Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries

Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.

The Transverse Crack Tension test revisited: An experimental and numerical study

Several problems arise when measuring the mode II interlaminar fracture toughness using a Transverse Crack Tension specimen; in particular, the fracture toughness depends on the geometry of the specimen and cannot be considered a material parameter. A preliminary experimental campaign was conducted on TCTs of different sizes but no fracture toughness was measured because the TCTs failed in an unacceptable way, invalidating the tests. A comprehensive numerical and experimental investigation is conducted to identify the main causes of this behaviour and a modification of the geometry of the specimen is proposed. It is believed that the obtained results represent a significant contribution in the understanding of the TCT test as a mode II characterization procedure and, at the same time, provide new guidelines to characterize the mode II crack propagation under tensile loads.

Difference, Diversity and Difficulty: Problems in Adult Peace Education in Northern Ireland

The peace process in Northern Ireland has been hailed, variously, as the successful resolution to one of the world's most intractable conflicts, and as a failed attempt to reconcile the conflciting claims of the two main ethnonationalist communities. At both these points, and at every other point along the continuum, recognition is given to the centrality of education. This article looks at the role played by adult learning, and contrasts two fundamentally different apporaoches. In one, Enlightenment assumptions about the power of knowledge to dispel prejudice have run alongside attempts to create a world of shared values; in the other, a postmodern acceptance of different cultures has accompnaied a peace process that builds upon ethnic diistinctions. As with the Dayton Accord and with other peace agreements brokered with international assistance, the consociational model of governance has been chosen for Northern Ireland in order to create a political equilibrium between the unionists and nationalists. Such a political framework reverses the direction of previous integrationist educational policies in favour of a celebration of difference, an approach that is fraught with difficulties.

A panel of single locus minisatellite DNA probes for application to problems in salmonid aquaculture

Eleven minisatellite DNA locus specific probes, isolated from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) partial genomic DNA libraries, were tested for cross-hybridization to eleven other salmonid species, i.e. sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka); coho salmon (O. kisutch), chum salmon (O. keta); pink salmon (O. gorbuscha); chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha); rainbow trout (O. mykiss); brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis); Arctic charr (S. alpinus); grayling (Thymallus thymallus); huchen (Hucho hucho); pollan (Coregonus autumnalis). Simple single locus profiles for each of these species were revealed by, from two to ten SLPs. These markers are likely to be of great value in addressing several problems in aquaculture of these species.

Distribution-based adaptive bounding genetic algorithm for continuous optimisation problems

A new search-space-updating technique for genetic algorithms is proposed for continuous optimisation problems. Other than gradually reducing the search space during the evolution process with a fixed reduction rate set ‘a priori’, the upper and the lower boundaries for each variable in the objective function are dynamically adjusted based on its distribution statistics. To test the effectiveness, the technique is applied to a number of benchmark optimisation problems in comparison with three other techniques, namely the genetic algorithms with parameter space size adjustment (GAPSSA) technique [A.B. Djurišic, Elite genetic algorithms with adaptive mutations for solving continuous optimization problems – application to modeling of the optical constants of solids, Optics Communications 151 (1998) 147–159], successive zooming genetic algorithm (SZGA) [Y. Kwon, S. Kwon, S. Jin, J. Kim, Convergence enhanced genetic algorithm with successive zooming method for solving continuous optimization problems, Computers and Structures 81 (2003) 1715–1725] and a simple GA. The tests show that for well-posed problems, existing search space updating techniques perform well in terms of convergence speed and solution precision however, for some ill-posed problems these techniques are statistically inferior to a simple GA. All the tests show that the proposed new search space update technique is statistically superior to its counterparts.

Influence of prolonged hospitalization on overall bed occupancy: a five-year single-centre study

Background: Effective bed use is crucial to an efficient NHS. Current targets suggest a decrease in mean occupancy as the most appropriate method of improving overall efficiency. The elderly and those suffering from complex medical problems are thought to account for a high proportion of overall bed occupancy.

Aim: To assess the effect of prolonged hospital stay (>100 days) on overall bed occupancy in a modern teaching hospital.

Design: Retrospective analysis.

Methods: Analysis of all admission episodes (n = 117 178) over a five-year period in a large teaching hospital in a single UK region, serving a population of approximately 200 000. A logistic regression multi-factorial model was used to assess the effect of demographic and diagnostic variables on duration of stay.

Results: A prolonged stay (>100 days) was seen in 648 admission episodes (0.6%). These accounted for 11% of the overall bed occupancy over the 5-year period. Excluding all prolonged admission episodes from our analysis made no difference to the overall median length of stay.

Discussion: Prolonged hospitalizations have a significant impact on bed occupancy. Targeting these very long (>100 days) hospital stays may better improve overall efficiency, compared to targeting mean or median length of stay.

Nutrient regulation of pancreatic beta-cell function in diabetes: problems and potential solutions

increasing prevalence of obesity combined with longevity will produce an epidemic of Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes in the next 20 years. This. disease is associated with defects in insulin secretion, specifically abnormalities of insulin secretory kinetics and pancreatic beta-cell glucose responsiveness. Mechanisms underlying beta-cell dysfunction include glucose toxicity, lipotoxicity and beta-cell hyperactivity. Defects at various sites in beta-cell signal transduction pathways contribute, but no single lesion can account for the common form of Type 2 diabetes. Recent studies highlight diverse beta-cell actions of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) and GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide). These intestinal hormones target the beta-cell to stimulate glucose-dependent insulin secretion through activation of protein kinase A and associated pathways. Both increase gene expression and proinsulin biosynthesis, protect against apoptosis and stimulate replication/neogenesis of beta-cells. Incretin hormones therefore represent an exciting future multi-action solution to correct beta-cell defect in Type 2 diabetes.

“If I’m brutally honest research has never appealed to me …”: The Problems and Successes of a Peer Research Project

This paper describes the use of a peer research methodology to explore disaffected young people’s views on alternative education. This model was adopted in order to try to ensure an equilibrium of power between interviewer and interviewee, allow marginalised young people’s voices to be heard and help generate social action. The approach is examined from the perspective of both the peer research and adult research teams. An experiential and honest account is given including the problems and successes, as well as the lessons learned. The paper concludes by considering the value of the model, whether it helps to reach those alienated from education and any evidence that it provides an opportunity for them to have a stake in their future.