A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

City of Dreams? Belfast, planning and the ‘myth’ of development

The future of Belfast is found in its plans – beginning with 1945 planning proposals to the recently adopted Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan, these documents have aimed to encourage and channel urban development processes to secure collective outcomes that enhance the public interest. Central to this objective has been the idea of ‘development’ and in this paper we interrogate the representation of this concept in the urban discourse of Belfast. We seek to do this by first exploring how ‘development’ and associated concepts are articulated in key spatial policy documents and then contrast these with examples of some of the key physical, spatial outcomes of economic processes that have occurred in the last ten years. The paper will review the dominant trajectories of urban change in Belfast, consider their implications and relate these to the official goals and aspirations represented in planning strategies and regeneration visions for the city. In doing this we draw on the recent work of Marcuse (2015) to identify how ideas of ‘development’ and ‘growth’ have been used to anonymise, harmonize and homogenise the outcomes of these spatial processes. The paper will conclude by considering how Belfast’s urban discourse acts to suppresses alternative visions of the city and explores the potential consequences of this for the new governance arrangements for planning in Belfast.