Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.

A Microbial Link to Weathering of Postglacial Rocks and Sediments, Mount Viso Area, Western Alps, Demonstrated through Analysis of a Soil/Paleosol Bio/Chronosequence

Understanding the mechanism associated with rates of weathering and evolution of rocks→sediment→soil→paleosol in alpine environments raises questions related to the impact of microbial mediation versus various diverse abiotic chemical/physical processes, even including the overall effect of cosmic impact/airburst during the early stage of weathering in Late Glacial (LG) deposits. This study is of a chronosequence of soils/paleosols, with an age range that spans the post–Little Ice Age (post-LIA; <150 yr), the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1500–1850), the middle Neoglacial (∼3 ka)–Younger Dryas (YD; <12.8 ka), and the LG (<15 ka). The goal is to elicit trends in weathering, soil morphogenesis, and related eubacterial population changes over the past 13–15 k.yr. The older LG/YD paleosols in the sequence represent soil morphogenesis that started during the closing stage of Pleistocene glaciation. These are compared with undated soils of midto late Neoglacial age, the youngest of LIA and post-LIA age. All profiles formed in a uniform parentmaterial ofmetabasalt composition and in moraine, rockfall, protalus, and alluvial fan deposits. Elsewhere in Europe,North America, and Asia, the cosmic impact/airburst event at 12.8 ka often produced a distinctive, carbon-rich “black mat” layer that shows evidence of high-temperature melting. At this alpine site, older profiles of similar LG age contain scorched and melted surface sediments that are otherwise similar in composition to the youngest/thinnest profiles developing in the catchment today. Moreover, microbial analysis of the sediments offers new insight into the genesis of these sediments: the C and Cu (u = unweathered) horizons in LG profiles present at 12.8 ka (now Ah/Bw) show bacterial population structures that differ markedly from recent alluvial/protalus sample bacterial populations. We propose here that these differences are, in part, a direct consequence of the age/cosmic impact/weathering processes that have occurred in the chronosequence. Of the several questions that emerge from these sequences, perhaps the most important involve the interaction of biotic-mineral factors, which need to be understood if we are to generally fully appreciate the role played by microbes in rock weathering.