (UHSCs) involving the deploying and evolving of performance measures. The aim of the study is twofold. First, there is a need to explore how management capability can be developed and used to deploy and evolve Performance Measurement (PM), both across a UHSC and within its constituent organisations, drawing upon a theoretical nexus of Dynamic Capability (DC) theory and complementary Goal Theory. Second, to make a contribution to knowledge by empirically building theory using these constructs to show the management motivations and behaviours within PM-based DCs. The methodology uses an interpretive theory building, multiple case based approach (n=3) as part of a USHC. The data collection methods include, interviews (n=54), focus groups (n=10), document analysis and participant observation (reflective learning logs) over a five-year period giving longitudinal data. The empirical findings lead to the development of a conceptual framework showing that management capabilities in driving PM deployment and evolution can be represented as multilevel renewal and incremental Dynamic Capabilities, which can be further understood in terms of motivation and behaviour by Goal-Theoretic constructs. In addition three interrelated cross cutting themes of management capabilities in consensus building, goal setting and resource change were identified. These management capabilities require carefully planned development and nurturing within the UHSC.
Resumo:
Experimental and theoretical results are reported for photoionization of Ta-like (W+) tungsten ions. Absolute cross sections were measured in the energy range 16–245 eV employing the photon–ion merged-beam setup at the advanced light source in Berkeley. Detailed photon-energy scans at 100 meV bandwidth were performed in the 16–108 eV range. In addition, the cross section was scanned at 50 meV resolution in regions where fine resonance structures could be observed. Theoretical results were obtained from a Dirac–Coulomb R-matrix approach. Photoionization cross section calculations were performed for singly ionized atomic tungsten ions in their 5s25p65d4(5D)6s 6Dj. J = 1/2, ground level and the associated excited metastable levels with J = 3/2, 5/2, 7/2 and 9/2. Since the ion beams used in the experiments must be expected to contain long-lived excited states also from excited configurations, additional cross-section calculations were performed for the second-lowest term, 5d56Sj, J = 5/2, and for the 4F term, 5d36s2 4Fj, with J = 3/2, 5/2, 7/2 and 9/2. Given the complexity of the electronic structure of W+ the calculations reproduce the main features of the experimental cross section quite well.