Genetic Algorithm Search for Predictive Patterns in Multidimensional Time Series

Based on an algorithm for pattern matching in character strings, we implement a pattern matching machine that searches for occurrences of patterns in multidimensional time series. Before the search process takes place, time series are encoded in user-designed alphabets. The patterns, on the other hand, are formulated as regular expressions that are composed of letters from these alphabets and operators. Furthermore, we develop a genetic algorithm to breed patterns that maximize a user-defined fitness function. In an application to financial data, we show that patterns bred to predict high exchange rates volatility in training samples retain statistically significant predictive power in validation samples.

Measuring inconsistency in network intrusion rules

In this preliminary case study, we investigate how inconsistency in a network intrusion detection rule set can be measured. To achieve this, we first examine the structure of these rules which incorporate regular expression (Regex) pattern matching. We then identify primitive elements in these rules in order to translate the rules into their (equivalent) logical forms and to establish connections between them. Additional rules from background knowledge are also introduced to make the correlations among rules more explicit. Finally, we measure the degree of inconsistency in formulae of such a rule set (using the Scoring function, Shapley inconsistency values and Blame measure for prioritized knowledge) and compare the informativeness of these measures. We conclude that such measures are useful for the network intrusion domain assuming that incorporating domain knowledge for correlation of rules is feasible.

Measuring Inconsistency in a Network Intrusion Detection Rule Set Based on Snort

In this preliminary study, we investigate how inconsistency in a network intrusion detection rule set can be measured. To achieve this, we first examine the structure of these rules which are based on Snort and incorporate regular expression (Regex) pattern matching. We then identify primitive elements in these rules in order to translate the rules into their (equivalent) logical forms and to establish connections between them. Additional rules from background knowledge are also introduced to make the correlations among rules more explicit. We measure the degree of inconsistency in formulae of such a rule set (using the Scoring function, Shapley inconsistency values and Blame measure for prioritized knowledge) and compare the informativeness of these measures. Finally, we propose a new measure of inconsistency for prioritized knowledge which incorporates the normalized number of atoms in a language involved in inconsistency to provide a deeper inspection of inconsistent formulae. We conclude that such measures are useful for the network intrusion domain assuming that introducing expert knowledge for correlation of rules is feasible.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.

Pre-Processing Power Traces with a Phase-Sensitive Detector

As cryptographic implementations are increasingly subsumed as functional blocks within larger systems on chip, it becomes more difficult to identify the power consumption signatures of cryptographic operations amongst other unrelated processing activities. In addition, at higher clock frequencies, the current decay between successive processing rounds is only partial, making it more difficult to apply existing pattern matching techniques in side-channel analysis. We show however, through the use of a phase-sensitive detector, that power traces can be pre-processed to generate a filtered output which exhibits an enhanced round pattern, enabling the identification of locations on a device where encryption operations are occurring and also assisting with the re-alignment of power traces for side-channel attacks.

Dense pixel matching between unrectified and distorted images using dynamic programming

In this paper, a novel framework for dense pixel matching based on dynamic programming is introduced. Unlike most techniques proposed in the literature, our approach assumes neither known camera geometry nor the availability of rectified images. Under such conditions, the matching task cannot be reduced to finding correspondences between a pair of scanlines. We propose to extend existing dynamic programming methodologies to a larger dimensional space by using a 3D scoring matrix so that correspondences between a line and a whole image can be calculated. After assessing our framework on a standard evaluation dataset of rectified stereo images, experiments are conducted on unrectified and non-linearly distorted images. Results validate our new approach and reveal the versatility of our algorithm.

An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Between-taxon matching of common and rare species richness patterns

Aim: Our primary aim is to understand how assemblages of rare (restricted range) and common (widespread) species are correlated with each other among different taxa. We tested the proposition that marine species richness patterns of rare and common species differ, both within a taxon in their contribution to the richness pattern of the full assemblage and among taxa in the strength of their correlations with each other. Location The UK intertidal zone. Methods: We used high-resolution marine datasets for UK intertidal macroalgae, molluscs and crustaceans each with more than 400 species. We estimated the relative contribution of rare and common species, treating rarity and commonness as a continuous spectrum, to spatial patterns in richness using spatial crosscorrelations. Correlation strength and significance was estimated both within and between taxa. Results: Common species drove richness patterns within taxa, but rare species contributed more when species were placed on an equal footing via scaling by binomial variance. Between taxa, relatively small sub-assemblages (fewer than 60 species) of common species produced the maximum correlation with each other, regardless of taxon pairing. Cross-correlations between rare species were generally weak, with maximum correlation occurring between small sub-assemblages in only one case. Cross-correlations between common and rare species of different taxa were consistently weak or absent. Main conclusions: Common species in the three marine assemblages were congruent in their richness patterns, but rare species were generally not. The contrast between the stronger correlations among common species and the weak or absent correlations among rare species indicates a decoupling of the processes driving common and rare species richness patterns. The internal structure of richness patterns of these marine taxa is similar to that observed for terrestrial taxa.